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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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We are definitely warming aloft overnight. But it’s not like a SWFE where temps keep climbing. These will eventually cut off late tonight and the mid level air mass becomes stale. So it’s all about that stale air mass that we have to overcome. All modeling is showing rapid cooling aloft around 18z.

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I wonder if how things tilt will play a significant role with regards to the warming. This is where I wish I was good at the calculus...and knew how to apply all those equations. It seems like a slight difference in how the system is tilted will make a big difference in the degree of warmth that works in...both at the sfc and llvl's. 

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1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

Just had a 32mph gust...winds are cranking already, wasn't expecting that until tomorrow morning at least... temp down to 43 Td @32

I think inland gusts could exceed  50. This thing has many surprises .You rotate some of those meso lows inland and all hell breaks loose.  It’s really impossible for anyone to feel confident in any aspect of this as it’s kind of uncharted water. By morning we should have an idea which way to lean 

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2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

00z 3KM NAM is even stronger with the 10m wind gusts, over 95mph over the Outer Cape from Hyannis eastward gusts could approach 100mph or higher as mesolows get involved.  This is a very dangerous and life threatening wind threat for the Cape Cod through Cape Ann

hopefully your computer gets blown away and you lose your novels 

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I'm leaning light on snowfall for this location.  Maybe a slushy inch or two, could even get shutout if everything breaks wrong. Maybe I'll be surprised with more but most models do not like north central Ct and the southern Pioneer Valley.  Boundary layer is an inferno, and by the time the ML temps start crashing the best forcing/firehose shifts east and south and we kind of get jumped over here with some catpaws to finish.  Hopefully I'm wrong but that's kind of the way I'm seeing things.

 

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