dryslot Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:38 AM, dendrite said: You overcome it with insane lift. A paper thin warm layer like that in this system is probably faux or shortlived. Expand +1c can be overcome quite easily with those rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:33 AM, dryslot said: That low just shoots SE once it got up to the eastern tip of LI. Expand Toss that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:38 AM, dendrite said: You overcome it with insane lift. A paper thin warm layer like that in this system is probably faux or shortlived. Expand Yeah even a thin layer of 1-2C is really suspect on some of these runs when you have the type of lift and precip rates being advertised...there's almost no way the model would be able to keep up with latent cooling from melting. Gonna have to see if that starts to get washed out a bit as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 One more bump north please. You can see what the dynamic cooling is doing in SNE while up here the chickens are thinking "meh". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:38 AM, WintersComing said: Good Lord . Expand Probably won't go down quite like that but time to get gas for the genny and change the shear pins on the snow blower tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Is latitude going to make any difference in how quickly the changeover occurs or is this more east vs. west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 850 mb +2c would get washed out pretty quickly with those kind of fall rates if that's really true. That's a red flag Man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:35 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: How does that not really hurt snow amounts? Won’t flakes melt as they go though it and not have time to reform? Expand It does to some extent but this thing is a firehose and is gonna go ape**** once it flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Very 1997ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 After 60. 24”+ over my head! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:40 AM, CoastalWx said: Why Kuchera? Expand Yeah im not sure sometimes how the model outputs it... my reasoning behind it is some areas would be less than 10:1 right? I guess at the same time it gets ridiculous with the catskill ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:40 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah even a thin layer of 1-2C is really suspect on some of these runs when you have the type of lift and precip rates being advertised...there's almost no way the model would be able to keep up with latent cooling from melting. Gonna have to see if that starts to get washed out a bit as we get closer. Expand Meteorology not modelogy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Skips the CT valley, but leaves plenty in the Hudson, especially near Newburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 The NAM still drops prob a foot or more here after 3”+ of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Big power problems if that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 This 4-5" that makes it to the coast any idea how much makes it as snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 ORH is actually basically a snow sounding already at 09z friday but then that sneaky warm layer tries to intrude for around 12 hours. There's some bust potential in there if that's overdone....as mentioned before, the antecedent airmass has def gotten colder with the Scooter streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 First Call: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/blizzard-of-2018-take-two-first-call.html Final Call tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 In Scooter streak we trust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 I will make out with Ray if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Even though the Atlantic ridge is decaying, I have a hard time believing this system books it out of here as fast as the NAM is suggesting. Slow 'er down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Damn 12-14" looking at Pivotal 10:1. All in 4.5" melted so around. Hydro issues on already soaked grounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 Here you go for you guys down there as I enjoy my .3" of qpf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:44 AM, Amped said: Skips the CT valley, but leaves plenty in the Hudson, especially near Newburgh.I’m not completely buying that CT valley skip. I get the little bit of lower elevation thing but not to that extent. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:47 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: First Call: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/blizzard-of-2018-take-two-first-call.html Final Call tomorrow night. Expand Good writeup Ray...going balls to wall. Can't say with a lot of evidence that it won't happen...there's certainly some pretty classic players on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 10 in Philly, 12+ in NYC, 3ft in Worcester and chickenmeh up here. Another reason I hate strong -NAOs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:47 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: First Call: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/blizzard-of-2018-take-two-first-call.html Final Call tomorrow night. Expand I like it! Go big or go home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 No hyperbole. That's probably one of the most dangerous damaging model runs I can remember taking all facets and repercussions into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:47 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: First Call:http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/blizzard-of-2018-take-two-first-call.html Final Call tomorrow night.Ya if that verifies I’ll give ya the best reach around you’ve ever had lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 1, 2018 Share Posted March 1, 2018 On 3/1/2018 at 2:47 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: First Call: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/02/blizzard-of-2018-take-two-first-call.html Final Call tomorrow night. Expand Awesome writeup, Ray. Spot on the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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