Brasiluvsnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 I think this would be on or around Next Monday ??? time frame please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: I think this would be on or around Next Monday ??? time frame please Monday into Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 4, 2018 Share Posted March 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Monday into Tuesday Thanks 88 still learning how to read tidbits properly,,ps family flying in next Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 She's looking like a winner! Long way to go, but this has the potential to be a biggie to say the least! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Meteoropoulos said: She's looking like a winner! Long way to go, but this has the potential to be a biggie to say the least! Yes! Thats our big one, love how it's off the coast so zero chance of mixing or changeover. I love how it was suppressed in previous runs- thats key to getting the big snows here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 hours ago, Paragon said: Yes! Thats our big one, love how it's off the coast so zero chance of mixing or changeover. I love how it was suppressed in previous runs- thats key to getting the big snows here. Gfs is further north now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 is this progged to be a slow mover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Gfs has a HECS for monday close to 15 inches and a huge storm! Looks good and it's not that far out. About 114 hrs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Am I seeing things or dies the UKMET show a major snowstorm with GFS next week? GGEM lost the storm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Am I seeing things or dies the UKMET show a major snowstorm with GFS next week? GGEM lost the storm again. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Euro is a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 32 minutes ago, snow1 said: Euro is a miss That's fine by me ! (never want to be in the bullyseye) this far out...MY GUT ...tells me by ,,,,by Friday Oz Suite ..(WE MAY SEE some amazing things) But as always,,,with POWDER KEG potential million ,,,dollar question will it go BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 4 hours ago, snow1 said: Euro is a miss No way is that storm staying suppressed with indices quickly rising plus seasonal trends. I'd be more alarmed if it wasn't suppressed this far out. However the same March problems would likely reappear with a non-arctic airmass in place. That's why this pattern would've been 20X better had it occurred a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 If we get the storm on Monday and I believe we will, it certainly looks to be much stronger then today's and most likely another slow mover as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: If we get the storm on Monday and I believe we will, it certainly looks to be much stronger then today's and most likely another slow mover as well. Isn't guidance saying no for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: Isn't guidance saying no for now? No, no. You're taking the wrong approach to this. Repeat after me... the models are right where we want them at this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: No way is that storm staying suppressed with indices quickly rising plus seasonal trends. I'd be more alarmed if it wasn't suppressed this far out. However the same March problems would likely reappear with a non-arctic airmass in place. That's why this pattern would've been 20X better had it occurred a month ago. I was going to say, the dynamics don’t get much stronger than they were today and the coast still had major problems accumulating. Same thing happened here until 12:30 when all hell broke loose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: No, no. You're taking the wrong approach to this. Repeat after me... the models are right where we want them at this time frame. Haha, you are aabsolutely right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: If we get the storm on Monday and I believe we will, it certainly looks to be much stronger then today's and most likely another slow mover as well. Key issue for people in the city will again be the BL temps. Screwed by two storms in a row here with heavy snow falling but little accumulation (at least there were a few with today's storm vs 0 last week). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 This STORM will absolutely happen , zero doubt in my mind confidence is high!!!! How do I know ? My inlaws are coming from Florida and EVERYTIME they come it snows !!!! They have a way better margin of error than any model !!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: I was going to say, the dynamics don’t get much stronger than they were today and the coast still had major problems accumulating. Same thing happened here until 12:30 when all hell broke loose. I think even the coast is okay as long as you're not in the city. I did just fine in the suburbs and I'm pretty close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Call me nuts, but I almost don't mind this being so far east 4 days out as long as another model like the GFs has it coming up the coast! We all know the seasonal trend is west, and the current pattern also works for us.I am thinking this is our last chance for something good. I would love to take advantage of the major blocking one more time, but this time to get NYC in on it without the threat of rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I think even the coast is okay as long as you're not in the city. I did just fine in the suburbs and I'm pretty close to the coast. Yea UHI was a killer. You really need an anomalously cold air mass that keeps temps at or below freezing for snow to accumulate to its potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 33 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I think even the coast is okay as long as you're not in the city. I did just fine in the suburbs and I'm pretty close to the coast. Drive from exit 10 to exit 11 on the NJTP and you will see a huge difference. A ten minute drive if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I was going to say, the dynamics don’t get much stronger than they were today and the coast still had major problems accumulating. Same thing happened here until 12:30 when all hell broke loose.Honestly, Smithtown and points east in the north shore were hit pretty hard (I'm not sure about the rest of the area, I can only account for where I was). This storm was just a bit too close to the coast, for this time of year. Had the main SLP been the one which took over later (near bm) and not the one right next to the coast, NYC and LI would have been absolutely rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Honestly, Smithtown and points east in the north shore were hit pretty hard (I'm not sure about the rest of the area, I can only account for where I was). This storm was just a bit too close to the coast, for this time of year. Had the main SLP been the one which took over later (near bm) and not the one right next to the coast, NYC and LI would have been absolutely rocked. The warm mid level air got nowhere close to here. We had good rates here for an hour maybe. A problem might have been that the low got going too late, meaning there wasn’t a well developed CCB and the WAA driven snow had plenty of dry patches. The snow I had from 1-4pm would come down hard for 20 minutes to just dry up again in between cells. But this storm in general just seemed to be very banded, more so than normal. It wasn’t a problem of “the coast just can’t accumulate in March”. We accumulated fine when there was actually decent rates coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 00z GFS keeps the Monday storm right where we want her at this point. Looking good. Now we need some other models to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 We've had plenty of Marches with arctic air, the problem was often the storm track. This time it's the opposite, the storm tracks are great but the airmasses are marginal. The SSW that led to the blocking happened too late in the season for coastal areas. Mondays storm looks like a mix between the last two coastals. If you got hammered with today's storm, you'll do it again. For everyone else it'll be another battle that you're probably gonna lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We've had plenty of Marches with arctic air, the problem was often the storm track. This time it's the opposite, the storm tracks are great but the airmasses are marginal. The SSW that led to the blocking happened too late in the season for coastal areas. Mondays storm looks like a mix between the last two coastals. If you got hammered with today's storm, you'll do it again. For everyone else it'll be another battle that you're probably gonna lose. If most of it happens at night then we have a chance. I like this track better than the tracks of the other two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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