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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

There will be some surprises with this. I haven't even given up all hope here. I just don't expect to see modeling bring me any encouragement up until go-time.

True. I guess I should preface it by saying I'd only want snow if it was double digit mashed potatoes with shotgun blasts. Anything short of that I'm all set. 

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12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Good trends today. If I can't have a biggie I'm cheering on the lower QPF. 0.35" on the GFS would be a big win. Freshet cancel.

I think Central NH on North should have higher totals with this. Monadnocks could do really well also. With the further east track early on, the mid levels don't get torched. This is true for VT and North Western ME as well. I think a lot of the qpf early on could fall as snow. Thoughts?

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Should be fairly interesting here, not that 500' is a lot but it will make tomorrow evening fun hopefully. Like others have said, big question is how efficiently does it accumulate after the flip given we have about a 9 hour window to work with.

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s definitely warm at 925 as Ryan said. Tough to know how real that is.

It has the T-TD spread at 925 too...it basically starts around 900mb and gets worse as you go down the column.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It has the T-TD spread at 925 too...it basically starts around 900mb and gets worse as you go down the column.

Yeah we toss that part. I can’t recall this before? Usually it’s just biased mild,  but what is up with that?

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16 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I think Central NH on North should have higher totals with this. Monadnocks could do really well also. With the further east track early on, the mid levels don't get torched. This is true for VT and North Western ME as well. I think a lot of the qpf early on could fall as snow. Thoughts?

This was so close in orh hills and esp up towards Monads going wall to wall. In fact thats prolly a monads mauler

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26 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I think Central NH on North should have higher totals with this. Monadnocks could do really well also. With the further east track early on, the mid levels don't get torched. This is true for VT and North Western ME as well. I think a lot of the qpf early on could fall as snow. Thoughts?

I think this will be like Dec 92 where I sit and watch on radar as the precip line stop 5 miles from my house and I smoke cirrus with occasional flurries while 25 miles south gets a foot,.  On the plus side my driveway will not need cleaning off.

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Wish I had more time to analyze and contribute this morning...

12zNAM standing it's ground, 12z RGEM caving to a more intense and stalled solution... all I needed to see.

As discussed last night, evolution / timing / consolidation of the various low centers makes all the difference

Those meso-lows hurled into eSNE esp on the 3K NAM and RGEM will worsen wind impacts, reminds me of meso-lows in a hurricane

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

The "experimental" snow forecast on GYX's website looks bizarre, but probably only reflects the low confidence of forecasts for this event.  The "most likely" for Farmington is <1", but there's a 10% chance of 14".  (And a 10% chance of nada.)  I expect some sheet drizzle on 30 mph gusts - lovely. 

The reality is that the distribution curve is shifted to sit on our snowfall forecast. So if you picture a bell curve, or something similar, there is a tail that is well below zero. But since you can't get negative snowfall (unless someone steals it), it comes out as 0. 

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17 minutes ago, klw said:

I think this will be like Dec 92 where I sit and watch on radar as the precip line stop 5 miles from my house and I smoke cirrus with occasional flurries while 25 miles south gets a foot,.  On the plus side my driveway will not need cleaning off.

I think you do well before this closes off...

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