psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 One trend I like seeing in the short term is a return to the idea of more cold press behind the system March 2. For a while that was gone...not sure it helps us any later on but having more cold around can't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 GFS is beautiful how the storm bombs and pretty much stalls. Places in Main have 3-5" qpf. The trend that I've seen in watching many model runs of this scenario is it will go southwest and closer to the coast in future runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Well, another sh*t run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 quick someone get me the delorean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Well, another sh*t run Well at least now I know not to even check the run on TT or anywhere else. Onto the Euro I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 The word POOF keeps entering my mind..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, another sh*t run Maybe the SW holding back in the upper plains can swing around and do something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I don't know...this doesn't seem right Posted in SNE Forum: GFS is fading -NAO block SE when it's really a bias of first low pressure moving too far East. Just offshore the east coast is like a sink for low pressure and 500mb cutoffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 So much for long range being more consistent with the block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Shows exactly how we waste a block, at least it keeps the fish cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 27 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: GFS is beautiful how the storm bombs and pretty much stalls. Places in Main have 3-5" qpf. The trend that I've seen in watching many model runs of this scenario is it will go southwest and closer to the coast in future runs Dude the storm is trending NORTH on everything... the GFS now has the system NORTH OF BOSTON as 78 hours. I don't know if I buy that...and there will be adjustments from that range...but come on it would take a bust of monumental historic proportions when the trends are all going the OTHER WAY...from only a couple days out really because once that primary is way up to our Northwest and the transfer starts north of our latitude its game over no matter what happens after that... It's game over IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, another sh*t run What's wrong with it? It has 2 threats in our day 10-15 window. I thought it was a great run. Just because it lost the day 11 unicorn fantasy? Its not going to hold something like that from that range. On this specific run it takes a little longer to get the upper low across to our north into a better non suppressive 50/50 location. Because of that the day 11 thing washes out but its followed by 2 waves right behind it. There is probably time enough for 3 waves in the day 10-16 period before things break down. I don't care which one amplifies as long as I see the right setup within that window on a run and the chance for one of those waves to be "the one" its a good run IMO. Specifics don't matter when the window of opportunity is still 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Once that upper low passing to our north gets EAST of our latitude that is when the window opens. This run the gfs took another day to get there so the window and the storm was pushed back one day. The important thing was the evolution of the pattern was relatively the same. Just one day slower. That is a minor timing difference from that far away. I took this run as a win. But I can see why losing a fantasy HECS and all the pretty snow maps is disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What's wrong with it? It has 2 threats in our day 10-15 window. I thought it was a great run. Just because it lost the day 11 unicorn fantasy? Its not going to hold something like that from that range. On this specific run it takes a little longer to get the upper low across to our north into a better non suppressive 50/50 location. Because of that the day 11 thing washes out but its followed by 2 waves right behind it. There is probably time enough for 3 waves in the day 10-16 period before things break down. I don't care which one amplifies as long as I see the right setup within that window on a run and the chance for one of those waves to be "the one" its a good run IMO. Specifics don't matter when the window of opportunity is still 10 days away. Wait, you called Day 11 a unicorn, but you're talking about the 312 hour prog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What's wrong with it? It has 2 threats in our day 10-15 window. I thought it was a great run. Just because it lost the day 11 unicorn fantasy? Its not going to hold something like that from that range. On this specific run it takes a little longer to get the upper low across to our north into a better non suppressive 50/50 location. Because of that the day 11 thing washes out but its followed by 2 waves right behind it. There is probably time enough for 3 waves in the day 10-16 period before things break down. I don't care which one amplifies as long as I see the right setup within that window on a run and the chance for one of those waves to be "the one" its a good run IMO. Specifics don't matter when the window of opportunity is still 10 days away. you realize that all your snow fantasies are now happening after march 10. Maybe good for you up on the mountain but for us...its pretty much over unless its a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ji said: So much for long range being more consistent with the block Last thing Im gonna say on the op gfs run... the overall pattern was fairly consistent keeping in mind the LONG lead time were talking about. There are 3 discreet threats within our window on this run. The first gets shredded but the wave is there and there is no way to know for sure if from that range it actually gets sheared apart...if that upper low trends faster to the east OR the whole trough is sharper with less of a closed low to our north...lots of ways for that to work still...and the setup right after is nice the system just misses south a bit, same with the last wave. There is no way details will hold from range so just having opportunities that close is perfectly fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 31 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, another sh*t run 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What's wrong with it? It has 2 threats in our day 10-15 window. I thought it was a great run. Just because it lost the day 11 unicorn fantasy? Its not going to hold something like that from that range. On this specific run it takes a little longer to get the upper low across to our north into a better non suppressive 50/50 location. Because of that the day 11 thing washes out but its followed by 2 waves right behind it. There is probably time enough for 3 waves in the day 10-16 period before things break down. I don't care which one amplifies as long as I see the right setup within that window on a run and the chance for one of those waves to be "the one" its a good run IMO. Specifics don't matter when the window of opportunity is still 10 days away. 