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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The Hi-res RGEM went from 8-12" in 2 consecutive cycles over SE MA to nada. 

Pretty much the signature of this event. Some models improve and some get worse, and by the end of the cycle it’s basically a wash.

Im done trying to figure out what is going to happen. Maybe as the flip ( if it happens) closes in.. things will become clearer. This storm has been brutal though. Feels like it was a waste of time regardless of the outcome. 

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

At this point, who cares. If a model is that unstable 24 hours out, wipe your a$$ with it first and ask questions later.

The problem is the model may have changed a layer by like 0.5c and the snow algorithm wipes out 6” of snow due to a very subtle shift.

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5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pretty much the signature of this event. Some models improve and some get worse, and by the end of the cycle it’s basically a wash.

Im done trying to figure out what is going to happen. Maybe as the flip ( if it happens) closes in.. things will become clearer. This storm has been brutal though. Feels like it was a waste of time regardless of the outcome. 

Yup.. really wanted the models to get an idea with this long before now, instead of watching it swing wildly from run to run or suite to suite.

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3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The problem is the model may have changed a layer by like 0.5c and the snow algorithm wipes out 6” of snow due to a very subtle shift.

Regardless....who cares. We know its that marginal, so the changes lose significance because its within the realm of noise.

Personally, I'd rather sit on an oozie and rotate, than scan the assortment of meso guidance for every .3* change that will reverse next hour.

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12 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The Hi-res RGEM went from 8-12" in 2 consecutive cycles over SE MA to nada. 

That just shows how close we are to something meaningful.  This is one of those rare cases I would love to see all the models bust because of ~1 degree C difference at the mid levels, flipping us over hours sooner.  But it probably isn't happening.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's another good one for our own entertainment....what are the odds that ORH gets more snow than ITH? You'd think ITH should finally win this time...but the NE wind at ITH makes me cringe over the next 9 hours...when it finally turns north where they do well, they dont have much time left in the good precip.

 

Worcester NY on I-88 FTW I think.

I 100%agee with Wills call,at the bottom ,Worcester NY 1- 88 for the win....all open area on that stretch of 1-88 and the snow drifts there are like mountains!...although speaking of mountains ,Hunter Mountain May approache 4feet is the latest word around here...so they could beat Worcester ny by a foot! Coating here 30 min east of Worcester at 12:15 am,,,,so it begins...Good luck and stay safe out there,,,winds,floods,rains,mix,snows...hold on men!

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Bold but achievable forecast map Ray

At the rates we see tomorrow afternoon, just 1 hour faster cooling will make a huge difference.

Also still think we are 24 hours away from the "overtime" firehouse period... those meso-lows slinging into eastern SNE could bring surprises.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Regardless....who cares. We know its that marginal, so the changes lose significance because its within the realm of noise.

Personally, I'd rather sit on an oozie and rotate, than scan the assortment of meso guidance for every .3* change that will reverse next hour.

It really has become nauseating. If you told me on Sunday this is where we’d be at this point, i would have paid very little attention. The models did just enough to keep people interested, but never consistently delivered anything really good.

This is prob the most mind numbing event I’ve been a part of since I joined the board five years ago.

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It really has become nauseating. If you told me on Sunday this is where we’d be at this point, i would have paid very little attention. The models did just enough to keep people interested, but never consistently delivered anything really good.

This is prob the most mind numbing event I’ve been a part of since I joined the board five years ago.

You’re exhausting.

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15 minutes ago, Bigfoot said:

I 100%agee with Wills call,at the bottom ,Worcester NY 1- 88 for the win....all open area on that stretch of 1-88 and the snow drifts there are like mountains!...although speaking of mountains ,Hunter Mountain May approache 4feet is the latest word around here...so they could beat Worcester ny by a foot! Coating here 30 min east of Worcester at 12:15 am,,,,so it begins...Good luck and stay safe out there,,,winds,floods,rains,mix,snows...hold on men!

16 miles northeast of Middleburgh here.  Town of Knox, but just south of Delanson.  31 and snowing. Almost an inch.

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