Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Saturday is gonna snow well into the daylight hours. Love long duration storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:18 PM, Dpb1983 said: I was pretty happy the “bomb cyclone” turned out to be powder. Nobody wanted to be outside in the sub-Arctic days that followed that beast. Is the media just not buying the snow potential or are they playing catch up at this point? Expand I’m not sure. Models have offered pretty much every possible solution, but seem to be getting a clue finally. My coworkers are all expecting rain...I’m having trouble convincing them otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:19 PM, Ginx snewx said: 35 ft seas now on WW3 Expand That is solely GFS based though, so chip in some Euro and that knocks it down some. But still pushing 30 ft probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:24 PM, DomNH said: Went out for a run, but the lack of updates on the GFS is telling lol. Looks more like a few slushy inches than blue bomb on mobile. Round and round we go. Expand Thermal issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:23 PM, JC-CT said: It has nothing to do with algorithms. It has you at 40F surface temp. Expand -2C 850 with N winds and its showing rain, is my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:25 PM, OceanStWx said: That is solely GFS based though, so chip in some Euro and that knocks it down some. But still pushing 30 ft probably. Expand Understood, I think there is a Euro Wave model, hold on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:24 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Saturday is gonna snow well into the daylight hours. Love long duration storms Expand Definitely, unless you go by the Euro, or the GFS, or... Looks like early morning shut off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:26 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: -2C 850 with N winds and its showing rain, is my point. Expand Looks closer to 0C to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:26 PM, Ginx snewx said: Understood, I think there is a Euro Wave model, hold on Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:28 PM, JC-CT said: Looks closer to 0C to me Expand That looks like the 12z run at 48 hours...the map I posted earlier was 18z at 48 hours...it was def pretty cold aloft but still raining at that timestamp. That's a period that will end up being very crucial...model may underestimate the cooling effect of latent melting in extremely heavy precip....we'll have to see if it continues to be modeled the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Euro keeps 20 ft plus waves near Ema until Tuesday 18Z with NE winds, brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:28 PM, JC-CT said: Looks closer to 0C to me Expand Next frame brah on 18z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:26 PM, Ginx snewx said: Understood, I think there is a Euro Wave model, hold on Expand Yep. Coarse AF, but 25-30 foot tickling Cape Cod Bay, MA, USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:31 PM, ORH_wxman said: That looks like the 12z run at 48 hours...he map I posted earlier was 18z at 48 hours...it was def pretty cold aloft but still raining at that timestamp. That's a period that will end up being very crucial...model may underestimate the cooling effect of latent melting in extremely heavy precip....we'll have to see if it continues to be modeled the same way. Expand What a rookie mistake. Sorry RnYAWAYICEIE et al. This looks ok... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:32 PM, OceanStWx said: Yep. Coarse AF, but 25-30 foot tickling Cape Cod Bay, MA, USA. Expand Yeah but how much snow? The next chapter depends on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Jesus the RGEM bring a meso low right into EMA near hr 54. Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:26 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Thermal issues... Expand Looks more like only like 5 hours of precip after mid levels crash issues....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:34 PM, CoastalWx said: Jesus the RGEM bring a meso low right into EMA near hr 54. Holy crap. Expand yeah its wild .. gets slingshotted back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:34 PM, CoastalWx said: Jesus the RGEM bring a meso low right into EMA near hr 54. Holy crap. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:36 PM, ma blizzard said: yeah its wild .. gets slingshotted back Expand That is H force to EMA. Verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 We could have had a clean phased monster but a clusterfk can be just as fun to predict. Definitely some meso stuff going on, lots and lots of energy just like my 6 year old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Semper911 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Can someone help me understand this? What does the NWS know that we don't know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:26 PM, JC-CT said: Definitely, unless you go by the Euro, or the GFS, or... Looks like early morning shut off. Expand Step away from models. Look at past crushers like this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:39 PM, Semper911 said: Can someone help me understand this? What does the NWS know that we don't know? Expand That it doesn't snow at 40F surface temps. This is wild though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:40 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Step away from models. Look at past crushers like this one Expand GW sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:41 PM, JC-CT said: That it doesn't snow at 40F surface temps. This is wild though. Expand Why are you so hung up on too warm modeled surface temps from bad thermal models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Intresting http://www.sailflow.com/map#38.84,-77.12,6,2,!42.1145:-69.6094 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:42 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Why are you so hung up on too warm modeled surface temps from bad thermal models? Expand Because, they aren't 7 degrees too warm. This isn't a CAD situation. The airmass sucks. Congrats you, under 800' we rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:38 PM, CoastalWx said: That is H force to EMA. Verbatim. Expand yeah its crazy .. 90+ kt winds at 850. yikes also looks like a much slower solution compared to the other 18z guidance / euro. def in no rush to exit based off the last panel i see (54h) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 10:38 PM, CoastalWx said: That is H force to EMA. Verbatim. Expand Yeah 18z RGEM shows potential if the multiple low centers consolidate on the one closest to benchmark... prolonged and intense into eastern SNE Those thermal profiles though, wth... I can picture us all glued to the windows Friday afternoon (hopefully earlier) watching for signs of mix... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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