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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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If that stall happens a bit more NE, it's pretty obvious the snow scenario gets more interesting east of ORH too. Low level winds are really backed to NNE in the aftn. That is normally good for keeping it fairly cold with lower dews advecting in. Just need to eradicate the 850 warmth.

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  On 3/1/2018 at 2:37 PM, powderfreak said:

I still can't get over the potential in the Catskills.  Gonna be some big totals coming out of that area.

I think the ALY forecast for that area is low but honestly, 12-24" gets the word out.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Albany NY
400 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

NYZ047-051-058-063-011800-
/O.UPG.KALY.WS.A.0005.180302T0500Z-180303T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KALY.WS.W.0007.180302T0500Z-180303T0800Z/
Schoharie-Western Albany-Western Greene-Western Ulster-
Including the cities of Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa,
Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson,
Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, Hunter,
Tannersville, Windham, Prattsville, Ellenville, Woodstock,
West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, and Sundown
400 AM EST Thu Mar 1 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to
  18 inches, with localized amounts up to 24 inches, are
  expected.
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Im so close to booking a hotel there 

Theres One or two i found at 1800'

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  On 3/1/2018 at 1:44 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Not really...maybe some mild similarities in that it had a vort out ahead of the main energy diving in...but the difference is this one does the full capture/phase whereas Feb 2013 didn't achieve that until northeast of us when ti was SW of Nova Scotia.

 

You can loop it here:

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us0208.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2013/us0209.php

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Thanks Will.

I dunno, to me the H5 similarities seem remarkable. And as you said with the southern stream Vort running out ahead of the H5 trough, I think we could see something similar with a last minute trend northeast...

The 12z NAM continued this trend, particularly at H5, with the later close off and building downstream UL heights.

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  On 3/1/2018 at 2:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

For 18"?

Who cares....we've seen that so many times..

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I think it'll be a bust if they only see 18".

Those places saw 3 feet in 1992 and 1997.  

They get crushed on east flow like this and it's been very consistent in the models there.

My guess is some spots in there are 24-36".

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