Morch Madness Negative NAO Long Range discussion

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The day 7 and 11 threats are northern stream vorts being suppressed under the block. Guidance will struggle. Their legit but unlikely to be huge expansive storms. Could get lucky though. 

That day 16 thing though...that's the money period. The idea of that threat is showing up every run because that's the time when the block has retrogrades enough to link up with the pna ridge and we have a window then with enough ridging to our north to prevent a cut and enough western ridge to encourage something to amplify in the east. That's our window for a HECS in the east.  Doesn't mean it happens or we bullseye from it but that's the window of opportunity. 

I know it's day 16 but damn don't you wish the gfs went to day 20 so we could see the beat down it was about to lay on us?

Yeah I agree that the way the pattern looks to evolve towards day 15 has great potential. It is way out there though. Day 8-10 is far enough away, and even though it is NS shortwave getting forced under the block and we wont get a clear idea of what will transpire until much closer in, it is still likely the first real trackable window of interest. Would be nice to score a moderate event during this period, then get hammered a week later. Winter can then end, lol.

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Been away from the models for the last 5 days so I am now just catching up. Couple things come to mind.

Day 8/9 has to be watched. Think the odds on this are better then many think though I would still place them on the south side of 50%. Models are now responding to the blocking and are shifting that system southward. If the blocking is legit that is exactly where I would expect it to go and not to the north of our region. Now at this point temps are crap on the models leading into the storm so expecting snows is a tall order. But just as we see the low now responding to the blocking I would also expect we will see a concurrent response of better Higher pressures to the north. And that is what we are starting to see. What this means is that we have a better press of colder air southward leading into and during the storm. Now whether it is cold enough, quick enough is anyone's guess. Now if we can't score with the initial moisture there is also another possibility on the table. Models now seem to be picking up on redeveloping a secondary off the coast, whether from the initial low or a followup after it exits. This may have to be watched as well though anything from it would be a quick hitter as the flow is progressive.

As far as 10+ day on the models? Really don't have to much of an opinion at this time. Taken verbatim they show what looks to be the beginnings of the breaking down of the blocking. But I am not so sure I buy that at this time because the models have a somewhat muddy/washed out look in the higher latitudes. I will say I am not enamored with the 50/50 dropping so far south on the EPS earlier in the extended (day 10-12). It sets us up on the backside of the trough which argues that any coastal that develops at that time would be suppressed and progressive. After that the pv feature gets somewhat muddied and where it ends up would be anyone's guess. But day 13-15 does look interesting as we see the eastern trough retrograde westward and low height anomalies show up on the eastern seaboard off the VA coast. 

The GEFS pv placement is much better (farther north) which places the trough in a much better position for anything that may pop up. Actually like the overall look in the higher latitudes better then the EPS. We are also seeing a very good look for roughly day 13-16 with trough positioning and low pressure anomalies. Seems that both the GEFS and the EPS like this time frame (13-15). Now if we can get similar looks inside of 7 days then it may be game on. But at this point anything past day 10 is fantasy land so don't go booking your skiing trips quite yet.

 

I agree on the day 9-ish deal. Its a bit of an odd evolution and NS, but there has been some persistence in the guidance, and with the developing block/50-50 low, it could easily end up snowing in our region or even further south. Its the first real threat window so why not focus on that. The pattern looks to get more favorable beyond that before perhaps beginning to break down, so maybe a bigger event is on the table for that period.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I agree that the way the pattern looks to evolve towards day 15 has great potential. It is way out there though. Day 8-10 is far enough away, and even though it is NS shortwave getting forced under the block and we wont get a clear idea of what will transpire until much closer in, it is still likely the first real trackable window of interest. Would be nice to score a moderate event during this period, then get hammered a week later. Winter can then end, lol.

I'm definitely not tossing the day 7-12 threats. One of them could easily track just under us and drop a warning criteria snow. Then the "big storm" hugs the coast too much and we rain. 

I was just pointing out the models will likely struggle still for a while with those threats and there is a window for a truly epic large scale sub 990 type storm toward march 10-15 as the blocking relaxes. 

We don't need that to snow though. One of those systems sliding west to east could easily drop a significant snow if they are just amplified enough and track right. 

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I agree on the day 9-ish deal. Its an odd evolution and NS, but there has been some persistence in the guidance, and with the developing block/50-50 low, it could easily end up snowing in our region or even further south. Its the first real threat window so why not focus on that. The pattern looks to get more favorable beyond that before perhaps beginning to break down, so maybe a bigger event is on the table for that period.

