psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Perhaps 522 thicknesses are needed cause 528 isn't getting it done. March boundary layer temperatures for the loss It would be fine if that precip was heavier. That's not the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, cae said: We could certainly score with that pattern, but it's uncomfortably close to the composite of March "total fail blocks" that you posted earlier. Could just be noise though. I'm keeping an eye on the ensembles. My short read is that it's still more likely than not that we get little to nothing, but we have a better chance of a big hit than almost any time during this winter so far. Good catch. That's concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 11 minutes ago, cae said: We could certainly score with that pattern, but it's uncomfortably close to the composite of March "total fail blocks" that you posted earlier. Could just be noise though. I'm keeping an eye on the ensembles. My short read is that it's still more likely than not that we get little to nothing, but we have a better chance of a big hit than almost any time during this winter so far. That trough in AK is a problem. Looking at what works and doesn't it seems the strong linked epo nao is no good but the epo breaks down completely instead of just relaxing and ends up too far west. Maybe there is a window during the transition before the effects of the AK vortex can kill things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I tried to argue be careful what you wish for back in January. Even if there was never going to be a mecs or HECS in that look if we had held that pattern eventually a clipper or weak wave like December 9th would have given us a lucky pass. Im not an I told you so kind so I've kept my mouth shut since but as we've been mostly in a crap shutout since with systems going way north the thought has crossed my mind. Right with ya on this one. Was very skeptical that a shift in the pattern would yield anything better. Of course I have kept my mouth shut mostly because I actually did get to experience the early Jan storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Gefs looks ok. Mean h5 looks to be favorable day 10 on. 4 huge hits on the members day 10-15. Then a few other close calls and small hits mixed in. Better run than 6z imo. It's about the same as 0z. Mean snowfall was a small tick lower but that was only because the gefs finally lost all the crazy outlier members that had snow day 1-10. All the snow from 12z is finally day 10-15 nothing from fake threats so the snowfall day 10-15 went up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Not sure what the Euro is doing day 8. Another runaway fish storm plowing through the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 the euro somehow just dumped 10-15 inches in this area from the March 2-3 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 i wonder if we can get that primary to trend more south with the huge block and the secondary to pop further south. Maybe New Jersey could be Northern Virginia in 48 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I have to thank below normals Chuck for willing this one south against all odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: the euro somehow just dumped 10-15 inches in this area from the March 2-3 storm The euro is so far on its own. At 72 hours it has the low due east of ocean city when the gfs has it around Boston. If this was affecting us we would be going nuts about it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The euro is so far on its own. At 72 hours it has the low due east of ocean city when the gfs has it around Boston. If this was affecting us we would be going nuts about it lol. let it keep trending south...we arnt that far from the area in jersey getting 4-6 inches lol. I always thought the mid atlantic beneifted the most from a big -NAO.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 imagine if this storm had the reverse 2001 March effect up until game time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 @psuhoffmanhow do we get this ULL to track 100-150 miles more south of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ji said: let it keep trending south...we arnt that far from the area in jersey getting 4-6 inches lol. I always thought the mid atlantic beneifted the most from a big -NAO.. Sure why not. I didn't hate the general look at h5 on the euro long range. It's in the process of caving to the gfs with the day 7 wave that the gfs lost days ago. But it's trending better for something behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 anybody want to speculate what 10 day euro is gonna do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: @psuhoffmanhow do we get this ULL to track 100-150 miles more south of us? It's starting off so far north. It's almost a miracle it digs that much. Sorry I don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: It's starting off so far north. It's almost a miracle it digs that much. Sorry I don't see it. lol everything that we generalize about -NAO has failed so far 1) cant be warm 2) all crap is forced south of us 3) no cutters 4) stuff cant plow though blocking 5) fear supression 6) High pressures cant move off shore..on and on and on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: anybody want to speculate what 10 day euro is gonna do? Try to cut but if that h5 low north of the lakes can get into 50/50 location it might force it under. It's not a bad look overall. I bet the EPS has some hits Day 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: lol everything that we generalize about -NAO has failed so far 1) cant be warm 2) all crap is forced south of us 3) no cutters 4) stuff cant plow though blocking 5) fear supression 6) High pressures cant move off shore..on and on and on Isn't a -NAO typically not a frigid cold pattern? Aren't those +PNA -EPO and sometimes -AO driven? Just asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: Isn't a -NAO typically not a frigid cold pattern? Aren't those +PNA -EPO and sometimes -AO driven? Just asking. it dosent have to be a deep cold pattern but its usually not a warm pattern. Usually -NAO is below normal temps in the east. In winter, that would be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: lol everything that we generalize about -NAO has failed so far 1) cant be warm 2) all crap is forced south of us 3) no cutters 4) stuff cant plow though blocking 5) fear supression 6) High pressures cant move off shore..on and on and on 1.Who said can't be warm? 2. Considering where that system storms it is forced south. That don't fix the awful antecedent airmass. If we had cold in place this would be a threat. The surface storm needs the baroclinicity and will go north until it hits the thermal boundary. If that was further south the surfave low would secondary sooner and we would have a storm. 3. I doubt we get cutters later in the period. This is the front side. A northern stream vort going 500 miles north isn't a cutter 4. What's doing that? 5. Not in march 6. What high pressure. No 50/50 no confluence held in north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 JI the 50/50 is more important then blocking imo. We're missing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 24 minutes ago, Ji said: i wonder if we can get that primary to trend more south with the huge block and the secondary to pop further south. Maybe New Jersey could be Northern Virginia in 48 hours lol No. It's us. In March. In 2018, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: it dosent have to be a deep cold pattern but its usually not a warm pattern. Usually -NAO is below normal temps in the east. In winter, that would be snow Could also be time of year. Obviously the -NAO hasn't helped us as of yet, but at our favored period in time we see (March 10th-15th if that holds, which it probably won't), temps average pretty warm at the airports. At March 10th, DCA averages 54 degrees as a high temperature. IAD averages 53 degrees, BWI 52. At March 15th, DCA averages 55, IAD 55, BWI 54. Those are pretty toasty. Even if we get temp anomalies of 10 degrees below normal, we're still talking about 40s during the day. If would take quite the dynamic storm to kick temps below freezing. That or good timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: No. It's us. In March. In 2018, you know when yoda isnt posting in a thread..there is no hope. Ive seen him come up with stuff out of this air to give us...like the 13z cambodian model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 00z tonight will be good I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: 00z tonight will put us in the game I think its march 2001's payback to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 39 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: 00z tonight will be good I think Ah yes...the good old fashioned forecasting a forecast model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 new Nam went from 0 to 30 inches for parts of new England in one run. That happens to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 EPS looks pretty good day 10-15. But the beginning of THE END showing up Day 15 on all guidance. Once that AK vortex develops we're on borrowed time. Maybe 4-6 days before the cold gets booted from North America and it's game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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