Morch Madness Negative NAO Long Range discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

shall we call you JI part deuce.... you sure sound like you've been training with him lately

 

 

Not at all but its basically the same pattern for the next 15 days give or take. Sure, its (the 240 thing) a slight relax with not as strong of a block but this is when we actually NEED the ridging to be stronger but it is trending weaker and farther N. The 0z GFS was able to get there due to better positioning and a stronger ridge. A few members have it but not enough to get me overly excited at 10 days out. 6z backed off the idea and the geps lost it as well. I guess if there is a solid positive you can look at on the ens means there is a +pna look with ridging downstream here. Better than the reverse. Just wish the neg NAO would hold in a favorable spot. Shame its 10 days out......still.  

 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6 hours ago, stormtracker said:

There's an L where the L is supposed to be and an H where the H is supposed to be.   Odd.

Kinda but left is right and right is left still ie the ns bias gfs says lets do the stj dominance dance and "the king" says nope....lets focus on the ns. 10 days our....we know how this song and dance will end.

The setup going into the day 8 -11 storm (depending on which model you like for timing) is eerily similar to what we have seen with this storm that is 3 or so days out. Granted I haven't looked hard into it so maybe I am off base but from what I have seen I am not particularly happy about it.

[pasnownut]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not at all but its basically the same pattern for the next 15 days give or take. Sure, its (the 240 thing) a slight relax with not as strong of a block but this is when we actually NEED the ridging to be stronger but it is trending weaker and farther N. The 0z GFS was able to get there due to better positioning and a stronger ridge. A few members have it but not enough to get me overly excited at 10 days out. 6z backed off the idea and the geps lost it as well. I guess if there is a solid positive you can look at on the ens means there is a +pna look with ridging downstream here. Better than the reverse. Just wish the neg NAO would hold in a favorable spot. Shame its 10 days out......still.  

 

 

 

I get ya.  Just bustin, but you've been down lately (and rightfully so...).

6z....off hour....toss it....

I'm like showme...not a fan of off hours (unless they show me what I want  ).

next week storm sure did go poof quick though.  well its a fishy storm now anyways.

Still think op runs are going to struggle till we get into the weekend.  JMO.

 

[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, Amped said:

Few I was getting impatient, got our 20-30". I forgot how slow things are in March. It  took almost 84 hrs from the time you saw the SW ridge start to separate the trailing SW in TX and the time it finally started snowing.

 

6 hours ago, yoda said:

Yeah, I'll take that to go please.  Hope it stays... nah, it will be gone by 06z... but damn, what a storm that would be

@Bob Chill @psuhoffman

I'm not trying to throw dirt on the fire but keep expectations in line with march. 20-30" in the 95 corridor is hard this time of year. If you move the feb 2010 storm to march it likely was 10-20 not 20-30. Ratios would be low. But the first person that complains about a foot of wet snow should be lined up and smacked with a stupid stick. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

 

I'm not trying to throw dirt on the fire but keep expectations in line with march. 20-30" in the 95 corridor is hard this time of year. If you move the feb 2010 storm to march it likely was 10-20 not 20-30. Ratios would be low. But the first person that complains about a foot of wet snow should be lined up and smacked with a stupid stick. 

even if you remove the zeros taking 20-30 to 2-3 it  can still be hard especially this year in 95 corridor.  I wouldn't complain about that either.  BTW, who currently has custody of the "stupid stick?"  I will offer to be smacked first, only by you or Bob, but there are others worthy of the same treatment.

[winterymix]

The GFS shows two opportunities at hours 288 and beyond, but boundary layer temperature issues for both.  The usual jackpotters shall yet again do the lollipop.

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, Ji said:

Told @psu that this is a hecs or bust pattern. There isn't enough cold to support even a regular 4 to 8 inch storm. It would never accumulate. We need a flat out hecs. Its our only option

I agreed with you in principle but it is possible to get a 2-4" type snow but it would have to be a thump and a storm that might be 10"+ in mid winter would be 4-8 in this pattern.  For instance if it's too warm much of the storm but heavy banding on the back side were to cool the column just enough you could get a few inches from a storm that would have been a mecs in January. 

But in general your right marginal and light events won't cut it. I'm just not gonna say 4" is impossible. But to get 4" we probably need a setup that would have produced 8" 3 weeks ago. 

[winterymix]

Hour 234 shows a little bit of accumulating snow in the mid-Atlantic.

So...yeah...10 day fantasy.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking over the overnight runs of the GFS and Euro suites and the day 3/4 is on life support and that is probably generous. Though we have seen some improvement with some secondary aspects of the setup the two key things we need to happen for any chance just aren't showing up. We need the closed low at 500 to run, at worst, through our region if not preferably south. So far we have seen that feature consistently projected to our north through PA. Second, we need the secondary surface low that forms off the coast to hang back long enough and close enough to the coast where there can be interaction between it and the 500 closed low as it swings through. We need this to occur because the cold needed would have to be manufactured by ***dynamic cooling. But what we are seeing is the coastal low is now racing out in front of the closed low and OTS. All the other secondary improvements that we have seen mean squat unless the 2 above mentioned items occur. Now there may be a wild card thrown into the mix. There are indications that a secondary coastal low tries to develop as the first coastal runs OTS. At this point about the only way I could see this working for us if it did occur is if we see enough separation between it and the first coastal but at this point that doesn't look likely.

