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March 2-4th ... first -NAO anchored storm perhaps in years


Typhoon Tip

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  On 2/28/2018 at 10:45 PM, powderfreak said:

The Catskills are going to get destroyed.  Feet for those hill towns at 2,000ft there SW of ALB. 

They won't lose any to rain, IMO.  Should start as pretty much snow there in the high terrain of NY.

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Agreed. The same thing happened in March 10. 40”+ above 2k.

what are your thoughts for the southern greens? Im thinking a foot is a good call for Stratton/mt snow

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I wouldn't under-sell the elevational aspect of this event either... I think everyone goes to heavy snow if that firehose develops as modeled BUT there's a big difference between 34F pounding snow and 31F pounding snow. 

Sure they both will accumulate but one is going to be a heck of a lot more efficient.  I could see DIT or 1,000ft elevations doing 1"/hr snowfall at 31-32F while places under 500ft are doing a half inch per hour (on 0.1" liquid in the tipper per hour) at 34F.  That type of difference adds up throughout an event like this with big QPF.

Something where the top of Blue Hill has twice as much as anyone else in E.MA just because of the extra 500ft of elevation and temps there just that extra 1C cooler, aiding in accumulation processes.

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  On 2/28/2018 at 11:14 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You are one of the few on air that understands the nuances of the Valley and how it tightens as you head N.  Greenfield and Northampton an often be different worlds.

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He’s the best in the on air business in SNE. No doubt about it . Right there with Leonard 

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  On 2/28/2018 at 11:09 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Agreed. The same thing happened in March 10. 40”+ above 2k.

what are your thoughts for the southern greens? Im thinking a foot is a good call for Stratton/mt snow

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8-12" were my thoughts for the SVT ski areas of Mt Snow, Stratton, Bromley area.  Tough one as I think they'll snow easier than other areas because of the high elevation there and east flow orographic enhancement will lead to additional cooling from forced ascent.  I still think ratios will be pretty pasty and 8:1 with 1.0-1.4" QPF (snow growth doesn't look that good, TBH) but if they are ripping aggregates it could change.  I could see them going bigger though...if someone put up a 16" spot at 3,000ft that wouldn't be a huge surprise if the best moisture conveyor belt is a bit north of where its progged right now on the consensus (ie an RGEM type solution).

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  On 2/28/2018 at 11:11 PM, DomNH said:

I'm a little surprised even  high end chance map is  <1'' of snow for most inside 495. 

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Well im not buying a warning snow for much of eastern mass, esp Ne mass at the moment. Its Certainly possible thou, there high end products are meh

I believe NW CT could also over perform nicely along w berks

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  On 2/28/2018 at 11:19 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Well im not buying a warning snow for much of eastern mass, esp Ne mass at the moment. Its Certainly possible thou, there high end products are meh

I believe NW CT could also over perform nicely along w berks

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Why especially NE Mass?

I feel like they'd have the best chance at getting the dynamic cooling machine going?  NE flow into that area?

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  On 2/28/2018 at 11:24 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Highest odds for warning in sne look to be nw ct and Berks

With primary trend south, they got a nice ceiling and floor, should that trend not go backwards

 

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Even though Greenfield is relatively low elevation, I like the trends today.   Should be a decent pasting.

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  On 2/28/2018 at 11:04 PM, powderfreak said:

Isn't Tolland where I-84 levels out there for a bit before it heads back NE? 

Not that it matters as Ryan is obviously highlighting the high terrain in NE CT (its clear what he's trying to show viewers), its just funny if you aren't really sure where your town is?

tolland.jpg

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Thank you for being able to read a map. I thought I was alone, even when I highlighted it plain as day.

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  On 2/28/2018 at 11:29 PM, powderfreak said:

Why esp Ne mass?

I feel like they'd have the best chance at getting the dynamic cooling machine going?  NE flow into that area?

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There is less forcing in that area except maybe on CMC Lol

Now im seeing trends that End this earlier as well, and Thats a ugly combo when your banking on accums W this airmass

Now if you want to say forcing will trend stronger then what you say has more merit. 

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  On 2/28/2018 at 11:13 PM, powderfreak said:

I wouldn't under-sell the elevational aspect of this event either... I think everyone goes to heavy snow if that firehose develops as modeled BUT there's a big difference between 34F pounding snow and 31F pounding snow. 

Sure they both will accumulate but one is going to be a heck of a lot more efficient.  I could see DIT or 1,000ft elevations doing 1"/hr snowfall at 31-32F while places under 500ft are doing a half inch per hour (on 0.1" liquid in the tipper per hour) at 34F.  That type of difference adds up throughout an event like this with big QPF.

Something where the top of Blue Hill has twice as much as anyone else in E.MA just because of the extra 500ft of elevation and temps there just that extra 1C cooler, aiding in accumulation processes.

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I tend to agree with this in general, but the bulk of whatever snow falls outside of western SNE should happen after dark which should help mitigate accumulation issues. 

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