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Severe potential 2/24


rolltide_130

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From the Storm Prediction Center in their latest Mesoscale Discussion...

   LLJ has
   strengthened across the Arklatex and shear profiles remain very
   favorable for supercells and potential tornadoes. While the warm
   front should continue to focus convection, especially just ahead of
   the surface low, robust convection should increase south of the low
   along the surging cold front over the next few hours. Damaging winds
   will become increasingly likely with surging line segments that
   mature along the cold front. Otherwise, tornado threat continues,
   especially with supercells.
 

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2 minutes ago, JPOracle said:

Adairville, KY had a EF3 or something near that strength of the tornado go through town, Damage is pretty bad

We won't know the rating until the NWS surveys tomorrow. And I assume the image you used as reference is the one I'm gonna put below. In which case there's not nearly enough information available to accurately estimate the tornado's intensity. Sometimes it can be done if you have multiple good images and a before and after, but one image from far away doesn't give enough info. Basically you need to know the structural integrity of the structure before hand and compare it to damage done afterwards. If either of those is lacking, don't guess the EF rating. In fact, some people don't like people guessing EF ratings at all.


5e1ab77a5dd6f8545b86cdb03a8e95c8.jpg

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED   TORNADO WARNING   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN   703 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018     THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A     * TORNADO WARNING FOR...   NORTHWESTERN WEAKLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...   NORTHEASTERN OBION COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...     * UNTIL 745 PM CST     * AT 703 PM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO   WAS LOCATED OVER UNION CITY, MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.     THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!     HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.     SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.     IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS   MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE   HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,   BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE   DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.     * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...   UNION CITY AROUND 710 PM CST.   FULTON AND SOUTH FULTON AROUND 745 PM CST.  

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
724 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018  
  
TNC017-053-183-250200-  
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-180225T0200Z/  
WEAKLEY TN-GIBSON TN-CARROLL TN-  
724 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR SOUTHERN  
WEAKLEY...CENTRAL GIBSON AND NORTHWESTERN CARROLL COUNTIES...  
          
AT 724 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BRADFORD, OR NEAR  
TRENTON, MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE   
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS   
         LIKELY.   
  
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
MCKENZIE, TRENTON, DRESDEN, DYER, GREENFIELD, GLEASON, RUTHERFORD,  
BRADFORD, ATWOOD, TREZEVANT, MCLEMORESVILLE, SANDHILL, TUCKERS  
CORNER, GRIZZARD, GOOD LUCK, CADES, CURRIE, STAFFORDS STORE, VAUGHNS  
GROVE AND BARRONS CORNER.  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
730 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2018  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHEASTERN WEAKLEY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...  
  NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE...  
  
* UNTIL 800 PM CST  
      
* AT 729 PM CST, A TORNADO PRODUCING STORM WAS LOCATED OVER   
  PALMERSVILLE, OR 16 MILES NORTHEAST OF MARTIN, MOVING EAST AT 60   
  MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.   
  
  SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.   
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.   
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  COTTAGE GROVE, PALMERSVILLE, PURYEAR, MATHENY GROVE, MILL CREEK,  
  BRUNDIGE, JONES MILL, FOUNDRY HILL, CONYERSVILLE AND CROSSLAND.  
  

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