sferic Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: After looking at some of the 12Z guidance that storm I was remembering that one too -- http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03.html I remember Craig Allen calling for 10-20 inches for NYC with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: After looking at some of the 12Z guidance that storm I was remembering that one too -- http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03.html Was a nice storm indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: After looking at some of the 12Z guidance that storm I was remembering that one too -- http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03.html Remember this one as a high schooler down near Baltimore. This was during a string of consecutive years when we would get a storm somewhere between Dec 5-10, like magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 On 3/7/2018 at 6:10 PM, SnoSki14 said: No way is that storm staying suppressed with indices quickly rising plus seasonal trends. I'd be more alarmed if it wasn't suppressed this far out. However the same March problems would likely reappear with a non-arctic airmass in place. That's why this pattern would've been 20X better had it occurred a month ago. this is march not december if this was february the last 3 storms would have dropped a lot of snow in nyc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Gfs is coming in colder and further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is coming in colder and further south Too much so for the first wave... will be interesting to see if it tries to get something together with that energetic dropping in behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 The second storm is beast at H5. Unfortunately it gets going a little late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 PDII was originally modeled to be two separate storms, similar to this, until it all ended up consolidating into one massive storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The second storm is beast at H5. Unfortunately it gets going a little late. 2nd storm still gave the coast snow I was very close though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 42 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: PDII was originally modeled to be two separate storms, similar to this, until it all ended up consolidating into one massive storm. I remember it looked like a handgun pointed directly at Maryland, streaming moisture. Took so long to crank up the coast but when it did it demolished all of I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 After next week's wintry potential, do long range models still show wintry potential or do we enter Spring for real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: PDII was originally modeled to be two separate storms, similar to this, until it all ended up consolidating into one massive storm. After looking at the GFS... Geez next week has massive potential... I am trying to control my expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, allgame830 said: After looking at the GFS... Geez next week has massive potential... I am trying to control my expectations. No expectations for me until there is several inches on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 41 minutes ago, sferic said: No expectations for me until there is several inches on the ground. Ditto. Been seriously screwed over last few storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 4 hours ago, NJwx85 said: It can be done, but it complicates things. need very heavy rates and/or night time events at this late date. (unless we have bitter cold air and winds but I don't see that anywhere.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: need very heavy rates and/or night time events at this late date. (unless we have bitter cold air and winds but I don't see that anywhere.) The models have very cold air for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The models have very cold air for this time of the year. Ant, cold air in March won’t be enough we need good timing and rates you should know better.. but this is the best airmass of the 4 yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 hour ago, allgame830 said: Ant, cold air in March won’t be enough we need good timing and rates you should know better.. but this is the best airmass of the 4 yes I agree Gfs is a snowy run Strung out but the 2nd low takes over as the main low and crawls and snows itself out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Hope someone's up for a Euro PBP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Hope someone's up for a Euro PBP I will be until 3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: I will be until 3am 3am? Damn you is a feen my cuz!Feen. By the way you Albanian or Italian? Also just woke up for bathroom, gfs looks very good kinda concerned my favorite model cmc isn’t showing something like it. I’d be more interested in seeing the ukmet than the euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 00z GFS brings snow for NYC Metro for this one, as she stalls out off the coast. Could #4 be the one for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: 3am? Damn you is a feen my cuz!Feen. By the way you Albanian or Italian? Also just woke up for bathroom, gfs looks very good kinda concerned my favorite model cmc isn’t showing something like it. I’d be more interested in seeing the ukmet than the euro! Italian I'm at work right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Euro anyone ? Thoughts ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 Wow gfs 06z run has us under snow and some mixed precipitation for 36 hours straight. Close to a foot of snow for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 23 hours ago, NJwx85 said: I prefaced my original post on the topic by saying that Miller B’s aren’t usually as exciting as Miller A’s, and yes I agree that ones that develop near OBX are better. Yes the Superstorm was a Miller A, as was Boxing Day, as was some of the storms this year. They drop crazy amounts of snow over a narrow area. My favorite storms are the ones with a large area of overrunning that fights an arctic airmass. So those should be the early developing Miller B's that we mentioned. Going from the 80s, my favorites are Feb 83, Jan 96, PD2 and Jan 2016. Are those the early developing Miller B's we've been talking about? Can long duration storms be of either type with equivalent frequency? Someone said earlier that Miller B's only drop snow for about 12 hours- he must have been talking about the late developing ones that hit E NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Wow gfs 06z run has us under snow and some mixed precipitation for 36 hours straight. Close to a foot of snow for nyc Wow haven't had a long duration storm in awhile. Looks like DC gets the goods finally too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 18 hours ago, JetsPens87 said: That’s okay though many of our big storms have come on the heels of dip in the NAO as it heads back towards neutral or positive. Including PD2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 6 hours ago, Meteoropoulos said: 00z GFS brings snow for NYC Metro for this one, as she stalls out off the coast. Could #4 be the one for NYC? I'd be fringed again on that one anyway. Bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, Paragon said: Wow haven't had a long duration storm in awhile. Looks like DC gets the goods finally too. They hardly ever come to fruition so I wouldn't bank on it just yet; some long duration storms we have had have mixed a lot too, even in mi-winter, so you can expect no less in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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