DomNH Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Almost an inverted trough look at 06z....not sure I'd buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, JC-CT said: Happened to RI in 2013. It could happen. That was completely different setup I think the place that happens is probably CC or the islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: Pete, Hippy, Hunchie and MPM.....ftw That would be quite painful for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, DomNH said: LOL there is the ASH jackpot run. My turn! It is so close in S NH (not south North Haven). The previous NAMs had a little warm nose of +2-3C around 850, but if that's more of a figment than reality it could paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thats like 2’ here...yea ok. Solid 30 inches in litchfield lol though I wouldn’t be surprised if that actually happened there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, DomNH said: Almost an inverted trough look at 06z....not sure I'd buy that. 6z tomorrow or Sat? 6z Fri just looks like the redeveloping secondary to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, OceanStWx said: It is so close in S NH (not south North Haven). The previous NAMs had a little warm nose of +2-3C around 850, but if that's more of a figment than reality it could paste. Still evident on the 12z soundings but it does seem to wash out near 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That was completely different setup I think the place that happens is probably CC or the islands It is the #2 CIPS analog right now. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F048&rundt=2018030100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Pete, Hippy, Hunchie and MPM.....ftw And mpm will be in Maine at pit2 I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: That would be quite painful for us. This has been a non event here for a few days now with that blocking, Congrats to the western folks down in MA and NW CT, Its looked good in that area for several runs, The folks east of there, Its going to be a battle to flip before they lose the heavy rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Def seeing a trend further northeast over time, before the full phase and capture...I think this trend needs to be watched closely. Would mean more snow for all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: 6z tomorrow or Sat? 6z Fri just looks like the redeveloping secondary to me. Saturday. And then precip rates just die after that. I think the quick exit after 06z is a real thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: And mpm will be in Maine at pit2 I think. Yes, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That was completely different setup I think the place that happens is probably CC or the islands Anyway, 3km isn't quite so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Still evident on the 12z soundings but it does seem to wash out near 21z Yep. 18-21z you can see 850s cooling from the west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Anyway, 3km isn't quite so bad. Maybe some of the Mets could comment on if it makes synoptic sense or not or maybe where it’s more likely to end up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Def seeing a trend further northeast over time, before the full phase and capture...I think this trend needs to be watched closely. Would mean more snow for all... Yes it would be snowier. NAM really goes insane with the firehose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Anyway, 3km isn't quite so bad. This would be a kick in the teabag if that verified, Being so close, Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, DomNH said: LOL there is the ASH jackpot run. My turn! we pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Man that 12z NAM run "dry slots" SNE pretty good. The snow growth zone gets pretty dry. I "" because it could just be because the overall temps are so warm that the snow growth zone is dry, but lower levels are saturated enough for widespread precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Even on this weenie-azz NAM run I'd hesitate to get that excited for eastern areas as far as big accumulations. No one is sniffing 10:1 so even if we can bang out an inch of QPF after 21z, some of which is probably wasted at the onset while it's still daylight, I wouldn't expect more than a few inches of slop. I'm not old enough to remember April '97 and wasn't alive for December '92 so maybe I'm underplaying how fast it can pile up but at low elevations I wouldn't expect it to be efficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And west. this one looks good out here on everything but euro. Newburgh 24" Danbury 12" Newtown 1"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I still can't get over the potential in the Catskills. Gonna be some big totals coming out of that area. I think the ALY forecast for that area is low but honestly, 12-24" gets the word out. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albany NY 400 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 NYZ047-051-058-063-011800- /O.UPG.KALY.WS.A.0005.180302T0500Z-180303T0800Z/ /O.NEW.KALY.WS.W.0007.180302T0500Z-180303T0800Z/ Schoharie-Western Albany-Western Greene-Western Ulster- Including the cities of Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, Prattsville, Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, and Sundown 400 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 18 inches, with localized amounts up to 24 inches, are expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I'll play with the dryslot if that means more residence time as it cools after 21z. Would rather that than have it sink south as it cools like previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 1 minute ago, DomNH said: Even on this weenie-azz NAM run I'd hesitate to get that excited for eastern areas as far as big accumulations. No one is sniffing 10:1 so even if we can bang out an inch of QPF after 21z it's still, some of which is probably wasted at the onset while it's still daylight, I wouldn't expect more than a few inches of slop. I'm not old enough to remember April '97 and wasn't alive for December '92 so maybe I'm underplaying how fast it can pile up but at low elevations I wouldn't expect it to be efficient. If it actually flips to heavy snow, then it won't matter that its still daylight or that temps are marginal. But there's a huge difference between 3/4 or even 1/2 vis snow and 1/4 vis or less at 32-33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: This would be a kick in the teabag if that verified, Being so close, Ouch We all get kicked, Weenies out here still sore from 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: This would be a kick in the teabag if that verified, Being so close, Ouch Sloppy inch for me while the rest of the subforum makes naked snow angels in the dark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Newburgh 24" Danbury 12" Newtown 1"..... lol yea....Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Ahhhh another close run. I'm literally 30 miles off from 10"+ event on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 NAM is basically National Grid's nightmare around here after 21z. Paste+ with 50kt winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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