WxUSAF Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 44 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 93' was nailed a solid 6 days out easy that I can remember. Which is equivalent to 10-12 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: As I've gotten more familiar with tracking our winter wx around here...I'm realizing how much a gift January 2016 was in that regard, lol I mean how often do you see all models in agreement from like 8 days out like that? (It's kinda rare, isn't it? Or was it more of a product of the textbook look we had with that one?) The models came into agreement around 6 days out for January 2016. There was a strong signal on the ensembles, but this is what it looked like 7 days out: On 1/15/2016 at 1:42 PM, Wentzadelphia said: EURO wants nothing to do with the Friday event still.... On 1/15/2016 at 1:45 PM, Wentzadelphia said: This one's for Ji On 1/15/2016 at 1:59 PM, Ji said: JMA usually sniffs out these things first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 I have a theory on 09-10 and Jan 2016. Entirely southern stream systems are easier to get right because 1) they move slower and 2) northern stream is inherently difficult to model correctly at longer leads. Could be that satellite data is better in the mid latitudes. Or it could be that the northern stream always has complicated and/or short wavelengths in comparison to the southern stream. The period we're entering is still mostly northern stream driven (if not completely northern stream). I don't expect any long lead tracks but I could see a good storm signal hold in time but takes on many faces as leads shorten. The 93 storm was about as big as they come. Very large storms generally get picked up way out in time. I can't think of any big storm that just sorta snuck up in the mid or short range. Even the Jan bomb this year was being picked up on 7+ days out and that happened in a very progressive pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 93' was nailed a solid 6 days out easy that I can remember. I remember it was in the 5 day forecast and it was almost a slam dunk.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 6 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I remember it was in the 5 day forecast and it was almost a slam dunk. . Actually the models picked up on the storm 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 This pattern deasn't really start looking great until March 6th when the PNA flip on the GEFS kicks in. Possibility we get snow before then, but it doesn't look great. The ideal time frame could easily be after the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Amped said: This pattern deasn't really start looking great until March 6th when the PNA flip on the GEFS kicks in. Possibility we get snow before then, but it doesn't look great. The ideal time frame could easily be after the 10th. I agree. Our upcoming pattern looks nothing like 93. I guess it could eventually but the same issues still haunt us except we have blocking so it’s a slower paced NS snowless look for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 February 2010 was definitely a long lead. And as soon as that one hit, they were already talking about the next one. And January 2016 had amazing lock in. It literally never wavered for a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 93 was an outrageous storm and i agree i don't think it's reasonable to expect that again anytime soon. even though it wasn't a superstorm snowfall here, it had impacts all the way down to the gulf coast including that wicked derecho. even had thundersnow here during the morning before it flipped to sleet. i don't know much but it seems like a storm you'd get when a strong subtropical jet combines with a polar vortex or something generally silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: 93' was nailed a solid 6 days out easy that I can remember. Euro started showing it 11 days out if I remember correctly. I was working As a coop student and remember watching map discussions way ahead of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcflyermd68 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 very interesting point from HM my final tweet on this: the one thing I know for certain is that the current evolution on the modeling is wrong and possibly way off. The way the trough drops down the West Coast and a s/w emerges as wave train amplifies ALONE is crazy enough. 1 reply0 retweets3 likes Reply 1 Retweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Presidents Day 03 was talked about well in advance also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, notvirga! said: Presidents Day 03 was talked about well in advance also Yep. And the track was locked down way out. I knew I was getting buried a week in advance. It seems like all of the big ones get modeled very well. The last big storm I can remember that didnt have a long lead time was the Dec 09 storm. And even then we knew there was going to be storm. We just didnt know who was going to get hit until a few days before it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Can confirm 12/19/09 was iffy at day 5 and a lock at day 3. Believe me, I watched that storm like a hawk . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2018 Author Share Posted February 22, 2018 Feb 11 2006 was a huge storm that showed up on the models Wednesday and the storm was Saturday. Jma picked it up first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Wife cane home and said everyone at work was taking about big snowstorm next week. Science teacher said polar vortex is coming from Greenland. I’ve learned not to argue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2018 Author Share Posted February 22, 2018 my favorite marches 1. march 2018 2. March 1993 3. march 1999 4. March 2015 5. March 2013(i think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 March 1891 is the benchmark apparently at DCA. 23-24th. 2 centuries ago. It wasn’t even that spectacular. 