Morch Madness Negative NAO Long Range discussion

[MD Snow]

6 minutes ago, wkd said:

I  think you're joking. There is potential next week if the closed upper low ends up a couple hundred miles south. At hr.198 it is sitting over Nj and the surface low is blocked and sits off the coast for a few days.

I think one of the reasons that we are getting responses like this today, is that some were probably expecting some tangible opportunities, trends up in snowfall, and cold to start showing up by now. Models are still going all over the place outside of about 120hrs. We really want to see models start to double down on blocking/snow/cold from here on out. Given it's March, any small shift away from this look is probably some sort of small disaster and a couple of small shifts would equal a major disaster. 

[MD Snow]

Any other things of note on the EPS? Still a good looking block on the long range or is it backing off? 

[showmethesnow]

Did anyone see the EPS control run? Runs that day 8 low to our south and east. Smokes New Jersey and E Pa and northward. See 3+ feet S NE. Better press of cold air initially and our region would have gotten into part of that.

[WeathermanB]

Delaware misses out on this event?

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'll take e25 on the Eps and call it a winter . Snows for a couple days ...crushes west of 95.

Would be acceptable.

Not impressed with most of the other members though. 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Did anyone see the EPS control run? Runs that day 8 low to our south and east. Smokes New Jersey and E Pa and northward. See 3+ feet S NE. Better press of cold air initially and our region would have gotten into part of that.

@showmethesnowWhat do you think of that solution off the record?

Refresh my mind, what are the advantages of viewing the control run in terms of model outcomes?

Thanks

 

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

Delaware misses out on this event?

If you are talking the Control, The northern tip manages to sneak into the 2-3 inch line while the rest of Delaware is trace to an inch or so.

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Did anyone see the EPS control run? Runs that day 8 low to our south and east. Smokes New Jersey and E Pa and northward. See 3+ feet S NE. Better press of cold air initially and our region would have gotten into part of that.

its funny. As soon as the euro run ended...i told HM on twitter that he euro control would save us before it even came out

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

@showmethesnowWhat do you think of that solution off the record?

Refresh my mind, what are the advantages of viewing the control run in terms of model outcomes?

Thanks

 

Control is just a lower resolution version of the Op run. So it has had none of its parameters disturbed that you see with the other ensemble members. 

As far as its solution? This is exactly what we would want to see. Give this track and evolution and pray that the cold presses in a little better and most of this forum would be some happy campers. That said, I trust it as much as the op runs being thrown out at this point. Which isn't much.

[frd]

5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Control is just a lower resolution version of the Op run. So it has had none of its parameters disturbed that you see with the other ensemble members. 

As far as its solution? This is exactly what we would want to see. Give this track and evolution and pray that the cold presses in a little better and most of this forum would be some happy campers. That said, I trust it as much as the op runs being thrown out at this point. Which isn't much.

Thank you

[Wonderdog]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Control is just a lower resolution version of the Op run. So it has had none of its parameters disturbed that you see with the other ensemble members. 

As far as its solution? This is exactly what we would want to see. Give this track and evolution and pray that the cold presses in a little better and most of this forum would be some happy campers. That said, I trust it as much as the op runs being thrown out at this point. Which isn't much.

Just have the maps on TT but isn't the EURO looking  and trending much better than at 0z?

[showmethesnow]

21 minutes ago, frd said:

Thank you

Just thought I would add. With the control's solution and shave a couple/few degrees off the solution and what we would have is a storm that would probably rival the top 10, if not the top 5 storms of all times from DC up to NE. 

eta: I stand corrected. It isn't the cold that kills us, its the lack of precip. The precip slides all around around our region as the low tracks to our south, up the coast and then retrogrades back down the coast. That would be the ultimate middle finger to us this winter.

[showmethesnow]

10 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Just have the maps on TT but isn't the EURO looking  and trending much better than at 0z?

For day 8? Looks as if the surface slipped somewhat taking the low further north. As far as the 500's? Somewhat different look but I would side with that slipping somewhat as well.

eta: Looking at the rest of the run I think I liked the 00Z run a little better as well. But this is all a quick glance because i am in the middle of something else right this second so maybe I  am off base somewhat.

[frd]

11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Just thought I would add. With the control's solution and shave a couple/few degrees off the solution and what we would have is a storm that would probably rival the top 10, if not the top 5 storms of all times from DC up to NE. 

You are correct and HM just posted its not really about the details yet.  

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

You are correct and HM just posted its not really about the details yet.  

Don't know if you saw my edit above. But it isn't temps that get us but instead the lack of precip. But I agree with HM. Details are unimportant at this time. This track is exactly what we want to see. Get that and I think the details would work out fine for us. 