Yeah, I agree the overall pattern definitely looks good. But I would not want to put money on anything beyond day 10 at this point. The setup leading into day +10 argues for extreme solutions in the long range which would drastically change the landscape (for better or for worse) on what the models are presenting. I think that is why the ensembles look somewhat muddied to me. 

9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

6z Gefs low centers at day 8 supports this and the transfer idea ..

 

 

 

What i am really hoping for is to see better high pressure start showing up to the north in future runs. We need that to get the cold in. Otherwise we will most likely be wet instead of white irregardless of how this plays out. Best case scenario at this time is probably a rain to snow deal which favors the northern portions and higher altitudes. Plenty of time to see the changes we need to see though.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

the retrogression into PV +epo days 2-5 which more aesthetically leads to Atlantic ridge developing over eastern Canada and New England versus Greenland. Models show a +400dm over the Labrador Sea but there is very good chance this merges into +EPO pattern instead

[Ralph Wiggum]

the retrogression into PV +epo days 2-5 which more aesthetically leads to Atlantic ridge developing over eastern Canada and New England versus Greenland. Models show a +400dm over the Labrador Sea but there is very good chance this merges into +EPO pattern instead

A piece of the block may break off and pump the epo ridge....I could see that. However there is nothing suggesting the entire nao ridge retrogrades that far West nor anything indicative that the ridging makes it as far S from the nao zone as you mention with any staying power. The possibilities you tossed out are transient features at best with the Western -nao look locking in thru at least March 10. Obviously I doubt it remains at a -3SD look the entire time.....it will more likely gradually return to a -.5/-1 SD anomaly before flipping back positive (Archambault?) sometime between March 10-17.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

50 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

the retrogression into PV +epo days 2-5 which more aesthetically leads to Atlantic ridge developing over eastern Canada and New England versus Greenland. Models show a +400dm over the Labrador Sea but there is very good chance this merges into +EPO pattern instead

A piece of the block may break off and pump the epo ridge....I could see that. However there is nothing suggesting the entire nao ridge retrogrades that far West nor anything indicative that the ridging makes it as far S from the nao zone as you mention with any staying power. The possibilities you tossed out are transient features at best with the Western -nao look locking in thru at least March 10. Obviously I doubt it remains at a -3SD look the entire time.....it will more likely gradually return to a -.5/-1 SD anomaly before flipping back positive (Archambault?) sometime between March 10-17.

NAO ridge is dancing with the PV over western Arctic circle. It's already transitioning at 108 so ridging over Greenland but the western vortex doesn't just phase out as a Pacific ridge peaks over the western Canada mountains, it hasn't happened like this a lot since 2009. More likely the -PNA takes dominance, and the core anomaly is in southeast Canada. This will also be a center piece to the Spring (NW Pacific ridge longer term)

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I agree on the day 9-ish deal. Its a bit of an odd evolution and NS, but there has been some persistence in the guidance, and with the developing block/50-50 low, it could easily end up snowing in our region or even further south. Its the first real threat window so why not focus on that. The pattern looks to get more favorable beyond that before perhaps beginning to break down, so maybe a bigger event is on the table for that period.

Its a really odd evolution, but as Showme suggested in another post, you can see how the realigining of the streams is starting to show up, so with that in mind, it would support the idea of better trends as we move closer into the mid range

[BristowWx]

Just now, pasnownut said:

Its a really odd evolution, but as Showme suggested in another post, you can see how the realigining of the streams is starting to show up, so with that in mind, it would support the idea of better trends as we move closer into the mid term

HM mentioned something about the way the models are handling things.  This might be the scenario where things trend better.  I will eat those words no doubt.

[pasnownut]

Just now, BristowWx said:

HM mentioned something about the way the models are handling things.  This might be the scenario where things trend better.  I will eat those words no doubt.

yah and as i thought about it, I've only been reading w/ one eye open, but psu,chill,cape and others prob get creds for point that out as well.  

I've been thinking it since yesterday and the flow just seems so "off".

 

Maybe since the NAO has been gone for so long, the next gen models are like "WTF it this sh!t...wth's goin on here".  Never saw this before!

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

yah and as i thought about it, I've only been reading w/ one eye open, but psu,chill,cape and others prob get creds for point that out as well.  

I've been thinking it since yesterday and the flow just seems so "off".

 

Maybe since the NAO has been gone for so long, the next gen models are like "WTF it this sh!t...wth's goin on here".  Never saw this before!

