STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I know Diane would. She was always cool like that There is a nice resort for 160$/nite that i could justify better splitting. But this will prolly gotta be 2 nites Since i need to stay in room/resort during day friday thru evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: What I feel like we are seeing occur is the northern stream s/w is so strong it rips around the base of the closed off ULL and that tugs what would normally be a great closed ULL S and E with it and pulling all the best dynamics with it. Just now, wxsniss said: Just looking at stuff quickly: Look at Euro hour 30... you think that cluster of lows arcing around the benchmark should consolidate just east of the Cape. Then at hour 36 it abruptly jumps > 150 miles to southeast of the benchmark. Without that abrupt jump southeast, we'd have a nuke blizzard. I wish I could dismiss it, but the 0z Euro and most guidance today does the same jump. Why is it making that jump? I think it's what I posted early this morning/last night: the bulk of vorticity is southeast of our ULL... vs. 4/97 when the bulk of vorticity circled north and even northwest of our ULL. Is there a chance this depiction could evolve? I think so, and the hi-res models (3k NAM, HRDPS, even 6z-12z RGEM shift) hint that we could get a closer consolidation. But this is getting close. Could every model (Euro, GFS, CMC in particular) continue to be blind to the thermals and dynamic cooling? Sure, but would be more confident if at least 1 model (in addition to NAM) somehow overcame the thermal issues with a big snow hit in eastern SNE. My post from an hour ago that fell on deaths ears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Heading west to catskills from ASH Any weenies wanna go 21 buns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Just looking at stuff quickly: Look at Euro hour 30... you think that cluster of lows arcing around the benchmark should consolidate just east of the Cape. Then at hour 36 it abruptly jumps > 150 miles to southeast of the benchmark. Without that abrupt jump southeast, we'd have a nuke blizzard. I wish I could dismiss it, but the 0z Euro and most guidance today does the same jump. Why is it making that jump? I think it's what I posted early this morning/last night: the bulk of vorticity is southeast of our ULL... vs. 4/97 when the bulk of vorticity circled north and even northwest of our ULL. Is there a chance this depiction could evolve? I think so, and the hi-res models (3k NAM, HRDPS, even 6z-12z RGEM shift) hint that we could get a closer consolidation. But this is getting close. Could every model (Euro, GFS, CMC in particular) continue to be blind to the thermals and dynamic cooling? Sure, but would be more confident if at least 1 model (in addition to NAM) somehow overcame the thermal issues with a big snow hit in eastern SNE. I said the same thing...need to see at least one blizzard model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I know Diane would. Does the motel allow guinea pigs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 with this thing all rain ... how would people grade the winter thus far - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I said the same thing...need to see at o least one blizzard model. Ray look at 12z gefs individual members A couple turn the lights out in SNH /NE mass even w the warm thermals 12z gfs had best 850's i seen on any global and the flip was faster and ooo So close to much faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: with this thing all rain ... how would people grade the winter thus far - D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: with this thing all rain ... how would people grade the winter thus far - A+...freezing cold and snowy December and January, Christmas day snow, a 12''+ blizzard, and then a beautiful transition to spring. Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Heading west to catskills from ASH Any weenies wanna go Where you headed? I'm thinking of driving up to the Hunter area early in the am before things get bad and spending the day/night in like Tannersville. Really depends on what it's doing imby when I wake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: with this thing all rain ... how would people grade the winter thus far - D- This would be a no affect/ push if all rain due to the ferocity of it and the coastal aspects. Rain bad, coast destruction good (not really) I was thinking D-F already due to below average snow, lots of ice due to melting/refreezing, little retention, lots of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: My post from an hour ago that fell on deaths ears. 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I said the same thing...need to see at least one blizzard model. Yeah I hear ya... it's easy to feel our posts get unrecognized, but I think they just get lost in the shuffle. No slight intended on my end, I just haven't had time to read through, let alone analyze the guidance as much as I want. 18z NAM looked maybe ticking slightly west with the surface low through 24 hrs... we'll take it here in eastern SNE... still have time to improve and want to see other models come towards NAM, not the other way around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Yeah I hear ya... it's easy to feel our posts get unrecognized, but I think they just get lost in the shuffle. No slight intended on my end, I just haven't had time to read through, let alone analyze the guidance as much as I want. 18z NAM looked maybe ticking slightly west with the surface low through 24 hrs... we'll take it here in eastern SNE... still have time to improve and want to see other models come towards NAM, not the other way around ... and that's related to pieces of vorticity that circled west of the ULL (not as robust in 12z run)... this is a good trend I think the more we can get energy to circle north/northwest of our ULL, the better chance of countering that jump southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 19 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: Does the motel allow guinea pigs? Actually, I could probably sneak my guinea pigs into a motel easier than a dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Where you headed? I'm thinking of driving up to the Hunter area early in the am before things get bad and spending the day/night in like Tannersville. Really depends on what it's doing imby when I wake up. Go for it. The more posters we can get there the better for the obs thread lol. Im really jealous. They get some QPF whoppers up there on prolonged east flow. If I still lived near ALB I'd be there in a heartbeat. 1800-2000ft is the real deal elevation for hanging out at a ski area base like Hunter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The Euro showing more snow in NYC than BOS when no mid level low center ever comes close to BOS means it’s wrong for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 ... and with that slight southwest low position, 18z NAM looks a little warmer than 12z for coastal SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: ... and that's related to pieces of vorticity that circled west of the ULL (not as robust in 12z run)... this is a good trend I think the more we can get energy to circle north/northwest of our ULL, the better chance of countering that jump southeast Those usually align with deathbands, that's why I always look at them. It really tries hard to nail the NYC metro this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, wxsniss said: ... and with that slight southwest low position, 18z NAM looks a little warmer than 12z for coastal SNE Yea. Great trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 We need Mitch to report in from his VT house. That would be an epic weenie g2g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Russian Collusion on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Hurricane Force winds for the Cape and Islands, could reach or go over 90mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 135 pages and counting for a storm that may ultimately produce little snow. Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Wow EURO showing snowfall for Cape and Islands and SE MA, when would that occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 NAm has a nice weenie band into BOS area through 6z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 NAM is a smidge warmer - that low is definitely tucked in a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Now that is sort of a firehose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Nam not wavering whole helping E Mass . It’s on it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: NAM is a smidge warmer - that low is definitely tucked in a bit more. And this is a good trend, how? Every trend sucks for a different reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea. Great trend. Verbatim output was not so pretty... but I think our best shot of something more significant is a more tucked consolidation of the lows and slower jump south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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