PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 9 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: With a stale airmass, we're going to need this storm to hit at night or go full phase if we want widespread double digit numbers. Otherwise everyone on this forum will be wish casting where the CCB death band sets up. The UKMET deepens this 20 BM in 12 while passing our latitude This will CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 59 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Complete banter...no power since Wednesday at 3:30. 16" dumped on my house. Driveway is a disaster. What the RGEM just spit out, get's me excited and at the same time makes me sad, with the prospect of more wet snow on already weak trees and telephone poles. What's your JCP&L status? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 12 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: With a stale airmass, we're going to need this storm to hit at night or go full phase if we want widespread double digit numbers. Otherwise everyone on this forum will be wish casting where the CCB death band sets up. Agreed. This has SECS written all over it. I like the 4-8” call with a small chance of 8-12” for localized areas if everything goes right. Just speculation as of now, I think this has a great chance of producing a moderate snowfall for the I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Do not want to be in bullseye yet not until Sunday I-95 will not be bullseye 48hrs from now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Not too much work to do there. Looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 000 FXUS61 KOKX 092015 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 315 PM EST Fri Mar 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure remains nearly stationary over the Canadian Maritimes through Saturday. An Atlantic low may impact the area during the beginning of next week. A warming trend is then possible for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Stacked low settles across the Canadian Maritimes tonight. Fast moving vort pivots around the base of the trough overnight. A few snow showers or flurries linger into the evening, but drier air moves in as the night progresses, and any leftover lift ends. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are forecast, as westerly flow persists. Lows will range from the lower 30s to the middle 20s per model and mos blend. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Upper low remains stationary over the Canadian Maritimes through Saturday before moving east at night. Sfc high pressure builds to the north of downstream midwest trough. Dry weather continues, with gusty westerly flow turning NW in time. Temperatures rise to the lower to middle 40s during the day, and fall into the 20s or lower 30s at night under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The primary focus of the Long Term is the potential for another deep low to impact the area during the beginning of next week. Fair wx on Sun with the nbm used. The 12z model runs show a large amount of variability with the storm. However, they all indicate low pres will develop off the Carolina Coast Sun ngt into early Mon. From there, the storm will eventually deepen over the Atlc as an h5 low drops out of Canada. The ECMWF remains the guidance of choice for the evolution of the sys, with the basic track of the main sfc low supported by the GEM and GFS. The low is progged by the ECMWF to be down to 983mb about 215 miles e of the benchmark 12z Tue. So this looks to be another big one with just the track in question. The fcst track consensus is still too far e to provide a major impact to the cwa. However, it would not be surprising based on climo for the modeling and eventual track to trend wwd. As a result, pops were unchanged for Mon, and increased slightly to at least 30 percent for Tue. The large upr low spinning over the area on Wed would be conducive to the development of snow shwrs, so chances were added into the fcst. Warm 16c h85 air over the cntrl plains begins to spread ewd and modify on Thu. This change in the pattern should bring a warming trend into next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 24 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The UKMET deepens this 20 BM in 12 while passing our latitude This will CCB I said i didn't like this threat this morning and then the models came hundreds of miles west lol. I totally snowmaned this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Not too much work to do there. Looking good. Yup... we are looking a helluva a lot better than yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Selfish question from a backyard point-of-view: What is NNJ looking at for this? I'm asking because I lost in the ballpark of $150 in groceries in the past week from repeated power outages. I could go without an additional foot of snow. I'm also starting to worry about flooding if we a lot of snow this late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: I said i didn't like this threat this morning and then the models came hundreds of miles west lol. I totally snowmaned this storm. You know you've made it when you become a verb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 minute ago, North and West said: Selfish question from a backyard point-of-view: What is NNJ looking at for this? I'm asking because I lost in the ballpark of $150 in groceries in the past week from repeated power outages. I could go without an additional foot of snow. I'm also starting to worry about flooding if we a lot of snow this late in the season. As of now, 3-6” is likely. It’s too early to call though. By tomorrow morning we should have a much better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said: As of now, 3-6” is likely. It’s too early to call though. By tomorrow morning we should have a much better idea. Thanks. In addition to that, most schools (including those of my children) have been out since Wednesday. I hope they're back Monday. They're going to start taking away Spring Break; they might get close to 1993-1994 when we went to school on Saturday to make up the days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Thread started for this specific threat.