allgame830 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 000 FXUS61 KOKX 081837 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 137 PM EST Thu Mar 8 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Weakening low pressure will lift northward into eastern Canada this evening. An upper low will then move across the area tonight into Friday. This will maintain a broad area of low pressure across the Northeast. High pressure will then slowly build to the south and west through Sunday. Another storm may impact the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Increased clouds with otherwise no other remarkable changes to the forecast database. Low pressure lifts north into the Gulf of Maine today while weakening. This will keep the area in a gusty west flow today as the low lifts north, being steered by a large upper low that approaches from the Great Lakes today. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal. Highs will be in the lower 40s. With the approaching upper low and deep-layered cyclonic flow, can not rule out an afternoon snow shower or flurry to the north and west of NYC. The subsident westerly flow though does not favor much development or progression into our area. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Upper low progresses across the area late tonight into early Friday. With the upstream block over the western Atlantic, the low slowly lifts up into the Canadian Maritimes into Friday night. A deepening oceanic low develops in response to this system, passing well north and east of the area Friday into Friday night. This will keep the area under a prolonged period of westerly flow, which will gust at times up to 25 mph during the daytime hours. Once again, there will be a low chance of snow showers across the hills north and west of NYC on Friday. With continued cold advection across the region, both highs and lows will be several degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper low over the Northeast finally departs into the Canadian Maritimes Fri night with weak ridging building in for the weekend. This will bring a return to dry weather with near normal temps across the area. All attention then turns to the next storm system moving through the SE states and expected to potentially impact the local area early next week. There is a lot of spread in the GEFS/ECENS although the signal is there for another coastal storm. What is very uncertain is the track and the strength which will determine exact impacts. The one thing that does look fairly certain is that there won`t be an arctic airmass preceding the event, so cold air would need to be dynamically generated. This could happen given a model consensus of sharp troughing over the Great Lakes/Northeast/Mid Atlantic regions. Pcpn could start to overspread the area Sun night but the bulk of the event appears to occur Mon/Mon night. Have maintained chance Pops during this time due to the uncertainty in track. Thermal profiles could be marginally cold enough for snow at night and rain during the day, but again this will depend on the exact track of the storm. The low will intensify as it lifts towards the Canadian Maritimes on Tue and remains there into the middle of next week. This will result in a breezy westerly flow across the area and below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, allgame830 said: All EPS members are OTS... time may be running out for Monday. Ensrmble member 20! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 22 minutes ago, Rjay said: Ensrmble member 20! OK lock it in!! I will gladly take another moderate snowfall... 3-6! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 31 minutes ago, Rjay said: Ensrmble member 20! I'll pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Much more northern stream interaction on the 18z GFS at hour 73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Gfs is a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Gfs is a hit Come on ANT give a little more analysis besides just its a hit.... u post a lot of 1 to 2 liners LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 The GFS has .25 contour back to NW Jersey, with .50 just NW of the city and the 1" line over far eastern LI and C-SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Would Monday's Noreaster # 3 if it comes to fruition have colder air to work with than the last 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, allgame830 said: The GFS has .25 contour back to NW Jersey, with .50 just NW of the city and the 1" line over far eastern LI and C-SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 The GEFS doesn’t agree with the operational. Every run has been progressively ticking further and further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 17 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Up until two days ago, we scoffed at the GFS. Now, it's 18Z GFS all the way!!! :-) In all seriousness, I'm about this one since I was in the SW Suffolk screw zone yesterday. Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 No reason to believe this won't trend NW just like every system this year. Unfortunately the GFS is pretty much alone at this stage, maybe the ICON is kind of onboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 14 minutes ago, Eduardo said: Up until two days ago, we scoffed at the GFS. Now, it's 18Z GFS all the way!!! :-) In all seriousness, I'm about this one since I was in the SW Suffolk screw zone yesterday. Bring it on! There is a big difference between ascertaining a general synoptic pattern (threat) from the GFS versus believing the model's specific thermal profiles, such as boundary layer temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, nzucker said: There is a big difference between ascertaining a general synoptic pattern (threat) from the GFS versus believing the model's specific thermal profiles, such as boundary layer temperatures. The other part too is that the GFS is known to have a progressive bias so it's definitely noteworthy when it's one of the more amped models IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, sn0w said: The other part too is that the GFS is known to have a progressive bias so it's definitely noteworthy when it's one of the more amped models IMO Is agree with this. The other models have all the pieces they just aren’t coming together. This threat is real and shouldn’t be written off. Same exact thing happened with the last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 41 minutes ago, nzucker said: There is a big difference between ascertaining a general synoptic pattern (threat) from the GFS versus believing the model's specific thermal profiles, such as boundary layer temperatures. Bingo - huge difference between track and temps - GFS has been right on track more than a few times, but will always suck on thermodynamics and heat transfer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 54 minutes ago, nzucker said: There is a big difference between ascertaining a general synoptic pattern (threat) from the GFS versus believing the model's specific thermal profiles, such as boundary layer temperatures. 47 minutes ago, sn0w said: The other part too is that the GFS is known to have a progressive bias so it's definitely noteworthy when it's one of the more amped models IMO 42 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Is agree with this. The other models have all the pieces they just aren’t coming together. This threat is real and shouldn’t be written off. Same exact thing happened with the last storm 12 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Bingo - huge difference between track and temps - GFS has been right on track more than a few times, but will always suck on thermodynamics and heat transfer... Ya I'm painting with a broad brush in jest. I do seriously appreciate the nuances of its strengths and weaknesses. You are all correct that there is a legit threat here. So many pieces in play that need to come together just right for it to materialize though (especially for us coasties). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: No reason to believe this won't trend NW just like every system this year. Unfortunately the GFS is pretty much alone at this stage, maybe the ICON is kind of onboard. Dont forget Eps member 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The GEFS doesn’t agree with the operational. Every run has been progressively ticking further and further east I’m sorry someone needs to call you out. Wrong plain and simple. GEFS trended north from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 not a bad look at 96hrs from the OPC http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml ESRL https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ens.html legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said: I’m sorry someone needs to call you out. Wrong plain and simple. GEFS trended north from 12z. Yea correct I was going to say something but did not feel like wasting my breathe... there is a reason why he is 5 posted.... GFS was very encouraging and some of the EPS members are west of OP. The GFS this winter has been pretty good from 75-105 hours but has had a lot of problems under 70 hours. We’ll see I still like this threat and believe it will track further NW either starting tonight or tomorrow 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: I’m sorry someone needs to call you out. Wrong plain and simple. GEFS trended north from 12z. Looks pretty clear to me. Don't know what he's looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Don't do this crap again Is it possible that this potential noreaster works with colder air ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 14 minutes ago, sferic said: Is it possible that this potential noreaster works with colder air ? No. Same stale airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 34 minutes ago, sferic said: Is it possible that this potential noreaster works with colder air ? 19 minutes ago, Rjay said: No. Same stale airmass. More than likely more comparable to Nor’easter #2 then the 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 35 minutes ago, sferic said: Is it possible that this potential noreaster works with colder air ? Same surpass Track will be the key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Same surpass Track will be the key Also need a strong enough SLP to be able to generate its own cold air.. a weak one even with a perfect track would flood the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 7 hours ago, nzucker said: Saying no snow accumulated in NYC is an exaggeration...had 5-6" in the Bronx. The Bronx is not Manhattan and that's the measuring stick that some in here use when talking about the city and no accumulations The counties accumulate Staten Island got 6 , Brooklyn 4 , but you have some in here who have no idea how the N shore of L I acts and run R/S likes from the Hudson west every single time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Third time is the charm especially for NYC/LI...hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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