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Wait, you called Day 11 a unicorn, but you're talking about the 312 hour prog? Ok, who's the first one that's going to break out the 'Wack with a stupid stick'? PSU, Agree with you. I thought the look beyond day 10 was better. Just think people have been beaten into submission at this point. eta: Hell, I am beat up but I will soldier on till the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I think all “analysis” was tongue n cheek as most of know it’s just an op run of a fantasy storm 7+ days out. We are still allowed not to be happy cause our diggy snow went poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 we have been waiting for our day 10 storm now for 14 days and we are still 10 days out....at some point, we just have to realize nothing will make it snow here this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I think all “analysis” was tongue n cheek as most of know it’s just an op run of a fantasy storm 7+ days out. We are still allowed not to be happy cause our diggy snow went poof. I want my EPS control run back from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Wait, you called Day 11 a unicorn, but you're talking about the 312 hour prog? They are ALL unicorns...anything past day 7 or so isnt worth worrying about anything even close to details on. The general pattern is all i care about at that range. So I am happy with the run because it still looks generally favorable for a storm threat within the day 10-15 window. Last night it decided to amplify the day 11 wave and go nuts...this run it suppresses that and comes close with a wave day 12/13... I don't really care about those kinds of specifics from that range. The potential in the pattern is still there and that was what I was looking for. This right here is a good setup...thats why i don't care that it didnt lay down 20" of fantasy snow this run This look way out isnt bad either...not perfect but really close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: we have been waiting for our day 10 storm now for 14 days and we are still 10 days out....at some point, we just have to realize nothing will make it snow here this year. If only the future were so deterministic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ji said: you realize that all your snow fantasies are now happening after march 10. Maybe good for you up on the mountain but for us...its pretty much over unless its a HECS Pretty sure your area got a LOT of snow after March 10 in 1958, 1960, 1965, and 1999. All blocking analogs to right now. I said before I agree its a shame we didnt get this mid winter. I said that to Bob a few days ago. I am not stupid of course I see how getting this look mid March is not ideal. But I CANT CHANGE THAT. I am observing and discussing the weather. NOT CONTROLLING IT. It comes when it comes. Am I suppose to ignore it because its March 10? And on this run the threat is ONE FREAKING DAY LATER...is that such a big deal? Is there some climo wall between March 9 and 10th? Look I do get why its frustrating and losing the pretty blue colors from last night sucks and all but this run IMO doesn't actually lessen our threat of an ACTUAL real snowstorm at all. Thats all I am saying. I thought our chances were pretty low but way better then climo to get a big snow last night...and I still feel that way now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I have no right to tell anyone how to feel. You want to be depressed over this run thats fine. But the idea that the threat of a significant snow in the long range is lessened or gone because of this run is wrong imo. That's all. People were way too high after last night and way too low right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 14 minutes ago, Ji said: we have been waiting for our day 10 storm now for 14 days and we are still 10 days out....at some point, we just have to realize nothing will make it snow here this year. Best pattern we had was the EPO driven brutally cold and mostly dry one. At least everything was frozen. And it did actually produce some snow. Two major pattern reshuffles later, its been a near total suckfest. Mid March still holds some promise though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Perhaps 522 thicknesses are needed cause 528 isn't getting it done. March boundary layer temperatures for the loss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I have no right to tell anyone how to feel. You want to be depressed over this run thats fine. But the idea that the threat of a significant snow in the long range is lessened or gone because of this run is wrong imo. That's all. People were way too high after last night and way too low right now. I take the 12z run as a positive. Best long range run we have had in a while. Gives us multiple opportunities from day 10 through 16. Sucks that it's coming mid March but if we are going to score this late this is the look we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I have no right to tell anyone how to feel. You want to be depressed over this run thats fine. But the idea that the threat of a significant snow in the long range is lessened or gone because of this run is wrong imo. That's all. People were way too high after last night and way too low right now. Not sure many were super high off one op run of the GFS. No one should have been. Also not sure anyone is totally bummed now. Reality is this pattern is not happening as was advertised initially, but that is not a shock, and its been clear for a while now that the best threat window has been moved back significantly. Thems the breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Best pattern we had was the EPO driven brutally cold and mostly dry one. At least everything was frozen. And it did actually produce some snow. Two major pattern reshuffles later, its been a near total suckfest. Mid March still holds some promise though! I tried to argue be careful what you wish for back in January. Even if there was never going to be a mecs or HECS in that look if we had held that pattern eventually a clipper or weak wave like December 9th would have given us a lucky pass. Im not an I told you so kind so I've kept my mouth shut since but as we've been mostly in a crap shutout since with systems going way north the thought has crossed my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This right here is a good setup...thats why i don't care that it didnt lay down 20" of fantasy snow this run We could certainly score with that pattern, but it's uncomfortably close to the composite of March "total fail blocks" that you posted earlier. Could just be noise though. I'm keeping an eye on the ensembles. My short read is that it's still more likely than not that we get little to nothing, but we have a better chance of a big hit than almost any time during this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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