March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years

[CT Rain]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Really weird how thin the warm nose is on the NAM...for a while, it has areas in the interior of like +2C at 850 but below 0C at 900mb and 800mb.

I actually like that look (not that it's going to verify) but I really do like how the boundary layer is nice and chilly. We can work with a +1c warm nose. And hell, it's like +9C at the surface like the GFS lol

[HoarfrostHubb]

Slopfest?

[ineedsnow]

Nam gets even here good holy****

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Really weird how thin the warm nose is on the NAM...for a while, it has areas in the interior of like +2C at 850 but below 0C at 900mb and 800mb.

My sounding at 45hr...lol

Date: 45 hour NAM valid 21Z FRI  2 MAR 18
Station: 43.43,-71.62
Latitude:   43.43
Longitude: -71.62
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1  950   401  -0.2  -1.3  92  1.1  -0.7  23  34 277.0 277.6 275.1 287.0  3.65
  2  900   832  -0.7  -1.1  97  0.5  -0.9  41  60 280.8 281.5 277.5 291.7  3.91
  3  850  1292   2.2   1.3  93  1.0   1.8  66  68 288.5 289.3 282.4 302.6  4.93
  4  800  1778  -1.4  -1.9  96  0.5  -1.6  59  62 289.7 290.4 282.1 301.7  4.17
  5  750  2290  -4.6  -5.5  94  0.9  -5.0  61  62 291.5 292.1 282.0 301.4  3.37
  6  700  2830  -7.5  -8.6  92  1.0  -7.9  69  64 294.1 294.6 282.4 302.7  2.85
  7  650  3403 -10.8 -12.1  90  1.3 -11.2  77  62 296.7 297.2 283.0 303.9  2.33
  8  600  4016 -13.1 -14.5  90  1.3 -13.6  90  61 300.9 301.3 284.3 307.4  2.07
  9  550  4677 -14.9 -16.2  90  1.2 -15.3 102  57 306.4 306.7 286.2 312.6  1.97
 10  500  5393 -18.4 -19.9  88  1.5 -18.8 100  45 310.6 310.8 287.3 315.7  1.57
 11  450  6173 -23.2 -25.1  85  1.9 -23.6  86  42 314.1 314.3 288.1 317.8  1.11
 12  400  7022 -30.1 -33.0  76  2.8 -30.5  73  41 315.9 316.0 288.1 318.0  0.60
 13  350  7956 -38.1 -41.5  70  3.4 -38.4  77  42 317.4 317.4 288.2 318.4  0.29
 14  300  8999 -46.8 -50.2  68  3.4 -47.0  98  46 319.3 319.4 288.7 319.8  0.13

[HoarfrostHubb]

Jeez...24” here by 48 on The Tidbits

[weathafella]

We fire hose.

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Really weird how thin the warm nose is on the NAM...for a while, it has areas in the interior of like +2C at 850 but below 0C at 900mb and 800mb.

As the NAM turns... Just another day in the life of the world's most interesting model

[ineedsnow]

Still snowing hard at 51

[dryslot]

That low just shoots SE once it got up to the eastern tip of LI.

[dendrite]

Snow

Date: 45 hour NAM valid 21Z FRI  2 MAR 18
Station: KORH
Latitude:   42.27
Longitude: -71.88
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1  950   327  -0.0  -0.4  98  0.3  -0.2  17  39 277.2 277.8 275.6 287.9  3.92
  2  900   759  -0.7  -1.0  97  0.4  -0.8  31  69 280.8 281.5 277.6 291.8  3.93
  3  850  1218   0.4   0.1  98  0.3   0.3  50  83 286.6 287.4 281.1 299.5  4.53
  4  800  1704  -0.2  -0.5  98  0.3  -0.3  62  84 291.0 291.8 283.1 304.4  4.63
  5  750  2220  -1.4  -1.8  97  0.4  -1.6  71  83 295.1 295.9 284.7 308.2  4.47
  6  700  2767  -4.0  -4.6  95  0.6  -4.3  76  78 298.1 298.8 285.2 309.7  3.88
  7  650  3349  -6.8  -7.7  93  0.9  -7.2  82  72 301.3 301.9 285.8 311.4  3.29
  8  600  3970 -10.2 -11.4  90  1.3 -10.6  87  57 304.4 304.9 286.3 312.7  2.66
  9  550  4635 -14.3 -16.0  87  1.7 -14.8  83  39 307.1 307.5 286.6 313.5  2.00
 10  500  5351 -18.9 -20.9  84  2.1 -19.4  69  32 310.1 310.3 287.0 314.8  1.44
 11  450  6128 -23.9 -26.4  80  2.5 -24.4  58  38 313.1 313.3 287.6 316.5  0.98
 12  400  6978 -29.2 -32.1  76  2.9 -29.6  70  52 317.0 317.2 288.5 319.3  0.65
 13  350  7916 -37.0 -40.4  71  3.3 -37.3  77  65 318.8 318.9 288.7 320.0  0.32
 14  300  8961 -46.2 -50.3  63  4.1 -46.4  88  60 320.2 320.3 289.0 320.7  0.13
 15  250 10150 -52.0                      111  37 328.8                        
 16  200 11602 -49.0                      196   5 355.2                        
 17  150 13497 -48.8                      274  21 385.9                        
 18  100 16130 -53.4                      278  22 424.6                        

[TalcottWx]

0z Sat BOS starts getting crushed. 

