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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

GFS looks better tomorrow evening. Definitely further north with the mid level erly flow after 00z.

Its amazing how even just some wobbles in the lobes of vorticity slinging around the ULL really have a huge impact on the firehose. That's going to be hard to predict....because like 4-6 hours difference could be pretty big sensible wx changes.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Its amazing how even just some wobbles in the lobes of vorticity slinging around the ULL really have a huge impact on the firehose. That's going to be hard to predict....because like 4-6 hours difference could be pretty big sensible wx changes.

There are vort lobes and meso lows everywhere. How the heck is that modeled well.

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1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

For verification later on. Let's hope this over-performs, definitely going to be some weird snowfall distribution without a doubt either way!

Send me your totals once it's all said and done. 

03_01.18_snow_forecast_1.thumb.jpg.0f3f8d44065309c56706592528fbcf11.jpg

So I SEE you came around to JB’s thinking somewhat?  We don’t have to bump your post like you told us a couple days ago...lol.,

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

So I SEE you came around to JB’s thinking somewhat?  We don’t have to bump your post like you told us a couple days ago...lol.,

You and 40/70 with completely different forecasts, I believe you have the correct idea but time will tell

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Makes you miss the NGM right?

Lets reduce the resolution a bit.....

I'd take the 00z Ukie look (plymouth still comes out, but their maps have no sfc level anymore and 700mb is just height/vectors....lol...but its all you need to really see)

Mar2_00zUkie500.gif.edeb07ee505915b2bb47a3fd6b6062a2.gifMar2_00zUkie700.gif.e6ba0f30ddf9fa60e99afaa85d7ab67c.gifMar2_00zUkie850.gif.8fe4f50b94e11c3bd95204047855888e.gif

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So I SEE you came around to JB’s thinking somewhat?  We don’t have to bump your post like you told us a couple days ago...lol.,

Well that isnt 2-3" in the city and 6-12" for the majority of SNE, first of all. 

Second, i admitted that i was wrong (possibly) and made a forecast based on the current modeling, whilest swallowing my pride.

Also, to be fair, it hasnt even begun yet and well see tomorrow night what happens, still could be a non-event for CT after it's all said and done. You can requote me, Saturday, i have no problem admitting i was wrong. 

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3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Well that isnt 2-3" in the city and 6-12" for the majority of SNE, first of all. 

Second, i admitted that i was wrong (possibly) and made a forecast based on the current modeling, whilest swallowing my pride.

Also, to be fair, it hasnt even begun yet and well see tomorrow night what happens, still could be a non-event for CT after it's all said and done. 

I agree!  I think its a non event for most too.  Maybe next Wednesday will be the better one???  We hope.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lets reduce the resolution a bit.....

I'd take the 00z Ukie look (plymouth still comes out, but their maps have no sfc level anymore and 700mb is just height/vectors....lol...but its all you need to really see)

I always heard it was less susceptible to convective feedback, but I have no idea if it's true anymore.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The GFS has ORH with a temp of 44F at 18z tomorrow. What's the Vegas line on how much it's off by too high? I'd set the line at +/- 9F or so.

That's pretty bad. The 12z run didn't get ORH below 40 until 06z. Saturday!

That included tonight (already 39 last hour).

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36 minutes ago, Logan11 said:

It's had a clue on several events here this year. The gfs thermals around ALB already seem to be busting. ALB in the lowlands at 37/27. Northerly drain effective.

 

38/30 here, about 10 miles south of the airport, but it started as snow!  Wet bulb 35F.  Wasn't expecting snow to start.  

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That's pretty bad. The 12z run didn't get ORH below 40 until 06z. Saturday!

That included tonight (already 39 last hour).

Here's another good one for our own entertainment....what are the odds that ORH gets more snow than ITH? You'd think ITH should finally win this time...but the NE wind at ITH makes me cringe over the next 9 hours...when it finally turns north where they do well, they dont have much time left in the good precip.

 

Worcester NY on I-88 FTW I think.

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