March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years

[WinterWolf]

Haven't been too hot on this whole blockbuster set up my self...especially with so much time to go....but this happens with almost every significant system the last 5 years.....everything looks quite good, then it all goes to sh*t at this time lead...almost like clock work on all guidance.  Don't know why that is...but it seems to happen most everytime, then it trends back with the better sampling.  No guarantees it does it this time as well..but it would not surprise me one bit.  Still a lot of time to go here.  Keeping expectations tempered is so worth it until we are closer in, is the way to go to avoid the mood swings that you see in here today and every time with potential big ticket items.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I don't see that as an inhibitor. The - -PNA should help in this regard. The problem for us (generally) is this would result in a monster cutter (absent the -NAO block). The - - PNA/ - -AO combination should allow for significant phasing over the Plains in my view. Both streams are slow, and both disturbances are amped.

Right, and a better phase in the midwest cuts off any cold air we can possibly drain in when the secondary kicks in...so its a lose-lose scenario south of the pike.

[jbenedet]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Right, and a better phase in the midwest cuts off any cold air we can possibly drain in when the secondary kicks in...so its a lose-lose scenario south of the pike.

With minimal elevation in SNE, you need something really wrapped up. Sub 970ish. A nuke. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Right, and a better phase in the midwest cuts off any cold air we can possibly drain in when the secondary kicks in...so its a lose-lose scenario south of the pike.

Not if it's a Juggerknot system...dynamical cooling is what we've been hanging the hat on with this anyway in our areas....need a powerful system for us...but that's a big IF.

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, tamarack said:

And I saw nothing from either, even though I was 35 miles closer to the action than my current location.  Strike 3?

We would need a lot more help for this one up here.

[Ginx snewx]

Have seen several references to mood swings today. IDK seems like everyone is even keel and just discussing model output as it comes out. I have not read anyone make a forecast.  Lots of psychoanalytic forecasts. I agree with JC, some data ingested spit out less phasing, lower heights in Eastern Canada. Caribou peeps might be happy with a stout SW bringing them 6 to 12 but lowering heights up there can be a red flag.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

With minimal elevation in SNE, you need something really wrapped up. Sub 970ish. A nuke. 

Lets get the primary into upstate NY then we can discuss.

[OceanStWx]

16 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Clearly something about the initialization resulted in a major change. Every single model I am looking at went flatter.

I fully expect the Euro to do the same. If we see changes it will need to be with newer data.

The initialization over North America is pretty subtle to be honest. It's the downstream phasing later on that changes. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Have seen several references to mood swings today. IDK seems like everyone is even keel and just discussing model output as it comes out. I have not read anyone make a forecast.  Lots of psychoanalytic forecasts. I agree with JC, some data ingested spit out less phasing, lower heights in Eastern Canada. Caribou peeps might be happy with a stout SW bringing them 6 to 12 but lowering heights up there can be a red flag.

Seriously. Peeps over exaggerating with the psychoanalysis. Just let it go already.....just Give it 15min before it really becomes evident.

[dryslot]

I'm not expecting many answers from the Euro either today.

[JC-CT]

This is my attempt to illustrate what I mean about the changes to the ridging out west and the lack of phasing. Latest GFS run vs. a few days ago:

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro will most likely be almost a complete whiff . That will really push folks off deep end . But buyers are buying Will’s correction north 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I also said that models may settle on a big ticket at a relatively early juncture......that is a fail haha

[Ginx snewx]

One caveat on the tides Chris mentioned. Jan super bomb had a bulge of high water it pushed up all along it's path resulting in those super waves and tides. This system appears to be a more typical easterly long fetch which can be as brutal just takes longer to develop. Progression will be a major factor tide wise.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I'm not expecting many answers from the Euro either today.

