NJwx85 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 The 12z GGEM was OTS as well and the 12z GEFS appear to all be well OTS like the UKMET. Could be a fluky model cycle as models attempt to handle yesterday's storm. As discussed it's a complex setup at H5 with many moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nao is reloading so don't expect spring anytime soon Slightly negative, not the type of drop we just saw. The upcoming pattern looks average for late Winter - early Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Long range NAM, but I just wanted to show how complex this setup for next week is at H5. There are actually four pieces at play. We need something to bring this system back towards the coast, otherwise it's minimal impact with perhaps some snow for the interior Mid-Atlantic. One of the biggest players you didnt label. That's the confluence just north of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: Not quite Portugal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I think the next two weeks of March is going to average slightly below normal. My forecast shows highs around 41-42F while averages are moving into the mid and upper 40s. NYC's average high hits 50F around the Equinox. I think the trough in control will give us 1-2 more threats, starting with Monday. The UKMET is pretty close to a major Nor'easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, Rjay said: One of the biggest players you didnt label. That's the confluence just north of Maine. We need that feature to be more in the traditional 50/50 position. If it presses too far to the south over Maine, the storm will be suppressed. It needs to shift slightly northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 13 hours ago, USCG RS said: Honestly, Smithtown and points east in the north shore were hit pretty hard (I'm not sure about the rest of the area, I can only account for where I was). This storm was just a bit too close to the coast, for this time of year. Had the main SLP been the one which took over later (near bm) and not the one right next to the coast, NYC and LI would have been absolutely rocked. We go thru this every year , these guys have no clue how the N shore of LI acts It's not NYC , nothing accumulated there but 8 to 10 fell from Laurel Hollow to Lloyds Neck out towards Smithtown The N shore of LI acts like SNE once you're N of Jehrico tpke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: We go thru this every year , these guys have no clue how the N shore of LI acts It's not NYC , nothing accumulated there but 8 to 10 fell from Laurel Hollow to Lloyds Neck out towards Smithtown The N shore of LI acts like SNE once you're N of Jehrico tpke Yup. When I drove north from the Lab on Wm. Floyd yesterday afternoon, it was like someone flipped a switch when I hit the Rte. 25 overpass - went from full-on sleet/rain storm to blinding snow. So much snowier north of there and back west towards my house in Port Jeff Station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 CMC ensembles look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 38 minutes ago, Rjay said: One of the biggest players you didnt label. That's the confluence just north of Maine. I saw that and debated labeling it, but on most guidance that gets out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 16 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: We go thru this every year , these guys have no clue how the N shore of LI acts It's not NYC , nothing accumulated there but 8 to 10 fell from Laurel Hollow to Lloyds Neck out towards Smithtown The N shore of LI acts like SNE once you're N of Jehrico tpke I wouldn’t exactly say it didn’t accumulate in the city. Just north of midtown it was a whole different world. I had 6” at Columbia. It was the heart of the heat island that killed accumulations. The city had hours of heavy snow some of which was 3”/hr with thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: I can remember 2 major noreasters within 4 days for parts of the region. But I can't remember I there was ever a third so soon after for 3 in about 10 days before. 2/5/10, 2/10/10, and 2/16/10. The 2/26/10 Snowicane was only ten days after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, nzucker said: 2/5/10, 2/10/10, and 2/16/10. The 2/26/10 Snowicane was only ten days after. 2/5 was a Mid Atlantic special, little impacts north of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: We missed the 2/5 storm here due to suppression. So the 2/26 storm for us was day 16 starting on the 10th for storm 3. It was still 3 Nor'easters in 10 days. Parts of Staten Island got a good snowfall from 2/5, as well. That was an amazing month in Dobbs Ferry. Had 13" on 2/10, 6.5" on 2/16, and 26" on 2/26. Nearly 50" in one month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 The storm is basically gone on the 12z Euro. We're left with just a dry clipper. As you can see here, no phasing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 49 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: We go thru this every year , these guys have no clue how the N shore of LI acts It's not NYC , nothing accumulated there but 8 to 10 fell from Laurel Hollow to Lloyds Neck out towards Smithtown The N shore of LI acts like SNE once you're N of Jehrico tpke Saying no snow accumulated in NYC is an exaggeration...had 5-6" in the Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, nzucker said: It was still 3 Nor'easters in 10 days. Parts of Staten Island got a good snowfall from 2/5, as well. That was an amazing month in Dobbs Ferry. Had 13" on 2/10, 6.5" on 2/16, and 26" on 2/26. Nearly 50" in