Juliancolton Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I thought that was a step back from 18z in the upper levels... sloppier and slower phasing of the two shortwaves with a delayed entrance from the Ontario trough, and lower heights both up and downstream. That's still a pretty nice solution as depicted for the coast and especially New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: I think even the coast is okay as long as you're not in the city. I did just fine in the suburbs and I'm pretty close to the coast. It doesn't have as much to do with being at the coast as much as it does urbanization. Urbanization is a far more serious problem than being near the ocean. I mean parts of Long Island got close to 10" today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 This either will totally miss almost everyone including DCA or it’s going to come way north. Maybe too far. I’m not sure there is really a middle ground with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This either will totally miss almost everyone including DCA or it’s going to come way north. Maybe too far. I’m not sure there is really a middle ground with this But if it comes north- how can it be too far north if it also comes up east? What are some good analogs for this? Let's say it takes a track from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 00z GEM is on board. Although it seems like a double barrel low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liwxfan Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, USCG RS said: Honestly, Smithtown and points east in the north shore were hit pretty hard (I'm not sure about the rest of the area, I can only account for where I was). This storm was just a bit too close to the coast, for this time of year. Had the main SLP been the one which took over later (near bm) and not the one right next to the coast, NYC and LI would have been absolutely rocked. Here in miller place. Ended up with around 8 or 9 inches..changed to rain for a bit but snowing lightly again. Hardest snow I’ve seen since Nemo 2/8/13 today from around 5-8 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Seems with the next event that there's a 50-50 low feature that could prevent a too west/amped track, but it's transient and could be out of the way. There's also a big piece of northern stream energy right behind the developing storm-right now models aren't phasing them but if it dives in and phases, this could be a monster. But said monster would want to track to the west, we'd need the resistance from the 50-50 low to push it SE enough. Without that phase it looks fairly run of the mill but could be nice for colder spots (around the city I'd be hesitant to think much sticks if it's a daytime event and rates aren't good). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 38degs., or about 3degs. BN. CFS is BN for the rest of month now. The normal mean temperature will be rising another 8 degrees by April 01, from today's mean, so may not help much with any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Has anyone looked at CIPS analogs at 96 and 120 hours? There are some doozy's on that list 2/11/83, 2/6/10, 3/13/93, 2/12/06, 2/9/13, 1/22/14, 1/27/15.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: Has anyone looked at CIPS analogs at 96 and 120 hours? There are some doozy's on that list 2/11/83, 2/6/10, 3/13/93, 2/12/06, 2/9/13, 1/22/14, 1/27/15.... This threat has some really good potential hopefully we can cash in on it even the coast... having the -NAO will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 20 minutes ago, allgame830 said: This threat has some really good potential hopefully we can cash in on it even the coast... having the -NAO will help that -nao hasn't helped the coast the last two events...if only this setup would have shown up 4-6 weeks ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: that -nao hasn't helped the coast the last two events...if only this setup would have shown up 4-6 weeks ago.... Very true let's see how the next few days of models unfold. I really like having the EURO far east at this point with the overall correction of NW on most of our storms this winter. But unfortunately with the point you made this next "possible" noreaster at this time stills favors places NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 8 hours ago, liwxfan said: Here in miller place. Ended up with around 8 or 9 inches..changed to rain for a bit but snowing lightly again. Hardest snow I’ve seen since Nemo 2/8/13 today from around 5-8 pm From what JM and Mitch Volk said, the problem seemed to be a combo of dry air intrusion and warm surface temps, so the rates just couldn't get the job done. The drier air was just bad luck. CNJ sucked up the sick bands which started about ten minutes west of me. I had 4 inches and 2 miles from me had 6, 5 miles had 9, and so on til about 20 miles where they had double digits. Saw the reverse on Boxing Day. Most of my snow fell in the first 2 hours. At the rate it was coming it looked like we could hit a foot or more easily. But I wasn't home I was about a 15 min drive west. That area did get 10 inches. Well it has only been two years since I had two feet, so it's ok. Prefer big storms when its colder and the snow is more manageable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, allgame830 said: Very true let's see how the next few days of models unfold. I really like having the EURO far east at this point with the overall correction of NW on most of our storms this winter. But unfortunately with the point you made this next "possible" noreaster at this time stills favors places NW of the city. I've been wondering, what exactly is responsible for that SE bias that most of the models have had for a lot of the storms this