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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The reality is that the distribution curve is shifted to sit on our snowfall forecast. So if you picture a bell curve, or something similar, there is a tail that is well below zero. But since you can't get negative snowfall (unless someone steals it), it comes out as 0. 

Omfg, I'm dying

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On the 12z RGEM, 20z is the time for the changeover at my house (850 temps plummet).  The accu. precip before that is in between 1.25 to 1.5 in.  When precip stops, I have 3 to 3.5 inches liquid equivalent.  I still think 1-2 inches of LE equivalent of paste is possible for the coastal plain after the changeover.

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Based on the new data-we have to be careful...slight trends south and a bit colder......If this trend continues today with new data, this will mean a quicker changeover to snow in the northeast and to points east and may mean boosting totals a bit.  Far from etched in stone...but this is the way it looks like right now.

Big Time Heavy Wet Snowfall all areas west of the Hudson Valley/NY area to the east

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Kinda still looks like $hit east..  ugh

Yeah nail-biter of a forecast... I don't think any model at the moment verbatim depicts warning level snowfall Bos-metrowest, but there are 2 huge caveats:

1) thermal profiles are at least partially underestimating dynamic cooling, and this is an extremely good scenario for that

2) potential to bomb out closer and longer stall, which is clearly still in flux within 24 hours of go-time

That high ceiling low floor again. Areas along southcoast bordering RI went from maybe 1-2" to > foot in 6z vs. 12 HRPDS run.

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