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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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  On 3/1/2018 at 2:59 PM, powderfreak said:

I think it'll be a bust if they only see 18".

Those places saw 3 feet in 1992 and 1997.  

They get crushed on east flow like this and it's been very consistent in the models there.

My guess is some spots in there are 24-36".

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Maybe, truth be told I don't care.

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  On 3/1/2018 at 3:02 PM, correnjim1 said:

if i could wish us a two foot blizzard i would...but i'm being realistic for my area.....we'll see a few mangled flakes...people still calling for any thing more then wind and heavy rain is delusional

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Why?  We have a lot of respected folks differing with you here.  They’re all delusional?

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  On 3/1/2018 at 11:31 AM, powderfreak said:

Man not sure the last time I saw 40" amounts spit out like they are over the Catskills on the 3km run.

u0iwefn.png

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Oneonta ftw there--wow.

  On 3/1/2018 at 2:26 PM, weathafella said:

And mpm will be in Maine at pit2 I think.

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Yes I will.  I'm not sure how I'm getting there.  I'm pretty sure a transcontinental flight landing at JFK at 5:00a.m. will be going.  I'm not sure of my 10:00a.m. connection to PWM.  I've reserved a car just in case.  A rainy, windy drive if that's the case.  It would suck.

What's the thinking on flights.....am I screwed going into PWM because of wind? Landing at 11:00am.  Too bad JetBlue doesn't fly into Bangor.  Maybe they to to Burlington.

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  On 3/1/2018 at 3:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Maybe, truth be told I don't care.

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Ha yeah figure most of this forum doesn't but it'll be interesting to see the final totals out there.  They upslope beautifully into 2-4kft terrain from the 150ft Hudson Valley and will get the highest percentage of QPF as snow bring back west.  

Anyway on to more 12z models.

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  On 3/1/2018 at 3:10 PM, powderfreak said:

Ha yeah figure most of this forum doesn't but it'll be interesting to see the final totals out there.  They upslope beautifully into 2-4kft terrain from the 150ft Hudson Valley and will get the highest percentage of QPF as snow bring back west.  

Anyway on to more 12z models.

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rgem still pretty much sucks

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  On 3/1/2018 at 3:07 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Usually these capture later and further ne a hair relative to guidance.

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Yea, and I think a gradual rise in the PNA could translate into less Northern stream digging and that southern stream shortwave getting out ahead of the UL trough. I'm def hedging a NEMO-esque correction with this...

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  On 3/1/2018 at 3:13 PM, jbenedet said:

Yea, and I think a gradual rise in the PNA could translate into less Northern stream digging and that southern stream shortwave getting out ahead of the UL trough. I'm def hedging a NEMO-esque correction with this...

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That is why I pulled the rug out west on Nemo and got killed by them for it, but was right. I called the EURO on BS.

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Any predictions on the storm surge heights in Boston? I note the NWS is calling for 3-4 feet.  4 feet at tomorrow's high tide would set a  high water level record.  Be pretty odd to have set the record twice in one winter after almost 100 years (since 1921) of record keeping.

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  On 3/1/2018 at 3:07 PM, weathafella said:

Why?  We have a lot of respected folks differing with you here.  They’re all delusional?

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nothing personal....i have a differing opinion....and the only people i think are being delusional are people thinking we get big snows here....i'm only speaking for my area no one else's  

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