Interstate Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 35 for the win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: new Nam went from 0 to 30 inches for parts of new England in one run. That happens to us Why are you doing this to yourself? That was never even supposed to be our storm. Why are you stuck on it? Nam trended north if anything. This isn't even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Transfer is happening too far out to sea. It will bomb near NJ and probably move south or redevelop another coastal low when primary goes out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS looks pretty good day 10-15. But the beginning of THE END showing up Day 15 on all guidance. Once that AK vortex develops we're on borrowed time. Maybe 4-6 days before the cold gets booted from North America and it's game over. I never thought I would say this but I am almost relieved...It’s been death by 1000 cuts ...just give me the deathblow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 EPS looks pretty good day 10-15. But the beginning of THE END showing up Day 15 on all guidance. Once that AK vortex develops we're on borrowed time. Maybe 4-6 days before the cold gets booted from North America and it's game over. That's okay dude...thats march 22 according to your math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Transfer is happening too far out to sea. It will bomb near NJ and probably move south or redevelop another coastal low when primary goes out to sea That second scenario is the only way I could even fathom this Hail Mary working. If it trends towards a slower cut off low and more disconnect to where the first system escapes and another redevelopment happens behind it as the upper low catches up. But that's a crazy scenario. And nam went the other way toward a consolidated bomb for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Ji said: 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS looks pretty good day 10-15. But the beginning of THE END showing up Day 15 on all guidance. Once that AK vortex develops we're on borrowed time. Maybe 4-6 days before the cold gets booted from North America and it's game over. That's okay dude...thats march 22 according to your math No the AK vortex gets going by day 10 so our window might only be 5 days or so. Disappointing but it is what it is. Who knows maybe another ridge pops and there is no window at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 19 minutes ago, Ji said: new Nam went from 0 to 30 inches for parts of new England in one run. That happens to us And it is still snowing after H84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 24 minutes ago, Ji said: new Nam went from 0 to 30 inches for parts of new England in one run. That happens to us It's an absolute Mauling...They always win. If it were to play out like that and i didn't have to work Friday, I'd go up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 The EPS has a few good hits. This one is the best I believe https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/m41_snow-depth-in/20180314-1200z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No the AK vortex gets going by day 10 so our window might only be 5 days or so. Disappointing but it is what it is. Who knows maybe another ridge pops and there is no window at all. I have been busy with work so have not had much time to look at the guidance(a very good thing). Just looking at the ensembles at h5 and it appears as though we might have a 7 day window leading up to mid month, maybe a bit beyond. I am not optimistic. The pattern that once looked pretty damn promising now looks like yet another dud. Still some hope because as modeled it is decent for a brief period, but literally nothing has broken our way so its difficult to envision our luck changing as we approach mid March. I suppose something could still sneak up on us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 The EPS has a few good hits. This one is the best I believe https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/m41_snow-depth-in/20180314-1200z.htmlThere are 51 members...a few good hits is nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 It's an absolute Mauling...They always win. If it were to play out like that and i didn't have to work Friday, I'd go up there. Very tempting. I havent seen snow in 2 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Ji said: 26 minutes ago, Interstate said: The EPS has a few good hits. This one is the best I believe https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/maryland/m41_snow-depth-in/20180314-1200z.html There are 51 members...a few good hits is nothing It is something, just not much. What a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 Someone start a new thread. This thread is a disaster with bad juju....fake good pattern and Delaware talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 32 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's an absolute Mauling...They always win. If it were to play out like that and i didn't have to work Friday, I'd go up there. Very tempting. I havent seen snow in 2 years Do it. I would go if I could, and I have chased 2 pretty great storms in the last 2 winters. (Delaware!!!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Whoever starts the new "good juju" thread, please spell MARCH correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Created a new thread. Perhaps we had this bad luck due to Ji creating the first thread Don't disappoint me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 Lol the March thread didnt even last till March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I have been busy with work so have not had much time to look at the guidance(a very good thing). Just looking at the ensembles at h5 and it appears as though we might have a 7 day window leading up to mid month, maybe a bit beyond. I am not optimistic. The pattern that once looked pretty damn promising now looks like yet another dud. Still some hope because as modeled it is decent for a brief period, but literally nothing has broken our way so its difficult to envision our luck changing as we approach mid March. I suppose something could still sneak up on us though. I guess I don't understand the doom and gloom today. I was never that high on things that i felt we were likely to win. I did feel we had a chance. Maybe 30%. Still do. Yea it would have been nice to get one of these early events as the pattern change to become a threat. But unless my memory is failing didn't we kind of know this march 1-2 thing was a LOOONG shot from 10 days ago? I specifically remember numerous posts saying we probably are looking at the second to third week of march. 10-15 was thrown around a lot and not just by me. So not having anything before then work out sucks but I expected it. But the prime window we are looking at the 10-15 looks even better today then it did yesterday imo. The snow mean on both EPS and gefs went up for that period. It's only not up overall because the bogus fake snow from outliers this week fell off. So while I get pessimism what happened today that set everyone off on this negative? Was it losing the 20" fantasy gfs op storm? Or is there something I'm not seeing? Were people actually expecting the rain storm this week that starts out north of Chicago with the 540 line near Montreal to trend south enough for us? What looks worse today then yesterday that has the mood so down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ji said: Lol the March thread didnt even last till March Whoever spelled Morch (torch) cursed the epic block. I new it soon as I saw it. Might as well put a T there and call it a season fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I guess I don't understand the doom and gloom today. I was never that high on things that i felt we were likely to win. I did feel we had a chance. Maybe 30%. Still do. Yea it would have been nice to get one of these early events as the pattern change to become a threat. But unless my memory is failing didn't we kind of know this march 1-2 thing was a LOOONG shot from 10 days ago? I specifically remember numerous posts saying we probably are looking at the second to third week of march. 10-15 was thrown around a lot and not just by me. So not having anything before then work out sucks but I expected it. But the prime window we are looking at the 10-15 looks even better today then it did yesterday imo. The snow mean on both EPS and gefs went up for that period. It's only not up overall because the bogus fake snow from outliers this week fell off. So while I get pessimism what happened today that set everyone off on this negative? Was it losing the 20" fantasy gfs op storm? Or is there something I'm not seeing? Were people actually expecting the rain storm this week that starts out north of Chicago with the 540 line near Montreal to trend south enough for us? What looks worse today then yesterday that has the mood so down?YesThe March 10th period was always the hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.