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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

One thing that's sort of interesting for parts of CT in this, and I'm not trying to debbie anyone, just speaking what is being shown is that the firehose is north of CT when it is at it's longest fetch.

Then as the firehose slides south it seems to be more tied to Eastern New England when the dynamic cooling really takes over.  The HRRRX actually looks to flip the coastal plain in Mass over a bit before say the high terrain of NE CT just because of the precip rates.

ISdSyhj.png

As it slides south and rots tomorrow evening/night it seems to keep the firehose precip band more in E.MA/RI.

It'll be interesting to see it develop and could lead to what some were speculating as sort of a gap in snowfall somewhere in there.  As once the best thermals move in, the precip band is up north and then curls SE. 

NX7IdlN.png

hVlvTJY.png

I am somewhat optimistic for some snow here based on what you have illustrated. Several major models now show something in that neighborhood 

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I am somewhat optimistic for some snow here based on what you have illustrated. Several major models now show something in that neighborhood 

A sort of local maximum in E.MA south of BOS is starting to make sense to me if these progs are on the right idea.  The moisture feed seems to become more tied to within a certain distance from the ocean tomorrow evening, and although you guys don't have the elevation, you are in some seriously steady precipitation of just constant 0.1-0.2" per hour type stuff after the column has cooled aloft.

Sort of like the RGEM, it would argue for some decent possibility for a fun Friday night there for heavy wet snow.  What are the elevations like in SE Mass?  Anywhere get up near like 400-500ft? 

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

One thing that's sort of interesting for parts of CT in this, and I'm not trying to debbie anyone, just speaking what is being shown is that the firehose is north of CT when it is at it's longest fetch.

Then as the firehose slides south it seems to be more tied to Eastern New England when the dynamic cooling really takes over.  The HRRRX actually looks to flip the coastal plain in Mass over a bit before say the high terrain of NE CT just because of the precip rates.  This thing just mauls E.MA though on this prog.

ISdSyhj.png

As it slides south and rots tomorrow evening/night it seems to keep the firehose precip band more in E.MA/RI.

It'll be interesting to see it develop and could lead to what some were speculating as sort of a gap in snowfall somewhere in there.  As once the best thermals move in, the precip band is up north and then curls SE. 

NX7IdlN.png

hVlvTJY.png

So in your mind.. what amounts are you thinking around these parts?

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A sort of local maximum in E.MA south of BOS is starting to make sense to me if these progs are on the right idea.  The moisture feed seems to become more tied to within a certain distance from the ocean tomorrow evening, and although you guys don't have the elevation, you are in some seriously steady precipitation of just constant 0.1-0.2" per hour type stuff after the column has cooled aloft.

Sort of like the RGEM, it would argue for some decent possibility for a fun Friday night there for heavy wet snow.  What are the elevations like in SE Mass?  Anywhere get up near like 400-500ft? 

Blue Hills just SW of Boston is 635 feet.  Probably the best-elevated spot near the coast to watch.  I don't see any place in SE Mass over 300 feet.

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17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

A sort of local maximum in E.MA south of BOS is starting to make sense to me if these progs are on the right idea.  The moisture feed seems to become more tied to within a certain distance from the ocean tomorrow evening, and although you guys don't have the elevation, you are in some seriously steady precipitation of just constant 0.1-0.2" per hour type stuff after the column has cooled aloft.

Sort of like the RGEM, it would argue for some decent possibility for a fun Friday night there for heavy wet snow.  What are the elevations like in SE Mass?  Anywhere get up near like 400-500ft? 

Maybe Sharon Foxboro area? Parts of Taunton rise to close to 200 feet in the prospect hill area... not to far from me.

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17 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Blue Hills just SW of Boston is 635 feet.  Probably the best-elevated spot near the coast to watch.  I don't see any place in SE Mass over 300 feet.

Tim Kelly said on the nooncast that the Blue Hill summit could get 10" while Boston gets an inch.

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Welp ...this will be a first for me. 

I've never seen a 525 DAM cold core low have problems snowing in a CCB ... not like this one will ... apparently. eh hm.   It almost needs to find a rare set of circumstantial variables to cause a depth like that to ballast liquid.   Perhaps this is one of those times... But I was talking to Harv and it almost pains us to have to concede to that - very strange...   It would almost make sense if this thing had a core punch of snow close to those cold heights at the core, which means... a ptype ring circus.  You could be snowing out in the Capital district...raining in between... with a snow ball rolling temporarily west under LI when the sfc low (probably) Fuji's during capture.  Wouldn't that be an amazing rareness... 

I gotta wonder about a bigger wind storm potential... we have a 70 kt 925 mb jet coming dead-long on a west fist through heights that are unstable relative to these warm layers beneath. I'm wondering what surprises that may hold in store.  Interesting.  Oh..heh heh.. .right, Wind WARNING is foisted.

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