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 There is too much disagreement to talk about amounts of any precip type. It's not even a slam dunk that it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 OPC 72hr surface cast http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml looks like this may be a nail biter ...down to the wire for the metro 978mb prog at 40N lets see if the new data ingest on the overnight shift, come west yet again I think that vibe is solid !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Why are some people talking about snowfall amounts at this stage? To early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Nam is ots on the latest run. But as pb said, let’s hope the American models catch on later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Love that west lean on the EPS members in this instance. That has value IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 37 minutes ago, North and West said: Thanks. In addition to that, most schools (including those of my children) have been out since Wednesday. I hope they're back Monday. They're going to start taking away Spring Break; they might get close to 1993-1994 when we went to school on Saturday to make up the days. By law they can't go beyond JUne 30th IIRC so you will make up days however, if there are extenuating circumstances beyond reason, sometimes days are not made up if there are none left after all breaks have been given up. This has nothing to do with kids' education it is strictly a matter of funding. When OK decided they didn't want to pay anymore for schools they just told some districts well go to a 4 day week. Teachers will have an extra day to get part time work. How considerate. We have an issue here with one school shut for a week for asbestos and then this weather. And we only had 4 inches and it caused chaos. So far we have been spared the worst but are now up to around 32 ins for the year and even small snowfalls are gonna cause more closures. Small being 4-8 these days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 hour ago, North and West said: What's your JCP&L status? Like Forky...March 14, 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 53 minutes ago, Doorman said: OPC 72hr surface cast http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml looks like this may be a nail biter ...down to the wire for the metro 978mb prog at 40N lets see if the new data ingest on the overnight shift, come west yet again I think that vibe is solid !!!! I think the US models see it 12z tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 18z GFS is a huge improvement, holding a lot of energy back and the trough goes more negative. Our block retreats eastward faster and more energy can pull north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Or 18z There you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Guys we have a thread for this storm already POST THERE!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 11 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Or 18z There you go PB as someone else said I give you props for being on this one for a while but the overnight guidance sure doesn't look favorable. Big change from yesterdays favorable shifts,,,,,I guess we wait n see what the morning guidance says . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 3 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said: PB as someone else said I give you props for being on this one for a while but the overnight guidance sure doesn't look favorable. Big change from yesterdays favorable shifts,,,,,I guess we wait n see what the morning guidance says . The UKMET and RGEM continue to show this and the 6z GEFS brings the .5 line very close to the coast Again this one favors the coast , with a -EPO , these like to follow run on the coastal front and find their way to the BM In the past they come W very late , so we will see. The EPS has 2 clusters one up towards 70 and the other is just weak and OTS But weak and OTS doesn't match the ridge axis thru Boise My idea only has small support but then again I don't forecast using model to model variance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 38 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The UKMET and RGEM continue to show this and the 6z GEFS brings the .5 line very close to the coast Again this one favors the coast , with a -EPO , these like to follow run on the coastal front and find their way to the BM In the past they come W very late , so we will see. The EPS has 2 clusters one up towards 70 and the other is just weak and OTS But weak and OTS doesn't match the ridge axis thru Boise My idea only has small support but then again I don't forecast using model to model variance Thank you for the reply PB. There is much I need to learn about the science and the dynamics of this one are just ridiculous . So when even long time Mets ( I am talking about EVERYONE in general not you ) are having trouble figuring things out it gives me hope lol. Lets see what todays models and guidance show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Pb, any latest thoughts based on the 18z trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Gfs, cmc and Euro show a snowstorm for the area next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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