Ji Posted February 22, 2018 Author Share Posted February 22, 2018 euro way more south than GFS should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: euro way more south than GFS should be interesting For late next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: For late next week? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 24 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2018 Author Share Posted February 22, 2018 so much for slow moving storms lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Way too warm. Am I wrong in that regard? 850mbs are torched any love for Central PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2018 Author Share Posted February 22, 2018 no cold air..a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2018 Author Share Posted February 22, 2018 no HP pressure....this -NAO period looks like a #$3storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2018 Author Share Posted February 22, 2018 looks like storm stalls over New England:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: no HP pressure....this -NAO period looks like a #$3storm Just give it a few weeks..then things will really get rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2018 Author Share Posted February 22, 2018 only we can find a way to blow a historic -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Euro is a disaster. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Grrrrrr. I just want a cartopper....said nobody in this forum ever! I’ll wait for GFS happy hour to deliver some BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: only we can find a way to blow a historic -NAO I’d start preparing mentally for that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2018 Author Share Posted February 22, 2018 there is no cold air anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: there is no cold air anywhere It's Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 What sliver of optimism I have left tells me these op runs will be disasters until early next week. Change the block ...change the equation. If the GEFS and EPS start to fail then it really may be time to call a time of death for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2018 Author Share Posted February 22, 2018 if i had to draw up a disaster...i couldnt of done it bettter than todays models did it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: there is no cold air anywhere Relax its one op run. That block has to really retrograde sw and be a bully to overcome the crappy PAC. Need to get the trough off the west coast and the downstream ridge in a better spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 The Euro kinda did what the GFS did, but to a lesser extent. Doesn't retro the NA ridge enough and tries to merge it with the ridging over the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Relax its one op run. That block has to really retrograde sw and be a bully to overcome the crappy PAC. Need to get the trough off the west coast and the downstream ridge in a better spot. The crappy PAC has really been concerning to me. Not going to get concerned overall until we get into the middle of next week and there are still no signs of a storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 7 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: It's Morch. Actually for the first time I somewhat agree with you. Each day in March it gets just a tick harder. Sure it can snow and has plenty of times but no one can argue it’s overall tougher equation. The cold needs to be better, deeper, better location. The block only works if it’s cold. Or it just ends up being a slow moving rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Actually for the first time I somewhat agree with you. Each day in March it gets just a tick harder. Sure it can snow and has plenty of times but no one can argue it’s overall tougher equation. The cold needs to be better, deeper, better location. The block only works if it’s cold. Or it just ends up being a slow moving rainstorm. Wouldn't it make sense that these storms earlier in the blocking pattern would be slow moving rainstorms, even with a decent track? IIRC, the storm a week before the (Great) Blizzard of 2016 had a good track, but was all rain regardless. Even the Blizzard of 2016 was progged as a mix mess/rain over a week out, despite having the setup perfect. If history is to be believed, then it would make sense that our best shot would be before the blocking degrades, as was the case in Jan 2016, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 18 minutes ago, Ji said: if i had to draw up a disaster...i couldnt of done it bettter than todays models did it Have you seen the upper air charts for the last two days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Wouldn't it make sense that these storms earlier in the blocking pattern would be slow moving rainstorms, even with a decent track? IIRC, the storm a week before the (Great) Blizzard of 2016 had a good track, but was all rain regardless. Even the Blizzard of 2016 was progged as a mix mess/rain over a week out, despite having the setup perfect. If history is to be believed, then it would make sense that our best shot would be before the blocking degrades, as was the case in Jan 2016, right? Right assuming the block actually holds and doesn’t morph into some zombie high presssure ridge. Who knows..we are almost out of tricks anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Right assuming the block actually holds and doesn’t morph into some zombie high presssure ridge. Who knows..we are almost out of tricks anyway ways to not get snow FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: FYP Thanks. That’s what I meant. I’m going to keep an open mind until the block sets up and we see where it takes us. Might be the last stretch to track a fail. I do love to track except maybe this year....so much promise back around 8-9 Dec...yeesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Thanks. That’s what I meant. I’m going to keep an open mind until the block sets up and we see where it takes us. Might be the last stretch to track a fail. I do love to track except maybe this year....so much promise back around 8-9 Dec...yeesh No kidding. That week after with the 2 "over performing" events as well. I remember the talk of "it just wants to snow" during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro is a disaster. Next I think you're joking. There is potential next week if the closed upper low ends up a couple hundred miles south. At hr.198 it is sitting over Nj and the surface low is blocked and sits off the coast for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 We may be facing the outcome of the infamous "VodkaCold" winter where a better pattern was always 7-10 days and we chased that for 10 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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