RU848789 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 5 hours ago, Snow88 said: Gfs, cmc and Euro show a snowstorm for the area next week. A major one on Tuesday - still a long way off, but unusual to get that strong of a signal 8 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Any update on this potential storm next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 1 hour ago, snow1 said: Any update on this potential storm next week? with DST we have to wait another hour for the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stu Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 On to the 20th!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 12Z GFS is way OTS, but don't worry, it has another storm for the 24th into the 25th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 First "threat" Second "threat" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12Z GFS is way OTS, but don't worry, it has another storm for the 24th into the 25th This is the first threat and its suppressed not OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 Just now, Stormlover74 said: This is the first threat and its suppressed not OTS I think the far majority of posters here would agree that a storm that exits hard right near OBX quantifies as OTS. It's not the same as a hurricane being OTS, which was never over land in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I think the far majority of posters here would agree that a storm that exits hard right near OBX quantifies as OTS. It's not the same as a hurricane being OTS, which was never over land in the first place. 6z brought accumulating snow within 20 miles of NYC. We've started threads for less than that Also here is the 12z ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 6z brought accumulating snow within 20 miles of NYC. We've started threads for less than that Also here is the 12z ggem Not for a storm that's 8+ days away. Talk to me over the weekend, if it's still there then we have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZeeTwentyFour Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 My weather app is forecasting a 24 hour event for Tuesday - Wednesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 No word on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, snow1 said: No word on the euro? EURO is suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: EURO is suppressed. That’s probably good news as most storms come NW with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, snow1 said: That’s probably good news as most storms come NW with time. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, snow1 said: That’s probably good news as most storms come NW with time. Last night's run was a huge hit so it'll probably go back and forth for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 12z EPS mean passes SE of the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 3 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Not for a storm that's 8+ days away. Talk to me over the weekend, if it's still there then we have something. It's supposed to start next Tuesday so that's 7 days away and the media is hyping it already. Let's see where we are at Sunday night. If you look at the Euro for the current storm from the same point out in time vs the upcoming storm at the same point in time, was the current storm further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 How’s the airmass? Pretty much have given up on accumulating snows in NYC in March-unless rates are really high or there an Arctic airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: How’s the airmass? Pretty much have given up on accumulating snows in NYC in March-unless rates are really high or there an Arctic airmass. Cold but right now suppressed. Looks like possible teens and 20s Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: How’s the airmass? Pretty much have given up on accumulating snows in NYC in March-unless rates are really high or there an Arctic airmass. Don't know if it's right, but the Euro op shows teens for temps in the area Tues morning. Dews in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Don't know if it's right, but the Euro op shows teens for temps in the area Tues morning. Dews in the single digits. ah now I know why April 1982 is being used as an analog. btw did you consider a short trip to Southampton to see their 20" of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 13, 2018 Share Posted March 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Paragon said: ah now I know why April 1982 is being used as an analog. btw did you consider a short trip to Southampton to see their 20" of snow? Nah, it's fine. I've spent some time in Buffalo. I've seen my share of deep snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 I'm surprised at the lack of discussion for next weeks storm after the 00z model runs. I'm on board with a major hit for early next week if the block can re-establish itself. Right now the EPS and GEFS indicate some blocking in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame which coincides with our latest threat. The key will be to get that ridge over the NW Atlantic stronger and further SW than shown here, which will build heights along the coast and setup a confluence zone over Northern New England. Then as that upper level system tries to undercut the ridge, it will turn into a slow moving miller B. We've already seen glimpses of this scenario on the various major models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'm surprised at the lack of discussion for next weeks storm after the 00z model runs. I'm on board with a major hit for early next week if the block can re-establish itself. Right now the EPS and GEFS indicate some blocking in the Tuesday-Thursday time frame which coincides with our latest threat. The key will be to get that ridge over the NW Atlantic stronger and further SW than shown here, which will build heights along the coast and setup a confluence zone over Northern New England. Then as that upper level system tries to undercut the ridge, it will turn into a slow moving miller B. We've already seen glimpses of this scenario on the various major models. 85 I think many are gun shy and licking they're wounds after yesterday went East. We both know that they will come around soon ,,,,,keep the updates coming guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: 85 I think many are gun shy and licking they're wounds after yesterday went East. We both know that they will come around soon ,,,,,keep the updates coming guys The good news is that we probably won't need to worry about this storm being too far East unless the block is so strong that it keeps things suppressed. Right now I don't see that happening at all. You can see the various operational runs struggling with when to kill off that primary low in the Ohio Valley, which is why we need that block. The upside of this storm is very high IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 Modeled split flows cause chaos in the 3+ range, I’d expect to see wild jumps between cutter/suppression till at least weekend... so que the run by freak outs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 ensembles and teleconnections suggest a rainy scenario for most of this sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: ensembles and teleconnections suggest a rainy scenario for most of this sub-forum. Isn’t that airmass colder than the last 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 14, 2018 Share Posted March 14, 2018 15 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Isn’t that airmass colder than the last 3? Airmass won’t matter with a 700 low over Manhattan closing off over SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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