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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I call bull$hit.

I guess hard to dismiss totally... the faster slink southeast scenario was always possible... but I'm not worried. How guidance handles these bouncing lows interacting with the ULL and all the various vortmaxes is gonna fluctuate in the next 24 hours. UK and CMC did tick southeast too. NAM was a huge hit. And I think we have buffer and good shot at last minute north corrections with a 960s low. 

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This was thread the needle set up

Very few runs showed much snow for SNE, and when they did they couldn't duplicate it next run

Still potential and perhaps the euro latched on to Wrong low? 

Trends at 0z , undeniably progressive. Disgustingly so.

I was growing confident i could bump up my conservative numbers but seems like we need a 4'th and 25 conversion to thread this needle now.

Or as PF would say.....we had a  7 run lead going into 0z data (8'th inning of game to "protect warning snows for Orh hills" and after retiring first batter with three heaters that glasses wearing joe dude that throws 103mph gave up a infield single, sandoval booted one a infield hit and now a granny and we brought Kimbrell in and he's down 3-0 (in count). Thats where we sit. 7-4

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2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I guess hard to dismiss totally... the faster slink southeast scenario was always possible... How guidance handles these bouncing lows interacting with the ULL and all the various vortmaxes is gonna fluctuate in the next 24 hours. UK and CMC did tick southeast too. NAM was a huge hit. And I think we have buffer and good shot at last minute north corrections with a 960s low. 

Sure, maybe it sinks and isn't April 1997, but that solution?

Nope. 

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12 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This was thread the needle set up

Very few runs showed much snow for SNE, and when they did they couldn't duplicate it next run

Still potential and perhaps the euro latched on to Wrong low? 

Trends at 0z , undeniably progressive. Disgustingly so.

I was growing confident i could bump up my conservative numbers but seems like we need a 4'th and 25 conversion to thread this needle now.

Or as PF would say.....we had a  7 run lead going into 0z data (8'th inning of game to "protect warning snows for Orh hills" and after retiring first batter with three heaters that glasses wearing joe dude that throws 103mph gave up a infield single, sandoval booted one a infield hit and now a granny and we brought Kimbrell in and he's down 3-0 (in count). Thats where we sit. 7-4

4th and 16, pass to Amendola, first down. I like our chances.

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Agree about not worrying at the moment, for several reasons (1) synoptically guidance is dealing with multiple low centers during the capture, and the timing and which centers dominate will fluctuate in the next 24 hours, (2) north corrections with such intense systems seem more frequent than not. There are also other factors we can verify tomorrow including position of the streams in the Plains and Scooter s*** streak. 

Lots of guidance to digest yet tomorrow. Will chose a good night to call it early.

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21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol maybe that’s why BOX has no snow forecast...would be something if they end up being right all along...???? 

They would be dead wrong if that euro verified. It would drop several inches.

What do you consider 'right'? Because they've pretty much punted until they get a better idea like the other mets.

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The progressive southward sink is definitely a real theme of last night. We're gonna wanna see that relax a little at 12z. 

The one positive trend was the colder antecedent airmass, 06z GFS was even colder on that front so we will see if we can trend that too some more. 

If we don't on either front then we're prob looking at mostly nuisance snows. Maybe advisory. 

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Lol it’s amazing how many times this has changed and continues to do so..historic-nothing, historic-nothing, Epic-pedestrian, long duration-progressive.  Rug gets pulled out with every other run.  Sure sign it’s a flop snow wise.  What a cluster f**k.  

Ill take my heavy rain and high wind watch and be done...maybe it’ll be like a mini cane, one can hope. But Winds always underperform here so not expecting the 40-60mph gusts here in any way....Shoreline sure.

Enjoy the snow in NY state and the Berks. 

 

 

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