We have known for awhile that this was a Hail Mary type deal so it should come as no surprise if this fails. Clocks ticking, so barring seeing any positive changes with the above two features or a significant shifting of the general overall setup in the next day of runs I will probably be calling time of death shortly.

 

***Dynamic Cooling: Thought I would go over this term in very simplistic terms for those who are not aware of what this means. I quite often refer to it as dragging and/or transporting cold to the lower levels of the atmosphere from the colder upper levels. Well this isn't totally accurate but I use it anyway because I am generally lazy and it conveys a general sense of what is occurring without all the typing involved in explaining it.

Quite often you hear we need the heavier rates (precip) to move the cold air downwards. But there is actually very little if any physically forcing of the cold air downwards by the precip. Instead there are two other things happening. First cooling is occurring in progressively lower levels as snow produced in the upper levels falls into the warmer layers. As it hits these warmer layers it melts and in the process it is taking heat out of the air. Once that warm level is cooled enough the snow is able to reach lower levels before melting. This process moves downward as each warm layer cools to below freezing. Now we also have another process occurring as well.  The precip occurring is caused by lifting of air in the lower levels upward. This process lowers the pressures at lower levels. Air reacts to different pressures by heating up when compressed and cooling down as pressures lessen. So in the above case lower pressures means a cooling of the air. So this is why in a dynamic cooling situation you want better rates. This means more snow falling cooling the lower levels quicker and it means that we have a more rapid movement of the air upward creating even lower pressures and greater cooling.

Nice description of the process. Unfortunately dynamical cooling doesn't actually occur(with the desired result) nearly as often as it is talked about. Give me the dry air. Evaporational cooling > dynamical cooling.

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Nice description of the process. Unfortunately dynamical cooling doesn't actually occur(with the desired result) nearly as often as its talked about. Give me the dry air. Evaporational cooling > dynamical cooling.

I agree. But cold air already in place > evaporational cooling. So I would prefer that.  

The only reason I have been discussing dynamical cooling the last few days is because that was the only snowballs chance in hell that we had a shot at seeing snow from the incoming system. Needed to see a system bombing out and stacking just off the coast (in a good spot to boot) to get the dynamics needed. But meh, what little chance we had at that seems to be quickly disappearing.

So...

Tally Ho!!! Onward to our next Fail!!!

[Scraff]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I agree. But cold air already in place > evaporational cooling. So I would prefer that.  

The only reason I have been discussing dynamical cooling the last few days is because that was the only snowballs chance in hell that we had a shot at seeing snow from the incoming system. Needed to see a system bombing out and stacking just off the coast (in a good spot to boot) to get the dynamics needed. But meh, what little chance we had at that seems to be quickly disappearing.

So...

Tally Ho!!! Onward to our next Fail!!!

The NAM was showing some snows for N MD Friday.  Maybe a trend to see where it that goes today? I’m sure the dumpster, but who knows.

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, Scraff said:

The NAM was showing some snows for N MD Friday.  Maybe a trend to see where it that goes today? I’m sure the dumpster, but who knows.

Now I know we are officially in trouble when we are counting on the 84 hr NAM to save us. 

I could see us getting some back side mood flakes but that may even be a stretch because the lower levels will probably still be crap.

[psuhoffman]

Just pointing out the gfs storm last night wasn't the same system the euro was amplifying yesterday. That's the one AFTER the day 8/9 wave.  The euro had no day 11 threat because it amplifies the day 8/9 further south.  Probably not enough space for both. The gfs keeps Day 8/9 NS dominant and basically a front here but gets the northern system into the 50/50 area to setup day 11. 

Both are way way out and so anythiings possible but I agree with the gfs evolution being more likely and if we get a legit threat the follow up wave is more likely.  The euro was by itself in digging the trough enough Day 8 to amplify something there and even it was questionable if the upper pattern really supported that Imo. 

We probably need to clear that ridging out first and get lower heights to our northeast. The PAC trough has backed off enough by then to allow digging in the east so that would be our window. History suggests the look we're going into now does evolve that way with a window of opportunity about 7-10 days after blocking sets in so the timing fits. 

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just pointing out the gfs storm last night wasn't the same system the euro was amplifying yesterday. That's the one AFTER the day 8/9 wave.  The euro had no day 11 threat because it amplifies the day 8/9 further south.  Probably not enough space for both. The gfs keeps Day 8/9 NS dominant and basically a front here but gets the northern system into the 50/50 area to setup day 11. 

Both are way way out and so anythiings possible but I agree with the gfs evolution being more likely and if we get a legit threat the follow up wave is more likely.  The euro was by itself in digging the trough enough Day 8 to amplify something there and even it was questionable if the upper pattern really supported that Imo. 