one month. An amazing year in general. I was in Ellicott City, Maryland at the time, commuting to College Park for my senior year. The Baltimore area will be hard pressed to see snow like that again in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: An amazing year in general. I was in Ellicott City, Maryland at the time, commuting to College Park for my senior year. The Baltimore area will be hard pressed to see snow like that again in my lifetime. Yea, we had 48" in one month. Some parts of MD/VA/SE PA had that amount in 2 storms, 2/5 and 2/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: 2/16 wasn't really a major noreaster compared to the impacts of the recent 2 storms here. The big events at least in the metro were 2/11 and 2/26 that month. Yes, the 2/16 storm was a moderate 4-8" snowfall. Could have been a HUGE snowpack if Feb 2010 had been colder. There were some warm days though in between the 2/10 and 2/26 systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, nzucker said: Yea, we had 48" in one month. Some parts of MD/VA/SE PA had that amount in 2 storms, 2/5 and 2/10. 2/5 was the most impressive output of moisture I've ever seen, bar none. We got about 32 inches in Ellicott City. There's a point during a blizzard when the snow just begins dumping those needle flakes at prolific rates. But during 2/5, the flakes remained dime or even quarter-sized the entire time, with temperatures reaching the single-digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edubbs83 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 40 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: An amazing year in general. I was in Ellicott City, Maryland at the time, commuting to College Park for my senior year. The Baltimore area will be hard pressed to see snow like that again in my lifetime. Was living in Arlington,Va that year going to business school in DC. Remember about 4 feet of snow on the ground. Most I can ever recall seeing on the ground in major urban area and I’ve lived on LI/NYC for pretty much my entire life. Felt like I didn’t have class for a month with those feb storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 47 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the -AO/-NAO in 09-10 was just too overpowering for NYC to take a run at 95-96. Totals in that range were forced just our south that winter. The 95-96 winter is still the one type of snowfall extreme that the 2010's haven't been able to reproduce for us. I was thinking NYC may have had a shot a week or two before the 10-11 pattern ran out of gas. But that AO reversal was as harsh as we have ever seen after such an amazing 32 days of snow. 2010-11 had some missed opportunity in early Dec with a lot of cold air but no storms. Then the NAO block disappeared in late Jan not to reemerge until the 3/21 and 3/24 events, which were minor. Still managed 70" in Westchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, nzucker said: 2010-11 had some missed opportunity in early Dec with a lot of cold air but no storms. Then the NAO block disappeared in late Jan not to reemerge until the 3/21 and 3/24 events, which were minor. Still managed 70" in Westchester. Yes that winter was truely amazing, I was living in Tarrytown at the time and I remember having almost a 3 foot snow depth in my backyard. I believe I finished off the winter with about 75". Definitely the best winter I have ever experienced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Yes that winter was truely amazing, I was living in Tarrytown at the time and I remember having almost a 3 foot snow depth in my backyard. I believe I finished off the winter with about 75". Definitely the best winter I have ever experienced. Yes, it was my best winter in this area. I was living in Dobbs Ferry and measured 70". We missed out on the heaviest bands in Boxing Day but got crushed in the other two January events. I had 25" in my front lawn after 1/27 and again after 2/2...close to 30" in the woods. Was up there with 13-14 for snowpack. Dobbs Ferry had 74" in 13-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, nzucker said: Yes, it was my best winter in this area. I was living in Dobbs Ferry and measured 70". We missed out on the heaviest bands in Boxing Day but got crushed in the other two January events. I had 25" in my front lawn after 1/27 and again after 2/2...close to 30" in the woods. Was up there with 13-14 for snowpack. Dobbs Ferry had 74" in 13-14. We had SOOO many great winters in that stretch which makes it hard to distinguish them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 All EPS members are OTS... time may be running out for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, snow1 said: Monday looks to be a done deal at this time. Bring on spring. Well I would give it until tomorrow 0z or 12z Saturday at the latest... all of the pieces have not been sampled yet. Can't write something off until that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, snow1 said: Monday looks to be a done deal at this time. Bring on spring. There is another threat on the 12z ECM at 150 hours. Deep trough in the East with energy rounding the base. Looks to slide just offshore but it could easily shift west. I doubt we have seen our last snowfall with the major trough persisting in the East. Looks like a western ridge/eastern trough pattern for the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 29 minutes ago, snow1 said: Monday looks to be a done deal at this time. Bring on spring. Seriously ? You are going to be waiting a while for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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