winter? That last-minute NW trend, what are the models struggling to resolve that causes that trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: From what JM and Mitch Volk said, the problem seemed to be a combo of dry air intrusion and warm surface temps, so the rates just couldn't get the job done. The drier air was just bad luck. CNJ sucked up the sick bands which started about ten minutes west of me. I had 4 inches and 2 miles from me had 6, 5 miles had 9, and so on til about 20 miles where they had double digits. Saw the reverse on Boxing Day. Most of my snow fell in the first 2 hours. At the rate it was coming it looked like we could hit a foot or more easily. But I wasn't home I was about a 15 min drive west. That area did get 10 inches. Well it has only been two years since I had two feet, so it's ok. Prefer big storms when its colder and the snow is more manageable. I had 3" where I live with the precipitation ending as rain. 17 miles away, 13.5" fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Long range NAM, but I just wanted to show how complex this setup for next week is at H5. There are actually four pieces at play. We need something to bring this system back towards the coast, otherwise it's minimal impact with perhaps some snow for the interior Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 36 minutes ago, husky0101 said: I've been wondering, what exactly is responsible for that SE bias that most of the models have had for a lot of the storms this winter? That last-minute NW trend, what are the models struggling to resolve that causes that trend? Good question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Long range NAM, but I just wanted to show how complex this setup for next week is at H5. There are actually four pieces at play. We need something to bring this system back towards the coast, otherwise it's minimal impact with perhaps some snow for the interior Mid-Atlantic. Still plenty of time. Pretty much every storm lately has been lost in the mid range only to come back with a vengeance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 8, 2018 Author Share Posted March 8, 2018 This is getting squashed to the south in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Running out of time on this one...H5 is primed, but the timing is all off. If Euro doesn't latch onto something by tomorrow morning, I'll sign off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: Statistically speaking, I can't remember the last time we had 3 major noreasters in roughly a 10 day period. In the past, storm spacing between at least one of the departing storms and new ones has lead to suppression. So it will be interesting to see if storm number 3 can avoid suppression. This would be a first hat trick that I know of for early March. Actually, between 1st and 2nd noreaster there was only 4 days... this would be 4 days as well between 2nd and 3rd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 12Z GFS was very close. Our storm from yesterday becomes the 50/50 low (marked with an X). Just need that Southern stream energy to get further out ahead so that energy dropping South from Canada steers the system up and in instead of up and out. Even closes off at H5 just off the NJ coast this run with measurable precip making it into SNJ and E LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 As much as we love and want big snows, this third storm missing will be a welcome relief for most people having gone through downed trees and power loss. If another major noreaster were to hit with people still without power and still cleaning up, a lot crying "Uncle" and "Mercy" would be in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: As much as we love and want big snows, this third storm missing will be a welcome relief for most people having gone through downed trees and power loss. If another major noreaster were to hit with people still without power and still cleaning up, a lot crying "Uncle" and "Mercy" would be in the air. I agree. 10 inches in Easton. Lost power and tree is on my house. I love snowstorms but done for the year. 37.5 for the year. Above average for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 The UKMET is in like Portugal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 This is the storm that probably breaks down the pattern, so it would be nice to cash in on one last threat, especially considering that the average high temperature in NYC is already 47 degrees and will be in the lower 50's soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: This is the storm that probably breaks down the pattern, so it would be nice to cash in on one last threat, especially considering that the average high temperature in NYC is already 47 degrees and will be in the lower 50's soon. It looks pretty freezing to me in the long range still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET is in like Portugal Yeah it's totally flat and way OTS. I think part of it is because the UKMET takes our storm from yesterday and retrogrades it up into Canada so we lose the 50/50 block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: It looks pretty freezing to me in the long range still I thought it looked about average temperature wise, maybe slightly below. Just pointing out that it's going to get increasingly difficult to get accumulating snow, especially in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This is the storm that probably breaks down the pattern, so it would be nice to cash in on one last threat, especially considering that the average high temperature in NYC is already 47 degrees and will be in the lower 50's soon. Nao is reloading so don't expect spring anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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