North and West Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 56 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The good news is that we probably won't need to worry about this storm being too far East unless the block is so strong that it keeps things suppressed. Right now I don't see that happening at all. You can see the various operational runs struggling with when to kill off that primary low in the Ohio Valley, which is why we need that block. The upside of this storm is very high IMO. Too early to tell on timeframe? (I know it's way out; just supposed to fly back from Boston at 3 on Tuesday Afternoon ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Airmass won’t matter with a 700 low over Manhattan closing off over SNE I understand that part we gotta have to our southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 16 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Isn’t that airmass colder than the last 3? Yes the airmass will be colder leading up to it... only one above normal day and that would be Sunday but that might even fall short and then back to much colder Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 15 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Isn’t that airmass colder than the last 3? the fri-sat air mass is colder but it rots by monday-tuesday. the high position looks to be near hudson bay for the tuesday storm and the pna drops, so our SE/Atlantic ridge would probably do its dirty work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 This could very well be OTS on the 12Z. This is 5-6 days away. Looking at the model runs is just going to be mentally draining at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: the fri-sat air mass is colder but it rots by monday-tuesday. the high position looks to be near hudson bay for the tuesday storm and the pna drops, so our SE/Atlantic ridge would probably do its dirty work. I have 39/28 and 36/31 how would that categorize rotting of the cold air... yes definitely not like Friday into Saturday but still cold. Obviously the CITY would be a different story... I just hope that it doesn't become an inland threat again because the NYC area can't take a 4 disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Just now, mikem81 said: This could very well be OTS on the 12Z. This is 5-6 days away. Looking at the model runs is just going to be mentally draining at this point. It shouldn't be mentally draining... we got about what maybe 3 weeks tops here for something significant so why not go all in and if it doesn't work out then so be it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I have 39/28 and 36/31 how would that categorize rotting of the cold air... yes definitely not like Friday into Saturday but still cold. Obviously the CITY would be a different story... I just hope that it doesn't become an inland threat again because the NYC area can't take a 4 disappointment. 850 anomalies absolutely ease up, as do 2m temps on everything I'm seeing. Depending on storm track and given snow cover up north, there is definitely the potential for freezing rain near you. Way too early to get this cute though. I'm just saying the overall pattern and current ensembles suggest heavy snow would likely be farther N and NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 24 minutes ago, mikem81 said: This could very well be OTS on the 12Z. This is 5-6 days away. Looking at the model runs is just going to be mentally draining at this point. Chances of that are extremely low. This isn't a Miller A, its more of a SWFE/Miller B. The chances of rain on the coast are much higher than a miss E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, snywx said: Chances of that are extremely low. This isn't a Miller A, its more of a SWFE/Miller B. The chances of rain on the coast are much higher than a miss E. Agree that a warm scenario is a bigger risk than a suppressed one at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Agree that a warm scenario is a bigger risk than a suppressed one at this time. Yes that is what the EURO at 0z showed.... obviously with so many days away who knows what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 21 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 850 anomalies absolutely ease up, as do 2m temps on everything I'm seeing. Depending on storm track and given snow cover up north, there is definitely the potential for freezing rain near you. Way too early to get this cute though. I'm just saying the overall pattern and current ensembles suggest heavy snow would likely be farther N and NE. Ahhhh please no freezing rain.... I rather 10 inches of sleet LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 38 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I have 39/28 and 36/31 how would that categorize rotting of the cold air... yes definitely not like Friday into Saturday but still cold. Obviously the CITY would be a different story... I just hope that it doesn't become an inland threat again because the NYC area can't take a 4 disappointment. The only segment of the population in the city and immediate 'burbs that would be disappointed in a wet rather than white storm are the folks here. Any time it doesn't snow down there people are happy. 7 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Ahhhh please no freezing rain.... I rather 10 inches of sleet LOL At least sleet just bounces off the trees and power lines rather than bringing them down like freezing rain and heavy wet snow. My shoveling self says NO to 10" of sleet 30 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 850 anomalies absolutely ease up, as do 2m temps on everything I'm seeing. Depending on storm track and given snow cover up north, there is definitely the potential for freezing rain near you. Way too early to get this cute though. I'm just saying the overall pattern and current ensembles suggest heavy snow would likely be farther N and NE. It sounds like you're leaning towards the warmer solution a couple of posters above are discussing, is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, gravitylover said: The only segment of the population in the city and immediate 'burbs that would be disappointed in a wet rather than white storm are the folks here. Any time it doesn't snow down there people are happy. At least sleet just bounces off the trees and power lines rather than bringing them down like freezing rain and heavy wet snow. My shoveling self says NO to 10" of sleet It sounds like you're leaning towards the warmer solution a couple of posters above are discussing, is that right? oh 10 inches was an exaggeration LOL (at least sleet accumulates). I would never want to shovel 10 inches of sleet and its probably that theoretically possible. I understand purdue's point this time of the year that would be climate supported... gotta see how strong that block is going to be and this could turn into another nailbitter especially along the coast and NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Ahhhh please no freezing rain.... I rather 10 inches of sleet LOLCorrect my unedumecated self, but isn't 10" of sleet even worse than 10" of snow because of what it'd do to windows, windshields, and accidents it'd cause from the mass false sense of security on the roads & highways..?Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, allgame830 said: oh 10 inches was an exaggeration LOL (at least sleet accumulates). I would never want to shovel 10 inches of sleet and its probably that theoretically possible. A couple of years ago we had a huge sleet storm to close out the season. I had never seen anything like it. I want to say that it was in that range. The next year the storm to start the season was about 5" of pure sleet. I was absolutely convinced that I hated climate change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, nycemt123 said: Correct my unedumecated self, but isn't 10" of sleet even worse than 10" of snow because of what it'd do to windows, windshields, and accidents it'd cause from the mass false sense of security on the roads & highways..? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Sleet not hail. That kind of damage is associated with hail but even that accumulates on the roads quickly and creates mayhem and sleet is like an instant disaster to travel in if the ground is even just a little bit warm when it starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 41 minutes ago, nycemt123 said: Correct my unedumecated self, but isn't 10" of sleet even worse than 10" of snow because of what it'd do to windows, windshields, and accidents it'd cause from the mass false sense of security on the roads & highways..? Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk I was not speaking in terms of snow but rather freezing rain versus sleet. Sleet is somewhat possible to drive on but freezing rain is damn near impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 And just like that, the 12z GFS has a tremendous storm signal at 150hrs. Some temp issues for sure, but that will change over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: And just like that, the 12z GFS has a tremendous storm signal at 150hrs. Some temp issues for sure, but that will change over time. The GFS has been very good at picking these storms out in the long range so this most definitely warrants a lot of attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 36 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I was not speaking in terms of snow but rather freezing rain versus sleet. Sleet is somewhat possible to drive on but freezing rain is damn near impossible. If the ground is cold it mostly rolls off the roads for a while until it just starts piling up. At that point you hope your car has enough power and the right tires to get through it. 4WD/AWD is pretty much necessary after ~2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 4 minutes ago, gravitylover said: If the ground is cold it mostly rolls off the roads for a while until it just starts piling up. At that point you hope your car has enough power and the right tires to get through it. 4WD/AWD is pretty much necessary after ~2". ya i have a medium sized SUV... Remember the Valentine's Day Sleetfest we had.. thank god that was sleet because freezing rain would of been disastrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: And just like that, the 12z GFS has a tremendous storm signal at 150hrs. Some temp issues for sure, but that will change over time. Same with the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: And just like that, the 12z GFS has a tremendous storm signal at 150hrs. Some temp issues for sure, but that will change over time. The Storm has been there the last few runs, just keeps jumping around. See 0Z and 6Z which were on both ends of the 12Z. 0Z was a great track for NYC metro and 6Z was all Rain. 12Z was in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: The Storm has been there the last few runs, just keeps jumping around. See 0Z and 6Z which were on both ends of the 12Z. 0Z was a great track for NYC metro and 6Z was all Rain. 12Z was in between Yes, I expect this flipping around will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yes, I expect this flipping around will continue. .... and then it will lose the storm in the 3-4 day range and take a major dump like always.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 CMC is a similar story. Looks like models are trying to figure out what to do with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 22 minutes ago, allgame830 said: .... and then it will lose the storm in the 3-4 day range and take a major dump like always.... the primary low track is over land into the ohio valley so I doubt it will lose the storm altogether. If anything it will want to send it to Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: the primary low track is over land into the ohio valley so I doubt it will lose the storm altogether. If anything it will want to send it to Buffalo agreed but anything is possible with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 12Z GFS looks pretty similar to the 00Z Euro last night - coastl hugger with mix/rain for 95/coast and lots of snow inland, while the CMC just looks weak with a decent track for snow north of about 276/195 in PA/NJ, but nowhere near as much precip (guessing it doesn't explode off the coast). I assume we're going to see models bounce around for a couple of days until it's clear which low to focus on and how the players and pattern "fit" together synoptically. Bottom line is the potential is huge, but the outcome will likely be in doubt until we're 2-3 days out (or later, lol). And keep in mind that the last 3 storms all three delivered 1-2 feet or more of snow somewhere not far away, even if not for the immediate 95 corridor, i.e., we were only 50 miles off in storm 1 and 60 miles off in storm 3 and came pretty close to a foot or more along 95 in storm 2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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