March 2018 Model Discussion

[Wetbulbs88]

4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Interesting website that lays out all the possible storm track types

http://www.glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/stormtypes.htm

 

Every time someone writes about '96 it's different -- Miller A, B, hybrid. What was it?  

[Wetbulbs88]

7 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Every time someone writes about '96 it's different -- Miller A, B, hybrid. What was it?  

This site contradicts itself about '96 on the same page. Frustrating. 

Great link though. 

[weatherpruf]

50 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

...really? 

Same here in NJ. People just don't believe it when we tell them that, ummm, it really isn't snowing much here.....and it has been like that for most of the big storms since Jan 2016. In fact, with the exception of Monmouth CTy, the storms this year have greatly resembled those of most of the 80's....3-6 with other areas getting more, sometimes lots more. But really, it doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. If I wanted snow all the time I could move to Maine. Or Buffalo.

[NJwx85]

57 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

He's referring to his totals from each storm. 0", 4", and 1"

Ah, that totally flew right over my head, my bad.

[dmillz25]

4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Ah, that totally flew right over my head, my bad.

Ant and I live in the same borough but he’s southern bk and I’m northern bk and sometimes I see even a 2” snow difference between us

[WeatherFeen2000]

Models look good for next weeks coastal. My favorite model; canadian is a mecs gfs has two storm kinda interesting but less snow cause they’re kinda strung out and euro has 3-6 inches areawide by next Wednesday I hope we get destroyed with at least a foot but it’s hard for it to snow in nyc cause it’s literally a hell hole

[USCG RS]

I appreciate it, I’ll try and post more for this upcoming

Yeah, have not seen you in a while. How you been?

[USCG RS]

EPS has been a bit more reliable on the indices lately so I’m giving it a little more weight. This version of GEFS agrees. That said, the lingering blockiness can’t be ignored. The transition of seasons and shorter wavelengths can very much lead to different outcomes than we’re used to in the dead of winter.

Is there any literature I can read up on wavelengths with regards to teleconnections? I still am yet to find d anything substantial on this topic.

[Paragon]

12 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

No, did you not read what I said?

I prefer miller B's. Normally you can get a good amount of WAA snows out ahead of the developing coastal, and if you're lucky you can get hit by both parts of the storm. With a miller A you're normally talking about an intense, but narrow area of heavy snow.

Yeah but we want early developing miller b's that develop off the carolinas not these later developing types that only new england cashes in on.

 

Wasn't March 1993 a Miller A though?

There's a certain fascination with long track coastals- just like long track hurricanes

[NJwx85]

2 hours ago, Paragon said:

Yeah but we want early developing miller b's that develop off the carolinas not these later developing types that only new england cashes in on.

 

Wasn't March 1993 a Miller A though?

There's a certain fascination with long track coastals- just like long track hurricanes

I prefaced my original post on the topic by saying that Miller B’s aren’t usually as exciting as Miller A’s, and yes I agree that ones that develop near OBX are better. Yes the Superstorm was a Miller A, as was Boxing Day, as was some of the storms this year. They drop crazy amounts of snow over a narrow area.

[allgame830]

22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I prefaced my original post on the topic by saying that Miller B’s aren’t usually as exciting as Miller A’s, and yes I agree that ones that develop near OBX are better. Yes the Superstorm was a Miller A, as was Boxing Day, as was some of the storms this year. They drop crazy amounts of snow over a narrow area.

Yea Miller B’s aren’t as exciting and not the power house that a Miller A can be but they tend to have a wider area of snowfall. Like you said yesterday the prefer would be a Miller B for a higher confidence in snowfall because of opportunity for WAA snows.

BTW what are you currently sitting at for total snowfall this winter? I have 49” with the .75” last night.

[Stormlover74]

Gfs has back to back coastal lows, Tuesday and Wednesday, but mostly rain. Euro has snow Wednesday and Canadian blasts us with snow Tuesday

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, allgame830 said:

Yea Miller B’s aren’t as exciting and not the power house that a Miller A can be but they tend to have a wider area of snowfall. Like you said yesterday the prefer would be a Miller B for a higher confidence in snowfall because of opportunity for WAA snows.

BTW what are you currently sitting at for total snowfall this winter? I have 49” with the .75” last night.

I didn't keep an exact total but I am around 40"

For the record, the blizzard of 96 was an extreme case of a miller B where the upper level low closed off near St. Louis. The primary never made it Northeast of Tennessee thanks to the extreme block over Northern New England. A secondary low then formed over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and moved Northward along the coast. The track was tucked in until reaching the NJ coast, when the parent 500mb low finally moved offshore. I believe the deepest the SLP ever reached was 992mb.

 

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs has back to back coastal lows, Tuesday and Wednesday, but mostly rain. Euro has snow Wednesday and Canadian blasts us with snow Tuesday

The strongest blocking is behind system number one. That's the better storm if we can get the first one out of the way fast enough.

[allgame830]

6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The strongest blocking is behind system number one. That's the better storm if we can get the first one out of the way fast enough.

Are you speaking of the one for the 24/25?

Furthermore, you still like the chances of the Monday into Tuesday storm?

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Are you speaking of the one for the 24/25?

Furthermore, you still like the chances of the Monday into Tuesday storm?

The gfs has separate storms on the 20th and 21st

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

The gfs has separate storms on the 20th and 21st

Oh gotcha... I guess I missed that.  So then I guess that is what NJ is referring too.

[allgame830]

well... the PHI forum has dropped the hammer and has started a thread for 3/20-3/21... a little early dont't ya think... i was thinking tomorrow we should start one.  Who agrees??

[yankeex777]

Nope, go bold.  Start it now.

[Dan76]

Kiss of death.

[Dan76]

For this ?

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

IF the thread IS started now, don't screw it up as we did last time and lets call it a fish storm or a bust right from the gitgo, that monkeying around too little too late from Rjay is what did us in last time. lol

[allgame830]

12 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

For this ?

 

That will change... no way that will verify with a -NAO still in place and the block to the north .

[Stormlover74]

Wait til at least Saturday

[mikem81]

Let’s start with title “OTS rainstorm”

[Rjay]

3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

I didn't keep an exact total but I am around 40"

For the record, the blizzard of 96 was an extreme case of a miller B where the upper level low closed off near St. Louis. The primary never made it Northeast of Tennessee thanks to the extreme block over Northern New England. A secondary low then formed over the Northern Gulf of Mexico and moved Northward along the coast. The track was tucked in until reaching the NJ coast, when the parent 500mb low finally moved offshore. I believe the deepest the SLP ever reached was 992mb.

 

1996 was a Miller C.  I think it eventually got down to 980mb.  

[weatherbear5]

Man, you can tell how difficult this storm is going to be to forecast. The 500mb map just  looks like someone just spilled yellow, orange, and black paint all over it. There's too many significant players to count and try to nail down their exact positions.

12z GFS exhibits a better, more typical split flow which would support high pressure over southern Canada and would bottle up the flow... looks like a slow mover on the GFS, though I'd prefer that high to be a bit further south

[MJO812]

Gfs is further south with next week's storm. It's also colder.

[mikem81]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs is further south with next week's storm. It's also colder.

It also sits off the SNJ coast for a day or so

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

It also sits off the SNJ coast for a day or so

Stalls

Epo is going negative along with a dip in the nao

Good times