dryslot Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Sloppy inch for me while the rest of the subforum makes naked snow angels in the dark? I think there going to be quite a few more in the same camp as you with having to rely on dynamics for heavy snow, A lot of things need to go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Jeez, NAM doesn't want to let go. catches that thing and spins it back in to the delight of westerners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is basically National Grid's nightmare around here after 21z. Paste+ with 50kt winds? That low backing from SE of ACK to S of BID is the nightmare coastal flooding scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: That low backing from SE of ACK to S of BID is the nightmare coastal flooding scenario It is. If those winds can stay up through 3-4z, that will be terrible. Will be curious to see how it ramps up for the 1st tide after 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is basically National Grid's nightmare around here after 21z. Paste+ with 50kt winds? At UI we are currently forecasting gusts to 55mph, 1-3 inches of rain and 2 or more inches is snow. All around mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The flooding and the wind is certainly going to be some of the highest impacts in SNE more so then the snow, The coast is going to get an absolute beat down in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 We're probably going to see a lot of tide gauges with little to no water drop between tides Friday. Those east winds are going to prevent water receding. A place like Hampton may see water over the roads for 12+ hours Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 If that stall happens a bit more NE, it's pretty obvious the snow scenario gets more interesting east of ORH too. Low level winds are really backed to NNE in the aftn. That is normally good for keeping it fairly cold with lower dews advecting in. Just need to eradicate the 850 warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Also nowhere for fresh water runoff to go when the tides will be this high, so coastal areas may get a "surprise" flood event out of that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: The flooding and the wind is certainly going to be some of the highest impacts in SNE more so then the snow, The coast is going to get an absolute beat down in some areas. ASOUT. The snow aspect has been a side distraction to what I think will be the real show. Surfs Up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I still can't get over the potential in the Catskills. Gonna be some big totals coming out of that area. I think the ALY forecast for that area is low but honestly, 12-24" gets the word out. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albany NY 400 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 NYZ047-051-058-063-011800- /O.UPG.KALY.WS.A.0005.180302T0500Z-180303T0800Z/ /O.NEW.KALY.WS.W.0007.180302T0500Z-180303T0800Z/ Schoharie-Western Albany-Western Greene-Western Ulster- Including the cities of Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, Prattsville, Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, and Sundown 400 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 18 inches, with localized amounts up to 24 inches, are expected. Im so close to booking a hotel there Theres One or two i found at 1800' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Not really...maybe some mild similarities in that it had a vort out ahead of the main energy diving in...but the difference is this one does the full capture/phase whereas Feb 2013 didn't achieve that until northeast of us when ti was SW of Nova Scotia. You can loop it here: http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us0208.php http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us0209.php Thanks Will. I dunno, to me the H5 similarities seem remarkable. And as you said with the southern stream Vort running out ahead of the H5 trough, I think we could see something similar with a last minute trend northeast... The 12z NAM continued this trend, particularly at H5, with the later close off and building downstream UL heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Im so close to booking a hotel there Theres One or two i found at 1800' For 18"? Who cares....we've seen that so many times.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I'll stick to my 8-12" and hope the NAM verifies with 20 IMBY...flooding is going to be a serious concern on the coast for sure, astronomical high tide, three cycles worth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: For 18"? Who cares....we'v seen that so many times.. It certainly won’t be violent like in ern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 45 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: nothing Do you add anything anymore or just verbal diarrhea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, sbos_wx said: Do you add anything anymore or just verbal diarrhea sorry i'm being to realistic for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Im so close to booking a hotel there Theres One or two i found at 1800' Base of Hunter or Tannersville, NY is at at least 1800ft I think? That's the golden ticket for jackpot this event I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: For 18"? Who cares....we've seen that so many times.. There gonna bang. The ceiling is 40" Waiting on 12z data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, correnjim1 said: sorry i'm being to realistic for you Why are you so down? You act like you live in Savannah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: There gonna bang. The ceiling is 40" Waiting on 12z data I would have gone to Catskills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Im so close to booking a hotel there Theres One or two i found at 1800' Pickles, I was in Geneva,NY last weekend. If you can get out soon today you could be there in 5 hours. Nice hotels for under $100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It certainly won’t be violent like in ern areas. You don't think they'll see some good wind at those 2000ft towns? Only issue is having larger terrain all around you blocks the free motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: For 18"? Who cares....we've seen that so many times.. lol. I’d slap a homeless person for 18”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I think the Berks do better than the Catskills, but can't argue with either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: For 18"? Who cares....we've seen that so many times.. I think it'll be a bust if they only see 18". Those places saw 3 feet in 1992 and 1997. They get crushed on east flow like this and it's been very consistent in the models there. My guess is some spots in there are 24-36". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, powderfreak said: Be of Hunter or Tannersville, NY is at at least 1800ft I think? That's the golden ticket for jackpot this event I think. Im just a bit Concerned about getting OUT of there Deep east flow, upslope Area. I would say 20" is Close to floor at 2k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3kNAM is ridic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Nah go to the Catskills for this one. Liberty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I would have gone to catkills Thats what i am talking about I mentioned beckett ma earlier and im thinking catskills Has higher floor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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