powderfreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 28 minutes ago, snowgeek said: I'm looking at the Helderberg Escarpment (1600') out my classroom window right now (400'), about to drive home (225'). Tomorrow should be quite interesting. Our school has 2 bus runs on the escarpment and the rest down here. Roads might be fine down here while the mountain gets destroyed. Tough snow day call. Will the precip be heavy enough for dynamic cooling down here in the valley? All hail the NAM! Thatcher Park all the way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Anyone notice how the nam has that secondary slug of moisture for e mass again between 6z and 12z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Best forecast I can find so far as far as NWS zone forecasts go. 18-24" of snow with winds up to 55mph...sign me up in the Catskills. Detailed forecast for Western Greene Tonight Snow or rain. Snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches. Cold with lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Friday Snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Additional snow accumulation of 12 to 16 inches. Windy and much cooler. Near steady temperature around 30. North winds 20 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph, increasing to 55 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Friday Night Cloudy. Snow, mainly in the evening. Total snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches. Very windy and cold. Near steady temperature around 30. North winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph, diminishing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 80 percent. * WHAT...Heavy wet snow and gusty winds expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 24 inches, with localized amounts up to 30 inches, are expected. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph are possible tomorrow afternoon into the evening producing blowing and drifting snow. * WHERE...Schoharie, Western Albany, Western Greene and Western Ulster Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Woah look at 8z Saturday on the 18z RGEM...! Those slingshotting mesolows really do benefit eastern SNE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: Woah look at 8z Saturday on the 18z RGEM...! Those slingshotting mesolows really do benefit eastern SNE... These large expanding upper lows often have some surprises with them and they can "overstay their welcome" so to speak. As the low tries to drift SE, the expanding circulation tries to offset that some and keep us in the firing line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Best forecast I can find so far as far as NWS zone forecasts go. 18-24" of snow with winds up to 55mph...sign me up in the Catskills. Detailed forecast for Western Greene Tonight Snow or rain. Snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches. Cold with lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Friday Snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Additional snow accumulation of 12 to 16 inches. Windy and much cooler. Near steady temperature around 30. North winds 20 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 45 mph, increasing to 55 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Friday Night Cloudy. Snow, mainly in the evening. Total snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches. Very windy and cold. Near steady temperature around 30. North winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph, diminishing to 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph after midnight. Chance of snow 80 percent. You're just trying to torture us, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The wife is locking the knife drawer at 12z tomorrow. I have somehow been able to remain emotionally unattached to this storm. Maybe the December 92 analogs have kept me in check but I refuse to let myself get caught up in the what if or what could have been if we even had a Canadian moose fart of cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Box map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: You're just trying to torture us, right? I'm not there either... Torturing myself too maybe? I think that's been a lock for days and days in New York. Just fun to read the high end impact statements. Anyway, if folks in SNE don't think anything has been cleared up... I was just seeing that the BGM NWS office has the probabilities for SYR: 10% probability is 30" and the 90% probability is 3". So 3-30" it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If I knew it was going to be 2 inches of slush, I wouldn't have made the post I made. you forgot Bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2-2 so far with 18z models better for Central and eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 My son's ski club is cancelled for the second week in a row due to weather. At this rate their running out of night skiing schedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 In hindsight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Yeah nam and rgem similar with outer band as ULL expands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 RGEM looks great for E areas after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: 2-2 so far with 18z models better for Central and eastern areas German is "better" too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: My son's ski club is cancelled for the second week in a row due to weather. At this rate their running out of night skiing schedule Same here. I told them last night either rain closes the mountain a Friday )WaWa...unlikely) or a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: German is "better" too. Du Hast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 When the best met I know of for MBY is feeling unsure about 3-20” I feel better about my confusion lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z RGEM is a pretty good improvement for eastern folks...really prolongs the firehose...still going at 06z. Is it prolonged garbage, or prolonged accumulation potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: When the best met I know of for MBY is feeling unsure about 3-20” I feel better about my confusion lol Yea, he and scooter are top of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: These large expanding upper lows often have some surprises with them and they can "overstay their welcome" so to speak. As the low tries to drift SE, the expanding circulation tries to offset that some and keep us in the firing line. 18z NAM did something similar Something to watch. Some would say we're searching for scraps at this point in eastern SNE, but I'm still not 100% certain the synoptics of the low centers can't subtly improve with a disproportionate improvement in outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 16 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Woah look at 8z Saturday on the 18z RGEM...! Those slingshotting mesolows really do benefit eastern SNE... I fear it will be south of me...am mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 RGEM P-Type... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Clown maps be damned, Eastern folks see some solid snow accum with that look on the REGM. Looks to be about 0.5 to 0.7+ melted equiv in the form of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Clown maps be damned, Eastern folks see some solid snow accum with that look on the REGM. Looks to be about 0.5 to 0.7+ melted equiv in the form of snow. Is there less up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 GFS is coming in a bit more wrapped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Same here. I told them last night either rain closes the mountain a Friday )WaWa...unlikely) or a foot of snow. I just called to ask about a closing date for night skiing and at this point there isn't one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is there less up here? It does swing decent Lift and RH through so my guess even you could get into some decent bands. Wish we had soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I fear it will be south of me...am mobile. Here you go Ray... at same timepoint 12z had nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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