allgame830 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 16 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Wow gfs 06z run has us under snow and some mixed precipitation for 36 hours straight. Close to a foot of snow for nyc 36 hours and only a foot... seems like a lot of light to moderate snowfall rates... we need some consolidation of this into one big storm so we can get those accumulations for the NYC proper. Hopefully a lot of would come during the two night time periods. Something we need to focus on on starting Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, allgame830 said: 36 hours and only a foot... seems like a lot of light to moderate snowfall rates... we need some consolidation of this into one big storm so we can get those accumulations for the NYC proper. Hopefully a lot of would come during the two night time periods. Something we need to focus on on starting Monday. It snowed moderately here at night last week and didn’t stuck to pavement at 33-34 degrees. We need temps on the 20’s and then even the lighter stuff will stick. As far as getting a lot in NYC proper is concerned, you won’t find many storms of 6” or more for NYC after March 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: They hardly ever come to fruition so I wouldn't bank on it just yet; some long duration storms we have had have mixed a lot too, even in mi-winter, so you can expect no less in March. Yeah our biggest long duration storms have mixed- two that I remember right off the top were Feb 1920 and Feb 1961 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Put this out yesterday evening as my first best guess for Tues/Wed’s storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It snowed moderately here at night last week and didn’t stuck to pavement at 33-34 degrees. We need temps on the 20’s and then even the lighter stuff will stick. As far as getting a lot in NYC proper is concerned, you won’t find many storms of 6” or more for NYC after March 15th. I have been flogged mercilessly for pointing this out; but I have lived in the area for 55 years. March 92 is the only time as an adult I remember getting two storms in late March, one was just under 5 and the other might have been more, but both mixed to plain rain. But it was out biggest of the season IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: I have been flogged mercilessly for pointing this out; but I have lived in the area for 55 years. March 92 is the only time as an adult I remember getting two storms in late March, one was just under 5 and the other might have been more, but both mixed to plain rain. But it was out biggest of the season IIRC. Second one was colder at night and all snow here and dropped 3-5 though 5-8 was expected First one dropped 6" in NYC for the first 6" storm in years but was mixed down here and only 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Long duration events in March equal 0 in terms of accumulation. We would need very heavy rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It snowed moderately here at night last week and didn’t stuck to pavement at 33-34 degrees. We need temps on the 20’s and then even the lighter stuff will stick. As far as getting a lot in NYC proper is concerned, you won’t find many storms of 6” or more for NYC after March 15th. 5 minutes ago, snow1 said: Long duration events in March equal 0 in terms of accumulation. We would need very heavy rates Agree on both and that was point I was trying to make @NJwx85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, snow1 said: Long duration events in March equal 0 in terms of accumulation. We would need very heavy rates This will feature 2 plus inches of LE over 24 + hour period from DC to Boston with DPs in the low 20s. And if that happens you will be ecstatic. This is not some weak LE long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Again the JP with this will go from just N of DC just W of NYC then NE towards Boston. But the coast will do fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 The NYC snowfall issues in late March bother me from a discussion perspective. The same applies for I95. Late March is an issue for city centers and those who live within 1 mile of the coastline. Everyone else is in the game if the rates are decent and its overnight. Many members of this forum are not in the above areas, so a lot are still in line for a potential moderate to major event. And for the immediate coast, Bridgeport which ALWAYS under reports reported 5.5 inches in the last storm at 35 degrees in the middle of the daytime with the measurement taken at an airport which is a penninsula in the sound, so SOUTH of many coastline beaches. If that can happen NYC outside of times square can accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, snow1 said: Long duration events in March equal 0 in terms of accumulation. We would need very heavy rates That’s not necessarily true. Depends on a lot of factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 I believe even 96 had some mixing, and that was with a true arctic airmass locked in over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 NYC April 1982, April 19th 1983 and April 2003 or 04 Persistence overcame resistance and cement and asphalt were covered nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 28 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Put this out yesterday evening as my first best guess for Tues/Wed’s storm: Thanks Jay. Bridgeport which always under reports had 5.5 in the last storm with temps at 35. Heavy rates of course. Could this not be an all snow event for coastal CT as well? I am 1 town inland from the coast and received 9.5 in the last storm. Coastal CT never changed over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 37 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Put this out yesterday evening as my first best guess for Tues/Wed’s storm: Mostly rain with surface temps cold ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 I have no dog in this fight as I’m not in the city and I agree with snow88. I think many here are using a recency bias and are fun shy but there are many factors that have to do with whether snow will stick on the streets. If you have snowfall rates of close to an inch an hour in this coming storm I think the city will be fine. Ground is certainly cold right now. I think it’s a very flawed argument while climo needs to be taken into affect it is