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March 2018 Model Discussion


WeatherFeen2000

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1 hour ago, Meteoropoulos said:

She's looking like a winner! Long way to go, but this has the potential to be a biggie to say the least! 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

Yes! Thats our big one, love how it's off the coast so zero chance of mixing or changeover.  I love how it was suppressed in previous runs- thats key to getting the big snows here.

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4 hours ago, snow1 said:

Euro is a miss 

No way is that storm staying suppressed with indices quickly rising plus seasonal trends. 

I'd be more alarmed if it wasn't suppressed this far out. 

However the same March problems would likely reappear with a non-arctic airmass in place. That's why this pattern would've been 20X better had it occurred a month ago. 

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

No way is that storm staying suppressed with indices quickly rising plus seasonal trends. 

I'd be more alarmed if it wasn't suppressed this far out. 

However the same March problems would likely reappear with a non-arctic airmass in place. That's why this pattern would've been 20X better had it occurred a month ago. 

I was going to say, the dynamics don’t get much stronger than they were today and the coast still had major problems accumulating. Same thing happened here until 12:30 when all hell broke loose.

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

If we get the storm on Monday and I believe we will, it certainly looks to be much stronger then today's and most likely another slow mover as well.

Key issue for people in the city will again be the BL temps.  Screwed by two storms in a row here with heavy snow falling but little accumulation (at least there were a few with today's storm vs 0 last week).

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

I was going to say, the dynamics don’t get much stronger than they were today and the coast still had major problems accumulating. Same thing happened here until 12:30 when all hell broke loose.

I think even the coast is okay as long as you're not in the city. I did just fine in the suburbs and I'm pretty close to the coast.

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Call me nuts, but I almost don't mind this being so far east 4 days out as long as another model like the GFs has it coming up the coast! We all know the seasonal trend is west, and the current pattern also works for us.I am thinking this is our last chance for something good. I would love to take advantage of the major blocking one more time, but this time to get NYC in on it without the threat of rain! 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_7.png

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15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think even the coast is okay as long as you're not in the city. I did just fine in the suburbs and I'm pretty close to the coast.

Yea UHI was a killer.  You really need an anomalously cold air mass that keeps temps at or below freezing for snow to accumulate to its potential. 

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33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think even the coast is okay as long as you're not in the city. I did just fine in the suburbs and I'm pretty close to the coast.

Drive from exit 10 to exit 11 on the NJTP and you will see a huge difference. A ten minute drive if that.

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I was going to say, the dynamics don’t get much stronger than they were today and the coast still had major problems accumulating. Same thing happened here until 12:30 when all hell broke loose.

Honestly, Smithtown and points east in the north shore were hit pretty hard (I'm not sure about the rest of the area, I can only account for where I was). This storm was just a bit too close to the coast, for this time of year. Had the main SLP been the one which took over later (near bm) and not the one right next to the coast, NYC and LI would have been absolutely rocked.

 

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13 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Honestly, Smithtown and points east in the north shore were hit pretty hard (I'm not sure about the rest of the area, I can only account for where I was). This storm was just a bit too close to the coast, for this time of year. Had the main SLP been the one which took over later (near bm) and not the one right next to the coast, NYC and LI would have been absolutely rocked.

 

The warm mid level air got nowhere close to here. We had good rates here for an hour maybe. A problem might have been that the low got going too late, meaning there wasn’t a well developed CCB and the WAA driven snow had plenty of dry patches. The snow I had from 1-4pm would come down hard for 20 minutes to just dry up again in between cells. But this storm in general just seemed to be very banded, more so than normal. It wasn’t a problem of “the coast just can’t accumulate in March”. We accumulated fine when there was actually decent rates coming down. 

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We've had plenty of Marches with arctic air, the problem was often the storm track.

This time it's the opposite, the storm tracks are great but the airmasses are marginal. The SSW that led to the blocking happened too late in the season for coastal areas. 

Mondays storm looks like a mix between the last two coastals. If you got hammered with today's storm, you'll do it again. For everyone else it'll be another battle that you're probably gonna lose. 

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11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We've had plenty of Marches with arctic air, the problem was often the storm track.

This time it's the opposite, the storm tracks are great but the airmasses are marginal. The SSW that led to the blocking happened too late in the season for coastal areas. 

Mondays storm looks like a mix between the last two coastals. If you got hammered with today's storm, you'll do it again. For everyone else it'll be another battle that you're probably gonna lose. 

If most of it happens at night then we have a chance.  I like this track better than the tracks of the other two.

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