ice1972 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 On 2/26/2018 at 3:37 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: NE MA is the favored low elevation location imo. Expand You can’t possibly know that at 5 days out bro....I’ll buy ya a drink for trying though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 SW shortwave lags, later northern stream interaction, more time for blocking to retrograde, and system exits the coast further south on 0z Gfs Timing of the shortwave ejecting / interaction with northern stream is consistently one of the more critical variables Treating this run like just another ensemble member this far out, and I do think this is still a realistic but less likely outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 On 2/26/2018 at 4:43 AM, ice1972 said: You can’t possibly know that at 5 days out bro....I’ll buy ya a drink for trying though... Expand No thanks. Watch and remember I said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Uncle looks good, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 On 2/26/2018 at 4:43 AM, ice1972 said: You can’t possibly know that at 5 days out bro....I’ll buy ya a drink for trying though... Expand SNH is prolly preferrable But Best dynamics may shunt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 On 2/26/2018 at 4:56 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: SNH is prolly preferrable But Best dynamics may shunt Expand I mean in sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 I mean I’ve given up.....it’s be nice if SVR season behaved but I’m sure somebody will fuk it up.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Gefs has a beautiful track but warm for the coast Have to see the members I had a feeling it was going to come in further south. I wouldn't be shocked to see it come even further south. The models always have a hard time with blocking. I have and still do believe that the models will also adjust colder as time goes on. I see this storm as a rain to snow event for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Yeah...beautiful right off the delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 0z EURO was intriguing. CTRV, E MA, and S NH screwgies. Somehow Taunton and New Bedford do fine though. Screwy algorithms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 6z GFS continues the trend toward less impactful storm. You can see how this won’t take much to return to the powerhouse runs o yesterday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Not a good set of overnight runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 On 2/26/2018 at 10:42 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Not a good set of overnight runs Expand The shunt, weak rates, warmer solution may just work out for you. Shunt ‘n rain. *Disclaimer: Above is not a forecast, just discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 On 2/26/2018 at 10:17 AM, NorEastermass128 said: 6z GFS continues the trend toward less impactful storm. You can see how this won’t take much to return to the powerhouse runs o yesterday though. Expand Eps and Euro still show snow as far south as down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 There is so much knee-jerking to each model run in this thread right now it’s crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 On 2/26/2018 at 10:52 AM, CoastalWx said: There is so much knee-jerking to each model run in this thread right now it’s crazy. Expand Sipprell still banging the shunt train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 On 2/26/2018 at 10:52 AM, CoastalWx said: There is so much knee-jerking to each model run in this thread right now it’s crazy. Expand Gonna happen when people discuss the model runs like we do on here and its still 4 days out. The difference in the EPS from 12z to 00z was pretty crazy. The mean now goes E to almost ESE right off the Delmarva. The QPF is a fraction of what the mean was at that monster 12z run, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Was hoping to wake to 5 new pages of weenie model interpretation. Shunt This hobby can be frustrating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 On 2/26/2018 at 11:17 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: Was hoping to wake to 5 new pages of weenie model interpretation. Shunt This hobby can be frustrating Expand Weenies took in the GFS and angrily went to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 On 2/26/2018 at 11:17 AM, powderfreak said: Gonna happen when people discuss the model runs like we do on here and its still 4 days out. The difference in the EPS from 12z to 00z was pretty crazy. The mean now goes E to almost ESE right off the Delmarva. The QPF is a fraction of what the mean was at that monster 12z run, lol. Expand Sit back and enjoy the weenie-coaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Very disturbing shunt on the EPS. Hopefully just typical noise. We'll see if it can come back this afternoon, or if it's time to move onto other things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 On 2/26/2018 at 11:23 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Very disturbing shunt on the EPS. Hopefully just typical noise. We'll see if it can come back this afternoon, or if it's time to move onto other things Expand Maybe it will trend slightly more north but the block is going to limit its northern movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 On 2/26/2018 at 11:22 AM, CoastalWx said: Sit back and enjoy the weenie-coaster. Expand It's the problem with being shown jackpot high-end event for a few model runs at Day 5-6. If anyone thought the models were just going to spit that solution out for 5 days straight, they are fooling themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 I love how the GFS refuses to actually comply with meteorological rules and saturate the lower levels. Unreal. What a mess that model is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 On 2/26/2018 at 11:27 AM, Snow88 said: Maybe it will trend slightly more north but the block is going to limit its northern movement. Expand Just check in and see if Dryslot is posting or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 On 2/26/2018 at 11:17 AM, powderfreak said: Gonna happen when people discuss the model runs like we do on here and its still 4 days out. The difference in the EPS from 12z to 00z was pretty crazy. The mean now goes E to almost ESE right off the Delmarva. The QPF is a fraction of what the mean was at that monster 12z run, lol. Expand Yeah...WPC not enthusiastic for anywhere in NNE. However when there have been repeated runs with big qpf, that often returns or trends back as we get closer. Fingers crossed. But I'm struck by the warmth last week and this week...not sure where we head after that but the high latitude blocking hasn't brought cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 On 2/26/2018 at 11:27 AM, powderfreak said: It's the problem with being shown jackpot high-end event for a few model runs at Day 5-6. If anyone thought the models were just going to spit that solution out for 5 days straight, they are fooling themselves. Expand One piece of s/w energy is saying hello to Anchorage today and the other kissing the coast of the PAC NW. As usual, guidance will have no clue until these features (esp the energy in AK) are better sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 The cips analogs are pretty fun. 4/1/97, 3/5/01, 3/7/13 are all in there, lol. Anyways, I wouldn't worry so much about the oscillations. We saw an even further south run in the previous 00z run before it wildly swung back north at 12z. The synoptic setup is largely the same. Down here, we prob want it a little south anyway...beware the surge north late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 It's going to come back.....watch. Not whiffing with -PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 On 2/26/2018 at 11:37 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: It's going to come back.....watch. Not whiffing with -PNA. Expand It’s not really gone. EURO still a moderate hit for most away from the coast and CTRV. I understand what you’re saying though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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