[Amped]

51 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

For day 8? Looks as if the surface slipped somewhat taking the low further north. As far as the 500's? Somewhat different look but I would side with that slipping somewhat as well.

eta: Looking at the rest of the run I think I liked the 00Z run a little better as well. But this is all a quick glance because i am in the middle of something else right this second so maybe I  am off base somewhat.

Day8 storm is very doubtful without a decent supply of cold.  I'm just expecting wind and rain. Going to need an bullseye with the 500mb low in order to get anything else.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Just thought I would add. With the control's solution and shave a couple/few degrees off the solution and what we would have is a storm that would probably rival the top 10, if not the top 5 storms of all times from DC up to NE. 

eta: I stand corrected. It isn't the cold that kills us, its the lack of precip. The precip slides all around around our region as the low tracks to our south, up the coast and then retrogrades back down the coast. That would be the ultimate middle finger to us this winter.

That kinda what happened in that horrible Dec. 2010 storm?

[midatlanticweather]

Yes it did! La Nina like situation! 

[Ralph Wiggum]

I think one of the reasons that we are getting responses like this today, is that some were probably expecting some tangible opportunities, trends up in snowfall, and cold to start showing up by now. Models are still going all over the place outside of about 120hrs. We really want to see models start to double down on blocking/snow/cold from here on out. Given it's March, any small shift away from this look is probably some sort of small disaster and a couple of small shifts would equal a major disaster. 

The reason those responses are popping up are the same broken record over and over......some people set their expectations too high due to a favorable teleconnection in the LR so when an op model at 10 days out(!) isnt what they want to see (even if the preferred guidance at that range, the ens means, disagree with op runs), they get discouraged. It is a sickness. We have chances coming up starting in about 10 days give or take. That's all we can ask for in early Morch. Some years you can look at the upper air pattern and just know its basically over. We dont have that stake thru the heart type thing this year. And if the chances dont pan out, so be it. At least we are all still here tracking 'something' still right now.

[Ralph Wiggum]

its funny. As soon as the euro run ended...i told HM on twitter that he euro control would save us before it even came out

Im sure HM felt relieved that you consoled him because he was probably ready to jump off a cliff.

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The Euro kinda did what the GFS did, but to a lesser extent. Doesn't retro the NA ridge enough and tries to merge it with the ridging over the US.

The euro op is an unmitigated disaster.  It's doing exactly what the op gfs did. The EPS geps and gefs don't do that. They all keep the ridge far enough north to allow troughing under and not link up with the conus ridge. So it would be foolish to get overly alarmed by two op runs.  If you want to feel good stop reading now.

But...it's still the the two best ops and things start to go horribly wrong at only day 7. The signs the nao ridge is gonna slide south and link with the mid latitude ridge is already apparent by then. And while the ensembles don't do that man are they dangerously close. We need the block to retrograde southwest to offset the Pacific but man we're playing with fire. If that ridge gets too south and gets absorbed in with the mid lat ridge it's game over. The system in the Atlantic will cut off and just sit there then after it finally dissipates the ridging will reload east and it's all over. If that solution starts to show up more regularly...uh oh. 

That said att I think that's a hiccup. Not only is it not favored on guidance it's such a wacky extreme solution.  I'm not betting on that. 

[psuhoffman]

Happy hour lost the disaster idea of dropping the high lat ridge into the mid latitudes. I don't care what storm specifics are at range I just want that idea to go away.  

[showmethesnow]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The euro op is an unmitigated disaster.  It's doing exactly what the op gfs did. The EPS geps and gefs don't do that. They all keep the ridge far enough north to allow troughing under and not link up with the conus ridge. So it would be foolish to get overly alarmed by two op runs.  If you want to feel good stop reading now.

But...it's still the the two best ops and things start to go horribly wrong at only day 7. The signs the nao ridge is gonna slide south and link with the mid latitude ridge is already apparent by then. And while the ensembles don't do that man are they dangerously close. We need the block to retrograde southwest to offset the Pacific but man we're playing with fire. If that ridge gets too south and gets absorbed in with the mid lat ridge it's game over. The system in the Atlantic will cut off and just sit there then after it finally dissipates the ridging will reload east and it's all over. If that solution starts to show up more regularly...uh oh. 

That said att I think that's a hiccup. Not only is it not favored on guidance it's such a wacky extreme solution.  I'm not betting on that. 

Op run, I keep telling myself it's only an Op run. But it is a little troubling. See that occur and it is probably game over and we can start discussing next years El Nino.