With the -NAO nearing peak strength and in a pretty ideal position the end of next week, and the 50-50 low (displaced somewhat southward), interesting things can happen even though the look out west is still pretty crappy at that point. Probably still favor a NS system getting forced underneath for now, but that could work. Just need it cold enough and we could get a moderate frozen/mixed event.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

I know it is hour 384 on the GFS but that looks like mauling on the way, no? I am looking at the 6z. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Hopefully this time frame becomes our first threat 

 

I believe it did a few runs ago when the Euro and EPS began consistently signaling some type of storm activity centered around March 3 give or take a day either side. Now we are getting the GFS family on board, so I believe it is safe to say we have our first legit LR threat. 

Eta: Whether a frozen threat or not tbd 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

I know it is hour 384 on the GFS but that looks like mauling on the way, no? I am looking at the 6z. 

Yes...as depicted DC crushed hour 402 give or take.  I don’t like the 3rd but can see the potential.  Haven’t heard DC crushed in a long time.  Also Stone Cold Assasin...one of my favorites

[rcflyermd68]

Per HM

Anthony Masiello‏ @antmasiello

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The front end time of blocks, esp after a very warm pattern, normally favor interior and New England. But this storm later next week comes at the peak of the block's retrograde, not necessarily its start. That's what 1962 did as well, as an extreme example.

 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, rcflyermd68 said:

Per HM

Anthony Masiello‏ @antmasiello

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The front end time of blocks, esp after a very warm pattern, normally favor interior and New England. But this storm later next week comes at the peak of the block's retrograde, not necessarily its start. That's what 1962 did as well, as an extreme example.

 

If HM says it’s something to watch I’m kind of in...he is one of the best for sure.  I just don’t like that evolution.  Not clean at all. 

[Scraff]

16 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

If HM says it’s something to watch I’m kind of in...he is one of the best for sure.  I just don’t like that evolution.  Not clean at all. 

All good. It’s got plenty of time for the cleaning crew to come in and make it all sparkly for us. 

 

[pasnownut]

35 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like a couple such scenarios here on the 6z Gefs . Hopefully this time frame becomes our first threat 

there are a few in there that would surely work.  I think by this weekend we should gain some clarity as to where this is heading.  

and to the 402 hr stuff...I love it.

[Ji]

there is alot of big hits on the euro  EPS for march 2-3. Not sure if they are all snow though. Here is P1

 

 

[Ji]

what model typically forecasts MJO the best? We are entering phase 8 but models differ on amplitude

[Bob Chill]

@Ji, here's your meteo. Best one yet for the 2-4th period but still a ways to go before we can start thinking it's a legit threat. 

 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@Ji, here's your meteo. Best one yet for the 2-4th period but still a ways to go before we can start thinking it's a legit threat. 

 

not bad and improving. There is some wild stuff on the EPS members lol. blocking is fun...until its rain

[Ji]

12z GFS appears heading towards garbage. Euro is much better model in blocking right?

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

that storm needs to not be so amped up

[Ji]

1 minute ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said:

that storm needs to not be so amped up

its the biggest disaster since the Titanic

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

12z GFS appears heading towards garbage. Euro is much better model in blocking right?

Garbage.  But it’s early. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

12z GFS appears heading towards garbage. Euro is much better model in blocking right?

The gfs for several runs lately wants to amplify the system pretty far north into the Midwest. It even turns southeast because it's blocked but the damage is done with a screwed up thermal boundary way north in front.  The euro is flatter in the Midwest so everything is coming east from a further south latitude.  Last night ggem was closer to the euro.   I have no idea if the gfs is right. Could be the block is just getting into prime location then and there is a lot of ridging left still under it. If that is how it goes down our threat would be after that as that system pulls the 50/50 back and merges. For a time it looks suppressive but it will relax eventually and then... not saying I want to wait. I hope the euro idea is rught and we have multiple threats but I'm not gonna pretend to know which is modeling that correctly. 

[psuhoffman]

A west track can work with a block when there is cold in place. After the march 2 threat cold will filter in and after that a nw track can still snow on us some. But the temps are still recovering from the torch in front of that wave so if it gets way up to our north in the Midwest were in trouble.  

[psuhoffman]

The upper low tracks from north of Chicago and exits near Norfolk. Lol. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

If that energy around hour 186 would consolidate itself  by means of less influence from that north atlantic low it would surely wrap up much tighter and maybe cutoff. 

I doubt the guidance is handling this right at range. The ggem is lol. No storm. But Day 7-10 it's tracking a system east to west north of us lol. Some crazy stuff showing up. Gfs has weak systems moving north to south down the coast. Everything is pinwheeling around stuck under the blocking.