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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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I'm at 100ft so thats pretty bad, but i'm up on the 3rd story so i should be looking at a foot easy. 

In seriousness though I might be eating my words calling this a non snow event for CT but it's not over till it's over and then well see whats what.

I'm putting out a map later after digesting the 12/18 suite. 

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19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

BOX has the high end amount of 15” at FIT and 1” for the low end. Sounds about right.

It's nuts how straight through even NY State the ranges are 3-30" for SYR for low/high end and like 1-19" for ALB. 

Thats insane for like 12 hours before precip starts.

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14 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

Which model had the low in South PA about this stage, the NAM? I can't remember, I know a couple had it near Buf at this stage

I was actually just looking at that. Maybe the old eyes are playing tricks, but it seems south of several of the projections. Definitely south of GFS. Euro had it around Youngstown, looks closer to Pittsburgh. Not sure that makes any difference whatsoever.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So in your mind.. what amounts are you thinking around these parts?

Honestly I don't know.  Was thinking about my family's lakehouse at 800ft in Woodstock and think 3-12" is a fair forecast lol?  

The other thing with the progs... maybe they are just wrong with how far inland the best moisture sprays.  Maybe with those 50-70kt winds off the deck it transports further downwind into your area like March 2013 style.  

This event is crazy for the amount of variables that are going into it. 

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1 minute ago, Hoth said:

I was actually just looking at that. Maybe the old eyes are playing tricks, but it seems south of several of the projections. Definitely south of GFS.

I just went back and checked, the NAM had it pretty consistent, and the GFS had it for a run, but yeah, seems a bit south of guidance... about time for transfer..

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31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I don’t envy you guys in SNE forecasting this for a living tonight. What a crazy amount of uncertainty for just 12-24hrs before. 

 I am a 20-30 min walk from the WSW line.  Greenfield is a 2-10" scenario, how do you even forecast  that if you are on air?

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KBOX with a man TAF for Logan.

 

KBOS 012331Z 0200/0306 10006KT P6SM BKN140 
  FM020300 04010KT P6SM OVC050 
  FM020700 04015G24KT 4SM -RA BR OVC012 
  FM021000 04020G30KT 2SM -RA BR OVC008 WS020/05055KT 
  FM021400 03026G40KT 2SM +RA BR OVC008 WS020/04065KT 
  FM021800 03028G54KT 2SM +RA BR OVC008 WS020/04075KT 
  FM022300 03030G58KT 1 1/2SM -RA BR OVC020 WS020/04060KT 
  FM030400 01025G49KT 1SM -RASN BR OVC020 WS020/03055KT

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Honestly I don't know.  Was thinking about my family's lakehouse at 800ft in Woodstock and think 3-12" is a fair forecast lol?  

The other thing with the progs... maybe they are just wrong with how far inland the best moisture sprays.  Maybe with those 50-70kt winds off the deck it transports further downwind into your area like March 2013 style.  

This event is crazy for the amount of variables that are going into it. 

Yeah.. just kinda seems like we need to wait until early morning and see where the storm bombs out. Is it off AC or is it just off LI .. it’s an impossible forecast . Other than NW Hills up to Berks who may be close to jack.. the rest of us in SNE can get 2” or 18”

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