PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: The GEFS doesn’t agree with the operational. Every run has been progressively ticking further and further east Did you at least get yesterday's layup right ? Just curious , I don't hang in here , so I am just asking ( I posted on the first 2 - 10 days ago ) Monday will be # 3 , I posted on that in here on Sunday Not sure where the heaviest axis will be but that's going to just S of the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Did you at least get yesterday's layup right ? Just curious , I don't hang in here , so I am just asking ( I posted on the first 2 - 10 days ago ) Monday will be # 3 , I posted on that in here on Sunday Not sure where the heaviest axis will be but that's going to just S of the BM So your pretty confident that the models will correct NW over the next couple days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: So your pretty confident that the models will correct NW over the next couple days? Ignore the models , that neg off the WC teleconnects to one right on the EC The ridge axis is perfect for this to come up in a good spot Miller A / hybrids like to come N in the end and the block isn't so stout that it blocks it If the N Branch catches it , this will phase and develop a huge barroclinic leaf , that part is in question The alternative is the N Branch kicks the backside of the S Branch and turns it N Its weaker but still comes near the BM These guys will just give you run to run analysis , these simulations are not how one forecasts Just look at the 500 BM pattern , the height falls will allow this bend around As far as RS line , you will know that by Sat Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 That storm for next Wednesday and Thursday that wouldn't be noreaster number 4 would it ?Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 16 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Ignore the models , that neg off the WC teleconnects to one right on the EC The ridge axis is perfect for this to come up in a good spot Miller A / hybrids like to come N in the end and the block isn't so stout that it blocks it If the N Branch catches it , this will phase and develop a huge barroclinic leaf , that part is in question The alternative is the N Branch kicks the backside of the S Branch and turns it N Its weaker but still comes near the BM These guys will just give you run to run analysis , these simulations are not how one forecasts Just look at the 500 BM pattern , the height falls will allow this bend around As far as RS line , you will know that by Sat Good luck Even if this tracks close enough to provide us with precipitation, isn't there too little cold air aloft to support frozen precip? I feel that it would be a much different scenario thermally than the storm we had yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lovewinter Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 My TWC forecast for Monday night says “Watching for a potential winter storm”. I don’t ever remember a forecast worded like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 with just some simple guidance... this has the goods to produce system has enough time to dig a bit deeper-- imo don't think we will lose out completely here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 and there you go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Doorman said: and there you go.... Nice to see you back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, Mophstymeo said: Nice to see you back! thank you big M small reminder--- that image is for 8:00 pm EDT Monday night we spring ahead one hour on Sunday!!!! https://www.timeanddate.com/time/change/usa/new-york?year=2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The Bronx is not Manhattan and that's the measuring stick that some in here use when talking about the city and no accumulations The counties accumulate Staten Island got 6 , Brooklyn 4 , but you have some in here who have no idea how the N shore of L I acts and run R/S likes from the Hudson west every single time I'm on 132nd St right now and there's snow on the ground. BUT I agree with your general point about the North Shore. The east/west gradient is often overdone in these storms: everyone was saying Manhattan would get 12+ and LI nothing, and the opposite basically happened. The North Shore of Long Island probably averages slightly more than parts of SE CT, especially in recent years. My friend and college roommate grew up in Lyme and often got less than Port Jefferson, Great Neck, even Upton. Weird. Groton is truly a snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 hour ago, husky0101 said: Even if this tracks close enough to provide us with precipitation, isn't there too little cold air aloft to support frozen precip? I feel that it would be a much different scenario thermally than the storm we had yesterday. I actually think it would be colder than yesterday. The previous system has dragged down a lot of cold air with -7C 850s moving into the region. Also, the track looks offshore instead of a hugger like 3/7. Could jackpot Long Island and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018030900&fh=120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 0Z Canadian came west slightly with next weeks system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 I'm riding the king NAM. This will be a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, David-LI said: I'm riding the king NAM. This will be a miss. NAM is not in its accurate range < 60 hours yet for this storm - plus how many systems in the last month have missed us to the south ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 hours ago, Doorman said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2018030900&fh=120 Tommy , I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 NAM is not in its accurate range Tele's have us in a good spot here. The key remains the timing, though, and this is why I'm glad the NAO still looks to be negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 EPS is a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 25 minutes ago, snowman19 said: EPS is a miss The child is tenacious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 58 minutes ago, snowman19 said: EPS is a miss Captain obvious to the rescue! When we got hammered by this past storm , you pulled a Houdini and dissapeared. We still have time for this to trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 54 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: Captain obvious to the rescue! When we got hammered by this past storm , you pulled a Houdini and dissapeared. We still have time for this to trend north. He only posts about the EURO and the EPS if you have noticed or the one that gives the least snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Snowman said EPS was a miss, which is true. What he fails to mention though is that it bumped north, which it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Captain obvious to the rescue! When we got hammered by this past storm , you pulled a Houdini and dissapeared. We still have time for this to trend north. Meteo data supports the farther N SECS look. Some model data supports the squashed look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 energy not sampled yet razor thin line for a very nice hit in the metro from the NCEP ENS guidance https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/mslp_f096_us.html still in the game until the river card Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 hours ago, Neblizzard said: Captain obvious to the rescue! When we got hammered by this past storm , you pulled a Houdini and dissapeared. We still have time for this to trend north. Go back and look at my posts. I was all in for that storm, hyped it up in fact. As far as the EPS being further north, too little too late. Complete total miss with little over 2 days to go. It doesn’t even get snow to Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 From what I can see, EPS mean offered 2" of total miss in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Go back and look at my posts. I was all in for that storm, hyped it up in fact. As far as the EPS being further north, too little too late. Complete total miss with little over 2 days to go. It doesn’t even get snow to Philly2 days to go? I thought this was slowing down on most guidance and those Northern models wait for ull to catch up which brings it North days 3.5+? So this is a Sunday AM event if at all you are saying? Not sure we are looking at same storm/energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 43 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Go back and look at my posts. I was all in for that storm, hyped it up in fact. As far as the EPS being further north, too little too late. Complete total miss with little over 2 days to go. It doesn’t even get snow to Philly Not really sure what to say to such an incorrect post. Stop misinforming other people on this sub forum!! The EPS had a lot of west leaning members. Give everyone the whole picture. Also to comment on your claim that it is a little over two days WTH.... this is a Sunday night at the earliest but mainly Mon-Mon night if it comes to fruition. So that is more like 3 days away (72 hour) which is plenty of time to correct but we need for that to continue today and in earnest. If we don’t still to see improvements today then it more than likely would be game over. Can someone tell me when the rest of the players will be on the field because that also comes into play when the models would start to have a better handle on the situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: EPS is a miss Lol. It's way west of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.