[CAPE]

 

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The euro op is an unmitigated disaster.  It's doing exactly what the op gfs did. The EPS geps and gefs don't do that. They all keep the ridge far enough north to allow troughing under and not link up with the conus ridge. So it would be foolish to get overly alarmed by two op runs.  If you want to feel good stop reading now.

But...it's still the the two best ops and things start to go horribly wrong at only day 7. The signs the nao ridge is gonna slide south and link with the mid latitude ridge is already apparent by then. And while the ensembles don't do that man are they dangerously close. We need the block to retrograde southwest to offset the Pacific but man we're playing with fire. If that ridge gets too south and gets absorbed in with the mid lat ridge it's game over. The system in the Atlantic will cut off and just sit there then after it finally dissipates the ridging will reload east and it's all over. If that solution starts to show up more regularly...uh oh. 

That said att I think that's a hiccup. Not only is it not favored on guidance it's such a wacky extreme solution.  I'm not betting on that. 

Yeah I am right with you on this. I am not even close to panic mode yet lol. A bit disturbing to see both the 12z GFS and 12z EURO ops take similar unfavorable turns towards day 10, but not even close to cliff diving time.

Some are impatient(understandably) and probably expecting too much too soon, but the reality is that the advertised blocking, as has seemingly occurred in almost every case in recent years, could verify weaker and not persist. So far we are not seeing any strong indications of this on the ensembles. And yes the PAC is quite hostile so we really, really do need this to be a legit powerhouse block that retros into an ideal position and sticks around for 10 days. If not, well....

For now it looks like the 5th though maybe the 15th is when the pattern should become more favorable for winter events in our region.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Op run, I keep telling myself it's only an Op run. But it is a little troubling. See that occur and it is probably game over and we can start discussing next years El Nino.

It's troubling because it was the 2 best op runs simultaneously at only Day 7. Can't totally discount it. That's more then just a passing crazy day 15 gfs op run. But it's still not the favored solution imo. That said there is no probably if that happens it's OVER.  It's March. A central conus full latitude ridge is a shutout pattern here in march. 

[showmethesnow]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's troubling because it was the 2 best op runs simultaneously at only Day 7. Can't totally discount it. That's more then just a passing crazy day 15 gfs op run. But it's still not the favored solution imo. That said there is no probably if that happens it's OVER.  It's March. A central conus full latitude ridge is a shutout pattern here in march. 

I hate making definitive statements because they quite often come back to bite me in the asp especially when it involves weather. But yeah, you are probably right.

[Vice-Regent]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's troubling because it was the 2 best op runs simultaneously at only Day 7. Can't totally discount it. That's more then just a passing crazy day 15 gfs op run. But it's still not the favored solution imo. That said there is no probably if that happens it's OVER.  It's March. A central conus full latitude ridge is a shutout pattern here in march. 

Morch Death Ridge. Walk away if you see it. Don't Bob Chill your way out of it. 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's troubling because it was the 2 best op runs simultaneously at only Day 7. Can't totally discount it. That's more then just a passing crazy day 15 gfs op run. But it's still not the favored solution imo. That said there is no probably if that happens it's OVER.  It's March. A central conus full latitude ridge is a shutout pattern here in march. 

It's a very delicate balance for sure. Like you said it is playing with fire because we need the western trough off the west coast, and the downstream ridge axis somewhere near the Rockies. But to get that we likely need the NA block to bully its way pretty far SW, and if that trough wants to hang tough, the conus ridge is too far east, and we end up with one big consolidated ridge which will inevitably end up right back over the eastern US.

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Morch Death Ridge. Walk away if you see it. Don't Bob Chill your way out of it. 

What do you mean? Chill doesn’t hype bad patterns or try to make them seem better than they are.  

[psuhoffman]

Happy hour gfs is mucho bueno imo. I'm sure JI will be among to say it's a disaster because it doesn't show a snowstorm but the ops won't be right with the specifics Day 10-15 but it's got a trough in the east under blocking with systems tracking under us.  I can work with that. The 12z version was a disaster. That was an unworkable mess. 

Its like first day of spring training.

18z gfs. Your pitcher has a 98 mph heater with a killer slider but needs to work out communication  problems with the catcher. Your leadoff hitter has 4.2 speed and makes good contact but can't read a pitchers pick off move and needs to take more pitches. And your best power hitter crushes the ball 450 feet but needs to learn to lay off the curve. The potential is there.

12z gfs Your pitcher has a 70 mph fast ball and no movement. Your leadoff hitter runs a 6.5 and can't make contact. Your only power hitter can't hit a fast ball. Face palm time.