I'd be pretty surprised if it wasn't kind of cruddy looking and south like other guidance. But sometimes it defies the trend like back in the Feb 2013 blizzard...about 84 hours out every model went pretty far SE to turn the event into pretty meh...then the Euro comes in at 1am and is still a 3 inch QPF stemwinder.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

One caveat on the tides Chris mentioned. Jan super bomb had a bulge of high water it pushed up all along it's path resulting in those super waves and tides. This system appears to be a more typical easterly long fetch which can be as brutal just takes longer to develop. Progression will be a major factor tide wise.

Probably end up with more erosion, less on the absolute peak height of the tide.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

With minimal elevation in SNE, you need something really wrapped up. Sub 970ish. A nuke. 

Below the pike.....north has a bit more margin..

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd be pretty surprised if it wasn't kind of cruddy looking and south like other guidance. But sometimes it defies the trend like back in the Feb 2013 blizzard...about 84 hours out every model went pretty far SE to turn the event into pretty meh...then the Euro comes in at 1am and is still a 3 inch QPF stemwinder.

Its funny you mention the Feb 13 event, Because this one is acting similar to that one as it looked Like from about here to CNE were cooked and this was going to remain a SNE event an low and behold the north trend as we got close and 28.5" later here the rest was history.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

Its funny you mention the Feb 13 event, Because this one is acting similar to that one as it looked Like from about here to CNE were cooked and this was going to remain a SNE event an low and behold the north trend as we got close and 28.50" later here the rest was history.

Wasn't 2013 during a +NAO

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

The initialization over North America is pretty subtle to be honest. It's the downstream phasing later on that changes. 

Yeah, that was noticeable today.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Wasn't 2013 during a +NAO

There had to be some blocking that low only made it up to about LI or so and then slowly moved out ENE i believe, Now that i go back and look, It was the Jan 15 one that i was referring too..........lol

[CT Valley Snowman]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

With minimal elevation in SNE, you need something really wrapped up. Sub 970ish. A nuke. 

There is some fairly high terrain areas down here as well,  the lower elevations below 500 feet are generally confined to the coastal plain and the larger river valleys with much of western  and central hilly sections of SNE at 500-2K   The starting point temps will be a bit warmer down here so we will need a dynamic system cooling things but not so sure it has to be sub 970 for at least those central and western hilly sections like ORH, BERKS, NW CT.

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I also said that models may settle on a big ticket at a relatively early juncture......that is a fail haha

No biggie, we'll just rip you for it, than move one.   We all have done it.  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

There is some fairly high terrain areas down here as well,  the lower elevations below 500 feet are generally confined to the coastal plain and the larger river valleys with much of western  and central hilly sections of SNE at 500-2K   The starting point temps will be a bit warmer down here so we will need a dynamic system cooling things but not so sure it has to be sub 970 for at least those central and western hilly sections like ORH, BERKS, NW CT.

Noticeable you left out NE hills with elevations 600-1200’

[ORH_wxman]

Pretty good Iceland block in Feb 2013...though the index was slightly positive because we had low heights to the west in the Labrador and Davis strait area.

 

This system def isn't the same evolution, but we can def find past mega-blocks where the storm trended north anyway...March 2013 and March 2001 are both examples off the top of my head.

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

There had to be some blocking that low only made it up to about LI or so and then slowly moved out ENE i believe, Now that i go back and look, It was the Jan 15 one that i was referring too..........lol

I think it was a well timed temporary high and a fair clean capture.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty good Iceland block in Feb 2013...though the index was slightly positive because we had low heights to the west in the Labrador and Davis strait area.

 

This system def isn't the same evolution, but we can def find past mega-blocks where the storm trended north anyway...March 2013 and March 2001 are both examples off the top of my head.

Gotcha, thanks. But I think March 2013 should be followed by "*" every time it is brought up. Can't rely on a fujiwara to get it done...

[ORH_wxman]

You can already tell this solution will be further south on the Euro at 54 hours...southern stream dragging its heels, so the phase will be less.

[Damage In Tolland]

Gonna be some classic melts over the next 30 minutes . Prepare 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can already tell this solution will be further south on the Euro at 54 hours...southern stream dragging its heels, so the phase will be less.

Yeah, Your not getting any answers to what you already have today.