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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I hate to ask this, but is the Euro the outlier now?  Or has it resumed its king status?

EuroWX map shows similar story as 12z, fyi. Need to dig into the details more... clown maps go wonky sometimes. I would lean towards a colder solution however with rates.

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On mobile now so cumbersome but seems to me 2 initial differences vs 12z:
- secondary develops slightly more north
- southern shortwave is much stronger

These are things we should be nowcasting/verifying as we go.

Later in the storm by 18z-0z Fri, there's a bigger slug of vorticity circulating north of the ULL

Pretty sizable shift in output by Euro standards right before go-time

As posted earlier tonight, these subtle changes in how vort lobes are handled will have huge impacts.

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2 minutes ago, Blizz said:

EuroWX map shows similar story as 12z, fyi. Need to dig into the details more... clown maps go wonky sometimes. I would lean towards a colder solution however with rates.

As I noted above, the 850 and 925 0C lines crash sooner than the 12z depiction.  It isn't just the clown maps.  No other model shows heights crashing this soon.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The modeling may have been a disappointment with this system, but I bet that we will remember the reality for a long time.

Honestly, I don't mind this uncertainty. We've been blessed with such massive storms in the past few years, or so it seems. I like the bit of surprise.

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