March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just looked back at the 92 and 97 systems evolution, surprisingly similar to this however the ULLS evolved NE while this one evolves SE taking all the energy with it. 

This one is actually going into a decaying SE ridge too...which has me a bit hesitant to sell the south idea too hard. Obviously if we get a really bad phase, then we're not going to get a big system, but the block should help with that...sort of force the shortwaves to converge in that zone between the block and SE ridge. We'll see. Lots of time.

[Ginx snewx]

The lack of an anchoring high in Eastern Canada on these 12 Z runs also is a concern. No definite solutions just discussion FYI

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I just want him to go back all-in on the shunt idea and then be forced to try and sell it when the guidance comes back north/phased.

This idea of a correction north with such strong blocking and confluence seems awful weenieish. But you’re selling it. I’m a buyer 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This one is actually going into a decaying SE ridge too...which has me a bit hesitant to sell the south idea too hard. Obviously if we get a really bad phase, then we're not going to get a big system, but the block should help with that...sort of force the shortwaves to converge in that zone between the block and SE ridge. We'll see. Lots of time.

agree way too early, ULLs are so similar, 92 and 97 both were basically exactly in the same position as the 12z GFS

[ORH_wxman]

GEFS spaghetti plots are a mess...there's def still a lot of spread.

 

 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This one is actually going into a decaying SE ridge too...which has me a bit hesitant to sell the south idea too hard. Obviously if we get a really bad phase, then we're not going to get a big system, but the block should help with that...sort of force the shortwaves to converge in that zone between the block and SE ridge. We'll see. Lots of time.

Pretty much all the NCEP spread is north of the low. We're not seeing a lot of spread on the SE side of things like we might normally see.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Pretty much all the NCEP spread is north of the low. We're not seeing a lot of spread on the SE side of things like we might normally see.

Yep...see spaghetti chart above...compact lines together near the OP and then a bunch way north.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep...see spaghetti chart above...compact lines together near the OP and then a bunch way north.

I was just looking at the Stony Brook spread tool (attempts to quantify spread to past events through M-climate), and the interesting thing is that the spread is high but not extreme. The early January bomb was extreme spread, this would be closer to "normal" spread expected for a significant system. 

But I think it's telling that this is all north and west of the mean.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'll bet the EURO is decent.

[wxeyeNH]

I was on the edge of the cliff up here yesterday and  I'll take the final leap in an hour.  I think this is pretty much a non-event up in central New England 

[jbenedet]

Today's runs seem oddly progressive to me...

We have teleconnections that argue for this shortwave to meander for days, and crawl where it sees fit,  and yet it makes it from California to Bermuda in 84 hrs on most recent guidance....

[dendrite]

Way more spread than 6z

[JC-CT]

goofus-ens

[JC-CT]

Just now, dendrite said:

Way more spread than 6z

freakin ninja

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dendrite said:

Way more spread than 6z

Noticeable move south. We buy Will’s north trend 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Today's runs seem oddly progressive to me...

We have teleconnections that argue for this shortwave to meander for days, and crawl where it sees fit,  and yet it makes it from California to Bermuda in 84 hrs on most recent guidance....

Yea, maybe I'll be wrong, but I have a hard time envisioning that this doesn't congeal underneath that block. Not getting sucked into to emotional swings, but I may reconsider if nothing changes by tmw PM.

[dendrite]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Noticeable move south. We buy Will’s north trend 

Notice those are all meh lows...990s/1000s. The further north ones are generally 970s.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

freakin ninja

Second time today too, I'm scoring.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Second time today too, I'm scoring.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, maybe I'll be wrong, but I have a hard time envisioning that this doesn't congeal underneath that block. Not getting sucked into to emotional swings, but I may reconsider if nothing changes by tmw PM.

Yea. I think the big reason for the SE shift is related to the weaker phasing over the plains. To my mind, the primary shortwave should phase more cleanly to our west and that, in turn would allow it to build UL heights more efficiently over the Northeast. The blocking shouldn't press this south so quickly, west of the Ohio River Valley. The significant blocking trajectory south/east makes more sense to me once it's closer to the east coast. This of course is more in line with yesterday afternoon's solutions. Basically, my best guess is we trend back towards what we saw yesterday at 12z. 

[dendrite]

Even if the Euro trends worse, give it another 24-36hrs to get the s/w's onshore and better sampled.

[OceanStWx]

17 hours ago, sbos_wx said:

What was the peak tide at BOS during that bomb when the Seaport flooded?

This could realistically be far worse.

Yeah, as Ginx said it is about a half foot lower along the coast this time around, but more persistent easterly flow may make up the difference. We're getting model alarms for moderate flooding at day 4 already, which it also did in early January. So confidence is high on coastal flooding impacts at this point.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea. I think the big reason for the SE shift is related to the weaker phasing over the plains. To my mind, the primary shortwave should phase more cleanly to our west and that, in turn would allow it to build UL heights more efficiently over the Northeast. The blocking shouldn't press this south so quickly, west of the Ohio River Valley. The significant blocking trajectory south/east makes more sense to me once it's closer to the east coast. This of course is more in line with yesterday afternoon's solutions. Basically, my best guess is we trend back towards what we saw yesterday at 12z. 

Isn't this the northern stream not digging enough? -PNA?

[JC-CT]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Even if the Euro trends worse, give it another 24-36hrs to get the s/w's onshore and better sampled.

Clearly something about the initialization resulted in a major change. Every single model I am looking at went flatter.

I fully expect the Euro to do the same. If we see changes it will need to be with newer data.

[dendrite]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Clearly something about the initialization resulted in a major change. Every single model I am looking at went flatter.

I fully expect the Euro to do the same. If we see changes it will need to be with newer data.

12z Hitler is further south again too.

[tamarack]

30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

agree way too early, ULLs are so similar, 92 and 97 both were basically exactly in the same position as the 12z GFS

And I saw nothing from either, even though I was 35 miles closer to the action than my current location.  Strike 3?

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12z Hitler is further south again too.

Maybe the navy was a little more wrapped up. But it was over bermuda at 6z, so...

[jbenedet]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Isn't this the northern stream not digging enough? -PNA?

I don't see that as an inhibitor. The - -PNA should help in this regard. The problem for us (generally) is this would result in a monster cutter (absent the -NAO block). The - - PNA/ - -AO combination should allow for significant phasing over the Plains in my view. Both streams are slow, and both disturbances are amped.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Maybe the navy was a little more wrapped up. But it was over bermuda at 6z, so...

 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I don't see that as an inhibitor. The - -PNA should help in this regard. The problem for us (generally) is this would result in a monster cutter (absent the -NAO block). The - - PNA/ - -AO combination should allow for significant phasing over the Plains in my view. Both streams are slow, and both disturbances are amped.

Yeah, I said -PNA but I think I really mean +EPO.