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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

IDK Bob this is like this in my hood for 6 hrs. 10 inches in 6 hrs, crazy

nam_2018030200_024_41.81--71.73.png

I'm hoping for a flip around 8-9pm tomorrow night than 6-8hrs of fun.  I think the TT totals are low here but the Pivotal ones are a bit weenie-ish.  Think 4-6" is realistic with potential upside.

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5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Even ACY gets almost a foot on that run, lol. 

 

Its definitely possible somewhere between NYC and PHL that major snows will occur.  Its so unusual to see that sort of setup where due west of the 850/700 lows in that position there is not significant snow.  Even in a marginal air mass like this.

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So much is dependent on the northern extent of the upper low's dominant easterly flow. The more robust solutions are snowier as they really firehose SNE for a good 8-12 hours with legit heavy precip after the flip to snow. The weaker solutions are further south and they shut things down after maybe only 3-5 hours of meaningful heavy snow. 

NAM at 00z was weaker and south. We want something that is closer to the 12z NAM and 18z rgem. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

So much is dependent on the northern extent of the upper low's dominant easterly flow. The more robust solutions are snowier as they really firehose SNE for a good 8-12 hours with legit heavy precip after the flip to snow. The weaker solutions are further south and they shut things down after maybe only 3-5 hours of meaningful heavy snow. 

NAM at 00z was weaker and south. We want something that is closer to the 12z NAM and 18z rgem. 

Guess it's a location thing but that was pretty crazy down here

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

So much is dependent on the northern extent of the upper low's dominant easterly flow. The more robust solutions are snowier as they really firehose SNE for a good 8-12 hours with legit heavy precip after the flip to snow. The weaker solutions are further south and they shut things down after maybe only 3-5 hours of meaningful heavy snow. 

NAM at 00z was weaker and south. We want something that is closer to the 12z NAM and 18z rgem. 

does that have the have to do with the strength of the upper low...in terms of the dominance of the easterly flow? What dictates the strength of the upper low and how it weakens? 

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I would feel better about underachieving winds where Ryan lives but being in far ECT puts me near that EMA core.  Think gust to 50 here. 

Oh yeah... 50 mph is reasonable. 

That's generally not enough for big issues around here. 

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Guess it's a location thing but that was pretty crazy down here

They are all pretty crazy but it wasn't as good as 18z for your backyard either. I guess you wouldn't want 12z run since that one had a wonky dryslot. 

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9 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Oh yeah... 50 mph is reasonable. 

That's generally not enough for big issues around here. 

As long as there is no wet snow. Jan 2011 was probably the highest winds I have had in a winter storm ENE winds wise. March 13 was pretty incredible too with rolling waves of high gusts . Imagine this will be similar

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

So much is dependent on the northern extent of the upper low's dominant easterly flow. The more robust solutions are snowier as they really firehose SNE for a good 8-12 hours with legit heavy precip after the flip to snow. The weaker solutions are further south and they shut things down after maybe only 3-5 hours of meaningful heavy snow. 

NAM at 00z was weaker and south. We want something that is closer to the 12z NAM and 18z rgem. 

I’m okay with the NAM... it all is a crap shoot in the end I think. Pick a model and you get a different solution.

I don’t hate my location for this. Seems like once it gets cold enough we should have some heavy precip left. How long is the big question.

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

So much is dependent on the northern extent of the upper low's dominant easterly flow. The more robust solutions are snowier as they really firehose SNE for a good 8-12 hours with legit heavy precip after the flip to snow. The weaker solutions are further south and they shut things down after maybe only 3-5 hours of meaningful heavy snow. 

NAM at 00z was weaker and south. We want something that is closer to the 12z NAM and 18z rgem. 

I'm hedging that it sneaks more northward relative to guidance.

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