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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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The blended last 24 to 36 hours worth of guidance et al, really hasn't changed for me. 

This is a dramatic ..albeit fairly classic Nor'easter in form.  However extreme its sensible impacts, notwithstanding.  

Ptype:  During the first 1/2 to perhaps 2/3rds of the event, I suspect it rains, heavily much of the time. My experience with these types of initially marginal evolutions (1992 and your 1997's ..which have been pretty routine analogs to whatever degree throughout this run up) is that in the nearer hours post closure of the mid level centers (at their standard sigma intervals) the rain snow line collapses SE. Most probably that is the UVM spike that occurs when those physical processes take place, that tips the column in favor of cold, BUT, that gets a bit more focused along the transition for these sorts of scenarios.  The difference here is that we are (marginal + 1); in other words, a tick above marginal. But that is still quite close and dynamic systems doing these closures will tend to come along with "unintended consequences," moreover, those that are usually not well foreseen.  If we were say even 2.5 C above critical at those respective thickness intervals, I'd be happy to buy a canoe and rejoice in the fact that we rarely lose power over mere 40 mph wind gust and heavy rain in the interior.  Which frankly... no one asked but I'm okay with that anyway...  However, if marginal +1 is overcome and it flips, I wanna appreciate for a moment that the sky scape in the period would be really fascinating to see, with typical undulatory motion? That sort of vague impression of nebular roiling by over chilly wind gust ... that's snow off the deck not making it down initially.  Then cat-paws start being actual parachutes and your in.. 

As far as impact, it will come down to three scenarios:  one, translucent slush ... mainly non-consequential;  two, a huge deposition of glop that probably doesn't really even cling to the trees and power lines, or even streets too well, because it's just too rich with liquid water; three, ...really bring the hammer through any warm layers and we end up choking in perfection for how to create monster QPF in a snowing column.  

Obviously, any one of these three scenarios has different sensible impact.  For #one, probably enters a significant fresh water flood threat where that sets up.. The middle range option is also got that ... but, that flood concern therein flips over to a grid concerns with power outages if this biases colder ..  I am not sure how confident one can really be in any one of these three scenarios, hence ...'marginality.'

Wind:  This is probably being under sold a little?  I haven't heard a lot of discourse ... it seems the focus has been in order of public interest: snow, CF ... somewhere out here, wind. But, given the deep CCB jet that's depicted,  combining height falls lends to a bit of instability and perhaps momentum transerfering. This also enter a grid concern somewhat, certainly as we look at eastern zones.  I see that BOX has wind notifications flying - certainly agreed.

Multi-facets event ... coastal flood concerns are high and have been getting better coverage, which I am glad. Because for the moment anyway, this is the lead head-line offence that this beast appears poised to unleash.  Others have done fine to describe the multi-cycle, amplifying effects due to duration, and I don't think this can be overstated.  

 

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

@ORH_wxman

Any relationship between this storm and Feb 8 2013? (2m temps aside...)

I wonder if a last minute jump northeast is possible with this similar to what happened then...

Not really...maybe some mild similarities in that it had a vort out ahead of the main energy diving in...but the difference is this one does the full capture/phase whereas Feb 2013 didn't achieve that until northeast of us when ti was SW of Nova Scotia.

 

You can loop it here:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us0208.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us0209.php

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Honestly, if you plot the 700 mb heights, the Euro is farther north and deeper than the GFS (which has the QPF farther north). 

That still argues for a blend of the two to me. 

The Euro does sink south faster than both American models though, by 00z.

I think that's the big thing. It begins to really get pulled south. I wonder if part of it is because of that modeled meso low. Almost slings back west and causes a Fuji dance and whips it south.

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It still does that warm tongue at 850, but a bit more nrly drain 950 and lower it seems.

Yeah we're prob not avoiding it...but it's still colder than 06z at least...and the better ULL could make for a better final 12 hours.

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That earlier pic reminds me of a few years ago where down at the house in Schenectady we got maybe 4 inches of slush and a lot of rain, 1000 feet up in western Schenectady county they got whacked.  I remember one tree stump with a mushroom cap on it about five times wider than the tree it came so fast and big flakes up there.  They had to get 2 1/2 feet easy.  It was edging on spring time, riding my bike up there was a hoot between 8 foot banks, in the state forest people are cross county skiing and I'm riding my bicycle along next to them on the road. 

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