Like I said, even on the warmest model runs.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I actually like that look (not that it's going to verify) but I really do like how the boundary layer is nice and chilly. We can work with a +1c warm nose. And hell, it's like +9C at the surface like the GFS lol

I agree...it's kind of a "Red flag"...I do like how the antecedent airmass is cooling each run it seems. Pretty soon, we might be able to wipe oiut most of that warm layer by the time we get another 2 or 3 runs in.

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

45hr has most of VT above 0C at 850.

As Ryan stated it looks like the 850 level is the warmest.  

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

My sounding at 45hr...lol

Date: 45 hour NAM valid 21Z FRI  2 MAR 18
Station: 43.43,-71.62
Latitude:   43.43
Longitude: -71.62
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  1  950   401  -0.2  -1.3  92  1.1  -0.7  23  34 277.0 277.6 275.1 287.0  3.65
  2  900   832  -0.7  -1.1  97  0.5  -0.9  41  60 280.8 281.5 277.5 291.7  3.91
  3  850  1292   2.2   1.3  93  1.0   1.8  66  68 288.5 289.3 282.4 302.6  4.93
  4  800  1778  -1.4  -1.9  96  0.5  -1.6  59  62 289.7 290.4 282.1 301.7  4.17
  5  750  2290  -4.6  -5.5  94  0.9  -5.0  61  62 291.5 292.1 282.0 301.4  3.37
  6  700  2830  -7.5  -8.6  92  1.0  -7.9  69  64 294.1 294.6 282.4 302.7  2.85
  7  650  3403 -10.8 -12.1  90  1.3 -11.2  77  62 296.7 297.2 283.0 303.9  2.33
  8  600  4016 -13.1 -14.5  90  1.3 -13.6  90  61 300.9 301.3 284.3 307.4  2.07
  9  550  4677 -14.9 -16.2  90  1.2 -15.3 102  57 306.4 306.7 286.2 312.6  1.97
 10  500  5393 -18.4 -19.9  88  1.5 -18.8 100  45 310.6 310.8 287.3 315.7  1.57
 11  450  6173 -23.2 -25.1  85  1.9 -23.6  86  42 314.1 314.3 288.1 317.8  1.11
 12  400  7022 -30.1 -33.0  76  2.8 -30.5  73  41 315.9 316.0 288.1 318.0  0.60
 13  350  7956 -38.1 -41.5  70  3.4 -38.4  77  42 317.4 317.4 288.2 318.4  0.29
 14  300  8999 -46.8 -50.2  68  3.4 -47.0  98  46 319.3 319.4 288.7 319.8  0.13

Not bad until you get to H85.......lol

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, sbos_wx said:

0z Sat BOS starts getting crushed. 

Like I said, even on the warmest model runs.

For what, 3hrs? I want this to stop shooting se

[weathafella]

BOS and surrounding area 4inches+ qpf and still wailing!

[SnowHole413]

I’m going to savoy on Saturday, Berks are due for one like this!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The snow maps dont do us justice, thats a big blow west of river.

10-15" for many of us outliers.  Albany slam-o-rama.  Where is SnowGeek? 

[ORH_wxman]

Holy smokes, that is an absolute walloping between 00z and 6z

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree...it's kind of a "Red flag"...I do like how the antecedent airmass is cooling each run it seems. Pretty soon, we might be able to wipe oiut most of that warm layer by the time we get another 2 or 3 runs in.

The rip and readers are going to go down in flames. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

As Ryan stated it looks like the 850 level is the warmest.  

How does that not really hurt snow amounts?   Won’t flakes melt as they go though it and not have time to reform?

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's not bad, it's just slower. Looks like snow starts near 00z and it pounds.

Fwiw Harv was thinking bottom 1/2 is snow.  

Tend to agree obviously tailored from northwest to southeast accordingly but… this is probably gonna die a slow death maybe light wind whipped snow trying to go to light rain here Saturday night and Sunday morning even. Was even a chance of a pulse or like a spoke could flash West later Sunday.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I actually like that look (not that it's going to verify) but I really do like how the boundary layer is nice and chilly. We can work with a +1c warm nose. And hell, it's like +9C at the surface like the GFS lol

I agree.  It's not that bad.  I see Will agrees.  

[CoastalWx]

What a man paste bomb.

[dryslot]

5"+ qpf on the coast in eastern ma.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

How does that not really hurt snow amounts?   Won’t flakes melt as they go though it and not have time to reform?

You overcome it with insane lift. A paper thin warm layer like that in this system is probably faux or shortlived.

[WintersComing]

Good Lord


.

[ineedsnow]

Starting to feel this one even in the valley now!! Nam gives me around a foot... Not all in until the rest of the models come out though

[Blizz]

[CoastalWx]

Why Kuchera?