12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Pretty nice looking set up right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 And of course @ hour 384 looks interesting. Can see the potential in the upcoming pattern. Nice GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: And of course @ hour 384 looks interesting. Can see the potential in the upcoming pattern. Nice GFS run. Sweet look from about day 10 onward. Hopefully next week at this time we are tracking a legit threat. Would be nice to end the season with a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Just now, Chris78 said: Sweet look from about day 10 onward. Hopefully next week at this time we are tracking a legit thread. Would be nice to end the season with a bang. Yeah the ops have been spitting out some interesting looks with regularity the last several runs. It shouldn't be too much longer before we can hone in on a legit discrete threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Does anybody know what this looks like on the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 16 minutes ago, PDIII said: Does anybody know what this looks like on the surface? Snowfall maps show some decent 6+ in the higher elevations with some trace to 2 inch amounts all the way to the coast through southern VA. Don't buy it though. The temps argue for mostly wet except for the higher elevations. Control run from the ensembles has a very similar solution to the Op but also redevelops a low off the coast immediately after this runs through. Much snowier solution with 1 - 1 1/2 feet from WV extending down into eastern NC (including a good chunk of central VA). Don't have the maps to get a valid idea if it is legit or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Snowfall maps show some decent 6+ in the higher elevations with some trace to 2 inch amounts all the way to the coast through southern VA. Don't buy it though. The temps argue for mostly wet except for the higher elevations. Control run from the ensembles has a very similar solution to the Op but also redevelops a low off the coast immediately after this runs through. Much snowier solution with 1 - 1 1/2 feet from WV extending down into eastern NC (including a good chunk of central VA). Don't have the maps to get a valid idea if it is legit or not. I was waiting for something like this to start popping up in the LR. The GFS had a big slow moving storm too but it gets a little too far north... exciting times ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 59 minutes ago, PDIII said: I was waiting for something like this to start popping up in the LR. The GFS had a big slow moving storm too but it gets a little too far north... exciting times ahead! There is a pretty strong signal for a slow moving coastal storm towards March 3rd on the 0z EPS. Tracks west to east right through the MA and off the MA coast. Verbatim it looks better for places just north of our latitude on this run. For those who like to look at LR snowfall means, it ticked up decently on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2018 Author Share Posted February 22, 2018 54 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: There is a pretty strong signal for a slow moving coastal storm towards March 3rd on the 0z EPS. Tracks west to east right through the MA and off the MA coast. Verbatim it looks better for places just north of our latitude on this run. For those who like to look at LR snowfall means, it ticked up decently on the EPS. i would of paid 19.99 to see the 390-424 hour 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 6 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: And of course @ hour 384 looks interesting. Can see the potential in the upcoming pattern. Nice GFS run. The day 7 and 11 threats are northern stream vorts being suppressed under the block. Guidance will struggle. Their legit but unlikely to be huge expansive storms. Could get lucky though. That day 16 thing though...that's the money period. The idea of that threat is showing up every run because that's the time when the block has retrogrades enough to link up with the pna ridge and we have a window then with enough ridging to our north to prevent a cut and enough western ridge to encourage something to amplify in the east. That's our window for a HECS in the east. Doesn't mean it happens or we bullseye from it but that's the window of opportunity. I know it's day 16 but damn don't you wish the gfs went to day 20 so we could see the beat down it was about to lay on us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 28 minutes ago, Ji said: i would of paid 19.99 to see the 390-424 hour 6z GFS Uh oh..I'll admit that's exactly what I thought. I know it's just a pipe dream at that range but I don't care I still wanted to see that epic beat down it had ready for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Been away from the models for the last 5 days so I am now just catching up. Couple things come to mind. Day 8/9 has to be watched. Think the odds on this are better then many think though I would still place them on the south side of 50%. Models are now responding to the blocking and are shifting that system southward. If the blocking is legit that is exactly where I would expect it to go and not to the north of our region. Now at this point temps are crap on the models leading into the storm so expecting snows is a tall order. But just as we see the low now responding to the blocking I would also expect we will see a concurrent response of better Higher pressures to the north. And that is what we are starting to see. What this means is that we have a better press of colder air southward leading into and during the storm. Now whether it is cold enough, quick enough is anyone's guess. Now if we can't score with the initial moisture there is also another possibility on the table. Models now seem to be picking up on redeveloping a secondary off the coast, whether from the initial low or a followup after it exits. This may have to be watched as well though anything from it would be a quick hitter as the flow is progressive. As far as 10+ day on the models? Really don't have to much of an opinion at this time. Taken verbatim they show what looks to be the beginnings of the breaking down of the blocking. But I am not so sure I buy that at this time because the models have a somewhat muddy/washed out look in the higher latitudes. I will say I am not enamored with the 50/50 dropping so far south on the EPS earlier in the extended (day 10-12). It sets us up on the backside of the trough which argues that any coastal that develops at that time would be suppressed and progressive. After that the pv feature gets somewhat muddied and where it ends up would be anyone's guess. But day 13-15 does look interesting as we see the eastern trough retrograde westward and low height anomalies show up on the eastern seaboard off the VA coast. The GEFS pv placement is much better (farther north) which places the trough in a much better position for anything that may pop up. Actually like the overall look in the higher latitudes better then the EPS. We are also seeing a very good look for roughly day 13-16 with trough positioning and low pressure anomalies. Seems that both the GEFS and the EPS like this time frame (13-15). Now if we can get similar looks inside of 7 days then it may be game on. But at this point anything past day 10 is fantasy land so don't go booking your skiing trips quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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