TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Not going to BS. Harvey not bullish concerns me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:28 AM, 8611Blizz said: Harvey does seem to think that low tracks pretty tight to the coast. Not impressed with the snowfall rates/amounts even in central mass. Expand Sounds like he’s using a blend of the 00z runs; more weighted to the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:27 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: We'll see....I'm not blinking, lets see if he does hahaha Expand I am with ya bro. I laid it out, sink or swim. Happy medium between Euro and GFS is what I went with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:31 AM, sbos_wx said: Not going to BS. Harvey not bullish concerns me. Expand I don't like it, but he's human. On 2/28/2018 at 4:31 AM, sbos_wx said: Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Canadian tries to wrap the cold in for a decent thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:31 AM, sbos_wx said: Not going to BS. Harvey not bullish concerns me. Expand Is there a reason to be bullish right now though. No model currently is showing major snowfall anywhere in SNE. Still a few days away.. but for now.. prob the safe call. The tv aspect also plays a role. Tough to go on air and sell a major snowstorm when nothing currently supports that, even if they think it may happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:31 AM, sbos_wx said: Not going to BS. Harvey not bullish concerns me. Expand I'm almost 50 and I've been saying the same thing for 2/3 of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:33 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Is there a reason to be bullish right now though. No model currently is showing major snowfall anywhere in SNE. Still a few days away.. but for now.. prob the safe call Expand Harvey is a savant. He doesn't necessarily need the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:33 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Is there a reason to be bullish right now though. No model currently is showing major snowfall anywhere in SNE. Still a few days away.. but for now.. prob the safe call Expand I thought he could have done a better job conveying uncertainty.....its not a slam-dunk rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Nobody on air is bullish at this point on a snow storm. With these models and dependence on dynamic cooling No surprise at this lead He can tweak that should this land in sweet spot and gain some consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:31 AM, sbos_wx said: Not going to BS. Harvey not bullish concerns me. Expand Good thing it's Tuesday for a Friday storm, he has noon 6 and 11 to reassess. Harvey might be God but he can change his tune as he should do if things evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:33 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Is there a reason to be bullish right now though. No model currently is showing major snowfall anywhere in SNE. Still a few days away.. but for now.. prob the safe call Expand lol, Its got precip in CT in 45 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Will, you staying for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Nobody on TV was bullish in Mar 2013 either...at the last minute with about 36 hours to go, Harv came in and upped amounts to at least warning criteria to lead the pack (while others went down in flames). This one is still a good solid 2 runs away from reaching the same timeframe as '13....granted, I think this one has more work to do than '13 did. That one had a stale airmass too but a little better than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:36 AM, dryslot said: lol, Its got precip in CT in 45 hrs Expand Few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:34 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I thought he could have done a better job conveying uncertainty.....its not a slam-dunk rainer. Expand Yeah, but tonight is the cushion forecast where you can make up ground either way tomorrow depending on the overnight runs and the public is still given ample warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:36 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Will, you staying for the Euro? Expand I am going to let the drinks flow and stay up for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:37 AM, ORH_wxman said: Nobody was bullish in Mar 2013 either...at the last minute with about 36 hours to go, Harv came in and upped amounts to at least warning criteria to lead the pack (while others went down in flames). This one is still a good solid 2 runs away from reaching the same timeframe as '13....granted, I think this one has more work to do than '13 did. That one had a stale airmass too but a little better than this one. Expand They only remember the last forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:36 AM, dryslot said: lol, Its got precip in CT in 45 hrs Expand Yeah... a couple days... and even then.. there will be rain to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:36 AM, dryslot said: lol, Its got precip in CT in 45 hrs Expand I actually believe taunton made a solid post w Ray's Caveat Let euro go on board For 2 straight runs and he'll be sInging Deck the halls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Honestly if the Euro comes back to NAM land and goes absolutely bonkers that too will concern me. Too many shifts. Somebody needs to tell the models it's 2018. (steps off his weenie soapbox) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:37 AM, ORH_wxman said: Nobody on TV was bullish in Mar 2013 either...at the last minute with about 36 hours to go, Harv came in and upped amounts to at least warning criteria to lead the pack (while others went down in flames). This one is still a good solid 2 runs away from reaching the same timeframe as '13....granted, I think this one has more work to do than '13 did. That one had a stale airmass too but a little better than this one. Expand How bad were TV forecasts up there? 3-6"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:39 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah... a couple days... and even then.. there will be rain to start. Expand Still an eternity, Don't know why anyone would think this would be solved at a longer lead, Everything this winter has been chaotic right up to the last 24 hrs and the Northern stream has been fairly dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:40 AM, H2Otown_WX said: How bad were TV forecasts up there? 3-6"? Expand They were horrendous. most has very little snow here and we ended up with about 2 feet. Ill never forget Pete B literally updating his map real time and it was still wrong. That was something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:38 AM, Ginx snewx said: They only remember the last forecast Expand The funny part about that one is I remember I had an odd alliance with messenger (who was often against me pushing things SE, lol)...we were the two most bullish by far in that one on here. Weenies kept leaping off the bridge every run on that threat because of QPF queening and then believing the GFS low level temps showing rain despite like -3 to -4 at 900mb...or some other model oddity that was preventing them showing a ton of snow. We'll see how this one trends...the biggest problem with this one is not knowing how it tracks in the early stages....they all keep ending up near the BM eventually, but how it gets there is the most important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:42 AM, dryslot said: Still an eternity, Don't know why anyone would think this would be solved at a longer lead, Everything this winter has be chaoyic right up to the last 24 hrs and the Northern stream has bee fairly dominant. Expand Correct me if I'm wrong, but the 4 SD NAO block is an added twist....this season has been progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Ukie looks like an absolute furnace to me early on...the 72h panel looks nice over the benchmark, but it's over ginxy's fanny at 60 hours...raining to powderfreak, lol. Basically a NAM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 Either way... rain or snow.. the longevity of the system is impressive. Still rain and snow showers associated with the system in SE Mass at 06z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:44 AM, ORH_wxman said: Ukie looks like an absolute furnace to me early on...the 72h panel looks nice over the benchmark, but it's over ginxy's fanny at 60 hours...raining to powderfreak, lol. Basically a NAM solution. Expand Like you said, the transition to the benchmark is critical. Does it cut underneath like the 18z NAM or is it getting there from upstate New York.. big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2/28/2018 at 4:44 AM, ORH_wxman said: Ukie looks like an absolute furnace to me early on...the 72h panel looks nice over the benchmark, but it's over ginxy's fanny at 60 hours...raining to powderfreak, lol. Basically a NAM solution. Expand Ugh...Euro will probably look similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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