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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wonder if the ORH hills start as snow late tonight (after a few drops to wetbulb down)? A lot of guidance has marginal snow profile there...then the warm nose sneaks in for a while before the flip back to snow.

Someone (Ryan maybe) mentioned that earlier...  it’s 43 now at my house...but would not be shook

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I've been thinking about this today and I also asked my professor if we would discuss dynamic cooling in our current class but is there really any way to gauge how that process evolves and when it begins to evolve...and what models would have the physics built into them to resolve this the best? Given the strength of the dynamics and degree of upward vertical motion here you would have to think the process of cooling due to air rising rapidly would occur rather quickly...I'm just trying to visualize how precipitation falling through the atmosphere (heavily) enhances this process more. If the secondary becomes too amped too quickly does this reduce the influences dynamic cooling has? Is there also a region where dynamic cooling has the biggest influences with respect to the dynamics? 

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8 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I feel like things are pretty much on track. I'd like to see a better upstream low level airmass (Tw pretty high in NH and ME) but it is what it is. I think it's just too warm in the valley here for more than and inch or two. 

my snow map is probably going to be big time toast...like embarrassingly toast 

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19 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I feel like things are pretty much on track. I'd like to see a better upstream low level airmass (Tw pretty high in NH and ME) but it is what it is. I think it's just too warm in the valley here for more than and inch or two. 

Yeah I would be more excited if we had dews in the teens to mid 20s today. But 50s over 30 with full mixing isn’t ideal.

Once the lift gets going it shouldn’t take too long though to get the column there.

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Latest HRRR seems to have slipped a decent bit south with the low...more of a EURO trajectory.  Decent change in the last 3 hours of runs in how far north the precip firehose sets up midday tomorrow.

It significantly dropped the QPF for spots like SVT and Monadnocks that it had a couple runs ago.  Interesting to see if its a blip or a trend.

Y6xuUIr.png

tr9ftWG.png

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Latest HRRR seems to have slipped a decent bit south with the low...more of a EURO trajectory.  Decent change in the last 3 hours of runs in how far north the precip firehose sets up midday tomorrow.

It significantly dropped the QPF for spots like SVT and Monadnocks that it had a couple runs ago.  Interesting to see if its a blip or a trend.

Y6xuUIr.png

tr9ftWG.png

It also warms temperatures during the day despite a N wind. Probably not right...probably same reason that was described the other day

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It also warms temperatures during the day despite a N wind. Probably not right...probably same reason that was described the other day

Mid-level temperatures also rise a bit though.  It's not like there's a lot of cold air up here.  Heck here in N.VT we will likely be a little warmer than places getting crushed by precip.  There's really no cold air to "drain down" on a north wind.

Like BDL has a lower H85 temperature at 5am tomorrow than they do at 10am as that mid-level warmth rotates inland from the east for a time.  Similar to what ORH/Will was talking about if the ORH Hills start as snow then go to rain before going back to snow.

I bet we'll see some excited posts tomorrow morning if its snowing in some nearby hill locations like Litchfield County and northern ORH Hills as people think its closer than it should be, but there is a period of mid-level warmth that causes temps to rise into the middle of the day.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Mid-level temperatures also rise a bit though.  It's not like there's a lot of cold air up here.  Heck here in N.VT we will likely be a little warmer than places getting crushed by precip.  There's really no cold air to "drain down" on a north wind.

Like BDL has a lower H85 temperature at 5am tomorrow than they do at 10am as that mid-level warmth rotates inland from the east for a time.  Similar to what ORH/Will was talking about if the ORH Hills start as snow then go to rain before going back to snow.

I bet we'll see some excited posts tomorrow morning if its snowing in some nearby hill locations like Litchfield County and northern ORH Hills as people think its closer than it should be, but there is a period of mid-level warmth that causes temps to rise into the middle of the day.

I’d guess that idea doesn’t happen. My guess is if it’s snow in morning in x location.. they stay snow for duration under banding 

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I think we don't pay attention to the Catskills just because they are outside of our regional subforum but they do big storms pretty well. 

Directed more at the folks in the lower elevations, They haven't done well at all....lol

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