TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:31 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: Clown maps be damned, Eastern folks see some solid snow accum with that look on the REGM. Looks to be about 0.5 to 0.7+ melted equiv in the form of snow. Expand Oh well what do you know.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:36 PM, wxsniss said: Here you go Ray... at same timepoint 12z had nada Expand Thank you. Looks like inside 495 is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:33 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is there less up here? Expand No, looks pretty uniform. Like I said just after 21z is when it looks like the flip occurs. Here is the 12hr precip total from that time. And it's still falling after this, albeit more lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Upper levels on GFS seem a tad cooler a bit sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:38 PM, Baroclinic Zone said: No, looks pretty uniform. Like I said just after 21z is when it looks like the flip occurs. Here is the 12hr precip total from that time. And it's still falling after this, albeit more lightly. Expand Thanks a lot, Bob. Has the PSM cut off I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 A few more ticks higher with the ridge in western canada again. every little bit helps, and I always like to see heights go up out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 GFS went a bit SE it seems, but colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Looks like we may go 4-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I may be completely off but it seems that the globals aren't seeing and picking up on the upper levels cooling as much as maybe the NAM is?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 going with 6-8" for my area.. if we can flip a little before 21z and keep going past 6z-8z with the small pieces of energy we might do even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I’m expecting 0.0, but would happily take a few inches of mashed potatoes following the storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:40 PM, Bostonseminole said: going with 6-8" for my area.. if we can flip a little before 21z and keep going past 6z-8z with the small pieces of energy we might do even better Expand Still not sure what exactly I'll do, but coming into focus a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 It also has the band too that the other models had, but not as robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:42 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Still not sure what exactly I'll do, but coming into focus a bit more. Expand I’d think 3-6” there. Glop too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:42 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Still not sure what exactly I'll do, but coming into focus a bit more. Expand Man, it's really close to allot more.. i hope it trends a little cooler, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:44 PM, Bostonseminole said: Man, it's really close to allot more.. i hope it trends a little cooler, Expand This reminds me of the marginal call to end last season that I blew...April 1. Mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The GFS is rather progressive. It did scoot out a bit quicker than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:45 PM, CoastalWx said: The GFS is rather progressive. It did scoot out a bit quicker than 12z. Expand as Ray said, seems every positive bring on a negative.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:47 PM, Bostonseminole said: as Ray said, seems every positive bring on a negative.. Expand There is no margin for error, so it certainly seems that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Cop out range but I'd go 2-6'' final for eastern areas. Looks like .75''ish QPF as snow is the best case and ratios will sub 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 850's almost wire to wire outside 495 on 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:45 PM, CoastalWx said: The GFS is rather progressive. It did scoot out a bit quicker than 12z. Expand I love how we have a bomb taking a perfect track and being captured, yet it manages to remain progressive and stacks the vorticity on the se side of the ULL...while all the cold is on the other side of the globe. Cosmic dildo, anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:45 PM, CoastalWx said: The GFS is rather progressive. It did scoot out a bit quicker than 12z. Expand Of course....there is always a counter punch....sign of a flawed synoptic playing field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I think the issue on some of the models for areas north of me is that just as heights crash the best dynamics shift south and this is why you are seeing higher totals in SE areas. Whether this is true or not remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The GFS is still a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Well given the 18z stuff, I wouldn't really hop on one tick SE. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 9:54 PM, CT Rain said: The GFS is still a torch Expand 1000 shades of suck...authored by the last 36 hour's worth of solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 What could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Yeah GFS sucked. I want to say it's showing the "usual southeast progressive bias", but I know that's a selectively applied flag. Best 12z/18z models for eastern SNE: 12k/3k NAM, followed by 18z RGEM. Specifically based on those, I'm still not sure if ceiling for Boston is 3-4" or 6-8"? Maybe even higher if flip timing is underestimated. We know where the floor is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Should be a good storm in the Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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