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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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SW shortwave lags, later northern stream interaction, more time for blocking to retrograde, and system exits the coast further south on 0z Gfs

Timing of the shortwave ejecting / interaction with northern stream is consistently one of the more critical variables

Treating this run like just another ensemble member this far out, and I do think this is still a realistic but less likely outcome

 

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Gefs has a beautiful track but warm for the coast

 

Have to see the members 

 

I had a feeling it was going to come in further south. I wouldn't be shocked to see it come even further south. The models always have a hard time with  blocking. I have and still do believe that the models will also adjust colder as time goes on. I see this storm as a rain to snow event for our area.

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25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 There is so much knee-jerking  to each model run in this thread right now it’s crazy. 

Gonna happen when people discuss the model runs like we do on here and its still 4 days out.

The difference in the EPS from 12z to 00z was pretty crazy.  The mean now goes E to almost ESE right off the Delmarva.  The QPF is a fraction of what the mean was at that monster 12z run, lol.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Gonna happen when people discuss the model runs like we do on here and its still 4 days out.

The difference in the EPS from 12z to 00z was pretty crazy.  The mean now goes E to almost ESE right off the Delmarva.  The QPF is a fraction of what the mean was at that monster 12z run, lol.

Sit back and enjoy the weenie-coaster.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Very disturbing shunt on the EPS. Hopefully just typical noise. We'll see if it can come back this afternoon, or if it's time to move onto other things

Maybe it will trend slightly more north but the  block is going to limit its northern movement.

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Gonna happen when people discuss the model runs like we do on here and its still 4 days out.

The difference in the EPS from 12z to 00z was pretty crazy.  The mean now goes E to almost ESE right off the Delmarva.  The QPF is a fraction of what the mean was at that monster 12z run, lol.

Yeah...WPC not enthusiastic for anywhere in NNE.  However when there have been repeated runs with big qpf, that often returns or trends back as we get closer.  Fingers crossed.  But I'm struck by the warmth last week and this week...not sure where we head after that but the high latitude blocking hasn't brought cold.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's the problem with being shown jackpot high-end event for a few model runs at Day 5-6. 

If anyone thought the models were just going to spit that solution out for 5 days straight, they are fooling themselves.

One piece of s/w energy is saying hello to Anchorage today and the other kissing the coast of the PAC NW. As usual, guidance will have no clue until these features (esp the energy in AK) are better sampled.

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The cips analogs are pretty fun. 4/1/97, 3/5/01, 3/7/13 are all in there, lol. 

Anyways, I wouldn't worry so much about the oscillations. We saw an even further south run in the previous 00z run before it wildly swung back north at 12z. The synoptic setup is largely the same. Down here, we prob want it a little south anyway...beware the surge north late in the game. 

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