NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 If the models "lose" this storm it will likely be because the block ends up either too strong or non-existent. Hard to tell from the maps available, but it looks like the 12z UKMET supports the idea of a primary into the Ohio Valley with redevelopment offshore. You can see here the baginess in the isobars off the mid-atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 The 12z GEFS mean looks pretty good. 0.50"+ QPF over the entire region for the Monday night to Wednesday morning time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 It would seem like we'd have a decent shot at a front end thump before mixing or changing over takes place. Unlike the last storms where we needed cold air to work in we'll already have it, though it will be retreating. Then if the coastal takes over far enough south cold air would wrap back into the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 12z Euro should show a good storm. Primary already dying off in the Ohio Valley and secondary taking over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 12z German Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Really nice phase on the Euro, and strongly negatively tilted trough. You can see how it bends the heights back over New England and SE Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Euro has a nice front end dump followed by a change over to freezing rain for the interior, followed by dry slot. Just need that SLP a bit further East. All in all, great trends today on the 12z guidance. My confidence is increasing for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Need that primary to die out faster and we should be in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 That front end thump does actually make some sense. This is going to be another one of those that changes on every operational run. Almost all the energy hangs out off the coast of AK/BC/PacNW until Sat night or Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Not a bad place to be. Huge hit for the interior and especially for Upstate NY. Plenty of days left to sort out the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Does this remind anyone of Feb 2003, Miller B, approaching from the west, cold air in place, redevelops off the coast, slow mover, perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: That front end thump does actually make some sense. This is going to be another one of those that changes on every operational run. Almost all the energy hangs out off the coast of AK/BC/PacNW until Sat night or Sunday. WAA snows before the coastal takes over. I don't really buy the lack of precip with a sub 1000mb sitting in that spot south of LI. Even with the ULL making it to Buffalo, the SLP should be able to start cranking. To me this has long duration WAA snows over to a slow moving coastal written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Does this remind anyone of Feb 2003, Miller B, approaching from the west, cold air in place, redevelops off the coast, slow mover, perhaps? No. It'll be almost April also this will be stronger. PDII was like 1010mb iirc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: Does this remind anyone of Feb 2003, Miller B, approaching from the west, cold air in place, redevelops off the coast, slow mover, perhaps? Yes except we had a true arctic injection that we won't see with this storm. But the premise is accurate from a H5 perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 With the AO and NAO progged to be going positive at the time of this storm, wouldnt a warmer Buffalo track be more correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 14, 2018 Author Share Posted March 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yes except we had a true arctic injection that we won't see with this storm. But the premise is accurate from a H5 perspective. It’ll be colder than any of the storms we had this month though. NYC is just jinxed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: With the AO and NAO progged to be going positive at the time of this storm, wouldnt a warmer Buffalo track be more correct? No because we have the block in place still but slowly lifting out which makes the difference. it comes down to the timing of the block departing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: It’ll be colder than any of the storms we had this month though. NYC is just jinxed Incorrect not jinxed just wrong time of the winter.... Jan/Feb yes all three would of delivered but not in March. Mayb this one will since 3 times is a charm didn't work out so well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 What are you guys looking at? The NAO is forecasted to plummet again. That's the only reason why I'm excited about this storm. It corrects back positive right afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: It’ll be colder than any of the storms we had this month though. NYC is just jinxed NYC isn't jinxed. Getting accumulating snows outside of the higher elevations in March is a tall task. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: It’ll be colder than any of the storms we had this month though. NYC is just jinxed We don’t know that yet. Way too early to make predictions other than that there’ll likely be a storm. The confluence northeast of it could ease and it could trend into an inland runner. Good luck to whoever. After the last three disasters here, I’m done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 14, 2018 Author Share Posted March 14, 2018 I know about March it’s rwally hard to get accumulations and it needs to be really colder than 33-34. Temperatures never dropped below 33 during all these storms believe me if it went to 32 it would have accumulated no problem. City is a hard task cause it’s a hell hole! Literally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: What are you guys looking at? The NAO is forecasted to plummet again. That's the only reason why I'm excited about this storm. It corrects back positive right afterwards. Looking at GEFS. EPS is coming put now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 this sure doesn't look like a +NAO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 A lot of time to figure this one out. At least there will be a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Looking at GEFS. EPS is coming put now. That's not a positive NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 45 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Incorrect not jinxed just wrong time of the winter.... Jan/Feb yes all three would of delivered but not in March. Mayb this one will since 3 times is a charm didn't work out so well. NYC still would have come up short in Jan/Feb. We were caught in an area of subsidence for virtually the entire duration of the 2nd storm (it was a flizzard) and we might have cashed in a bit more for the 3rd storm because of that one band that sat for a few hours but the main show was well east. The 1st storm was a lot of White Rain, that could have been the big one for NYC had it come a month earlier. Hopefully we can finally cash in for this next storm but the odds are majorly stacked against us, everything will have to come together perfectly. It looks like it will be a big storm either way so should be fun to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Both the EPS and GEPS are indicating a bit of suppressed track on the 12z run, indicative of stronger ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 29 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: I know about March it’s rwally hard to get accumulations and it needs to be really colder than 33-34. Temperatures never dropped below 33 during all these storms believe me if it went to 32 it would have accumulated no problem. City is a hard task cause it’s a hell hole! Literally A lot of time with these storms it comes down to luck. That's why I prefer Miller B's over Miller A's. Sure it can be exciting if you happen to get under an intense CCB, but the margin for error is very small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvn139 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: A lot of time with these storms it comes down to luck. That's why I prefer Miller B's over Miller A's. Sure it can be exciting if you happen to get under an intense CCB, but the margin for error is very small. I'm assuming you meant that you prefer Miller A's to Miller B's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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