certainly not the end all be all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 32 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Mostly rain with surface temps cold ? Even on the Euro, surface temps are forecasted to be in the mid-upper 30's for the coast while precip is falling. The freezing line gets hung up over NE NJ. Even if that is say 2-3 degrees warmer than reality, you're still looking at 33-34 for NYC with precip falling during the day, and rates don't exactly look impressive at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 The necessary ingredients for snow to stick during the day in NYC during late March are temp and snowfall rates. The last time this happened was March 20th, 2015. Temperatures need to drop to at least the low 30's during the day with heavy snowfall rates. Get those two together and the snow sticks. NYC hourly observations for March 20th, 2015 snowstorm where 4.5" accumulated https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KNYC/2015/3/20/DailyHistory.html?req_city=New+York&req_state=NY&req_statename=New+York&reqdb.zip=10001&reqdb.magic=7&reqdb.wmo=99999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 This doesn't account for melting, which as we saw last week makes a major difference with the final result. You're not going to get intense banding with a system like this either. You can see here that even during the heart of the precip on the GFS, surface temps are above freezing from NYC, South and East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Even on the Euro, surface temps are forecasted to be in the mid-upper 30's for the coast while precip is falling. The freezing line gets hung up over NE NJ. Even if that is say 2-3 degrees warmer than reality, you're still looking at 33-34 for NYC with precip falling during the day, and rates don't exactly look impressive at the moment. We need the lows to consolidate Euro is very weak with the lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: This doesn't account for melting, which as we saw last week makes a major difference with the final result. You can see here that even during the heart of the precip on the GFS, surface temps are above freezing from NYC, South and East Temps would drop as the precip falls but like I said we need a strong storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: We need the lows to consolidate Euro is very weak with the lows No model shows this though, at least not yet. I know you watch Bernie Rayno's videos as do I, he spoke in length yesterday about needing to wait for the trough to consolidate, which might not happen at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: No offense but I believe you said the last storm would hit the I-95 corridor hard, which I also felt could happen but unfortunately didn't. How do you have so much confidence about this, there's a much better chance this turns out to be a cold rainstorm for most of the metro or white rain. There's very few snow events on record post March 15 for the coast and NYC. Areas just to the west got hit with a ton of snow. That was a good call for PB. The dry slot killed the coasts chances the last time around This time , you have the epo on your side which should funnel in cold air. The airmasd before the storm will be cold enough. Track and intensity are key here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: No model shows this though, at least not yet. I know you watch Bernie Rayno's videos as do I, he spoke in length yesterday about needing to wait for the trough to consolidate, which might not happen at all. That's big especially in March Weak lows will not do anything for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: This will feature 2 plus inches of LE over 24 + hour period from DC to Boston with DPs in the low 20s. And if that happens you will be ecstatic. This is not some weak LE long duration event. Agreed. We have seen strong consolidated areas of low pressure. These lows have had tremendous rates that easily overcome sun angle. the problem has been banding missing the city. Assuming 4th times is a charm and the city does not miss out on banding this time we should finally see bigger accumulations there this has the potential to be the coldest storm of the 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 It's just a very convoluted setup. Shortwave number one heads towards the lakes, hits the confluence from the ULL over Northern New England and then redevelops off the coast, but it's not the same as running into a blocking high which would be filtering in cold, arctic air. Then as the first low pulls away, it does allow for some cold air to wrap back around on the backside. The second trough closes off over the TN valley which sends another SLP towards the area. Eventually one last SLP forms and passes off the coast, however all of these SLP remain weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 15 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Agreed. We have seen strong consolidated areas of low pressure. These lows have had tremendous rates that easily overcome sun angle. the problem has been banding missing the city. Assuming 4th times is a charm and the city does not miss out on banding this time we should finally see bigger accumulations there this has the potential to be the coldest storm of the 4 The 1st storm was warm The last 2 storms could have brought alot of snow especially the 2nd one but the banding missed the area ( which was modeled to hit NYC ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 we just need to see how this will all play out over the next few days... id say at this point significant accumulation is definitely possible just NW of all of the big cities because of a few degree colder temps but I am not implying that the CITY and coast does not see at moderate snowfall. it certainly looks like a train of moisture that will be pretty persistent from late Tuesday night through mid day on Thursday. Timing has to be just right and hopefully with this 4th one it will be for the CITY and coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Mostly rain with surface temps cold ? I'm concerned about the 925 to 850 mb warmth. And I think surface temps will be above freezing. Obviously this is still 5 days out so this isn't a high confidence forecast at this point - just a "best guess". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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