We probably need to clear that ridging out first and get lower heights to our northeast. The PAC trough has backed off enough by then to allow digging in the east so that would be our window. History suggests the look we're going into now does evolve that way with a window of opportunity about 7-10 days after blocking sets in so the timing fits. 

Great write up as usual.

I still like the 6th through 10th time frame no matter what one specific model run puts out. Over the past few days we have seen the models high light the potential. 

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Great write up as usual.

I still like the 6th through 10th time frame no matter what one specific model run puts out. Over the past few days we have seen the models high light the potential. 

no matter what the opps show (or dont), that period has long been "on the radar" as a period of interest, and to your point, nothing shows that not to be the case....whether we snow or not.

We sniff out patterns......

 

We wait........................................................

 

[ers-wxman1]

March is a month of transition. Shifting of the jet stream, more dynamic pattern evolution in general etc. I can’t remember a March going out without a decent storm threat in the last several years. Nina pattern last year yielded a mid March threat, this year may be similar. I’d be surprised to not see a coastal system evolve along the MA within the next two weeks.

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not at all but its basically the same pattern for the next 15 days give or take. Sure, its (the 240 thing) a slight relax with not as strong of a block but this is when we actually NEED the ridging to be stronger but it is trending weaker and farther N. The 0z GFS was able to get there due to better positioning and a stronger ridge. A few members have it but not enough to get me overly excited at 10 days out. 6z backed off the idea and the geps lost it as well. I guess if there is a solid positive you can look at on the ens means there is a +pna look with ridging downstream here. Better than the reverse. Just wish the neg NAO would hold in a favorable spot. Shame its 10 days out......still.  

 

 

 

Not really IMO...  it bears some similarities but its also an evolving pattern.  Over time the NAO ridge weakens but so does the EPO ridge which pulls the trough back through discontinuous retrogression enough to allow some PNA ridging and make it much easier for systems to dig into the east.  The weaker NAO ridge also allows the trough under it to be more in the 50/50 location we want and not at our latitude. That series events looks to finally get "right" about day 9.  IF, super duper bit IF, that is correct then we would have a window.  How long that window lasts depends on how long stable the EPO and NAO ridges are.  Some guidance sees to suggest that look remains stable for at least a week or more.  Other guidance immediately breaks down either the NAO ridge or retrogrades the EPO too much and allows a AK death vortex to develop towards day 15.  IF that is right its game over as the conus would get flooded with mild pac air.  That is what happened in 1962 after the ash wed storm.  That is why despite good blocking the rest of the month there was nothing to show for it anywhere in the east.  But we scored big during the short window afforded us in 1962.  IF that is how the pattern evolves we would have to do the same and get lucky with the one or two shots we get during the 3-4 day transition period as the EPO and NAO breaks down.  But the window is there... and its supported by analogs.  That is how a similar pattern evolved in the past. 

[Ji]

the 12z NAM is a disaster for New England. And to think..i was considering driving up there. Went from 16 inches to 0 in one run lol

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

the 12z NAM is a disaster for New England. And to think..i was considering driving up there. Went from 16 inches to 0 in one run lol

But I thought the models only took away fantasy snow HERE?!?!

[Ji]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

But I thought the models only took away fantasy snow HERE?!?!

they take away fantasy snow for where I will be. I truly feel like i am Jonah of the Mid atlantic...if i moved away...it would snow alot more. My wife is trying to convince me to move back to her home state..wisconsin....but they seem to get small storms and its too cold. I dont care about snow cover that much. I just like the day of the storm. i actually perfer no snow on the ground when a snowstorm starts lol. Anyway..the NAM is atrocious for New England. More snow at Garrett county lol

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Nice description of the process. Unfortunately dynamical cooling doesn't actually occur(with the desired result) nearly as often as it is talked about. Give me the dry air. Evaporational cooling > dynamical cooling.

Why  not BOTH lol... excellent write up by Showmethesnow though.  I agree with your point that evap cooling is more common and works better here but Ill take what we can get. 

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

As predicted, the 6z run is doing its own thing.

While the ground truth is very different...the 6z op gfs actually was about as much support for the 0z idea as your ever going to get at day 11.  All the general parts are there just slightly out of sync on the 6z version vs the 0z but that is noise at that range.  I wouldn't worry about the op being slightly off at that range.  What I would like to see is more ensemble support in coming runs. 

[psuhoffman]

people saying the block isnt doing anything are missing how a storm that gets up to near Chicago is exiting the east coast near Ocean City MD.  That isn't normal.  Thats blocking.  But it doesn't do us any good when there is hella ridging in front and were torching at every level.  We need to get that ridging beat down by lower heights to our northeast and THEN get a blocked system under us. 

[Ji]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

people saying the block isnt doing anything are missing how a storm that gets up to near Chicago is exiting the east coast near Ocean City MD.  That isn't normal.  Thats blocking.  But it doesn't do us any good when there is hella ridging in front and were torching at every level.  We need to get that ridging beat down by lower heights to our northeast and THEN get a blocked system under us. 

for sure...this storm on Friday is being affected by the -NAO....but as you said..there is no cold. Even when it transfers to the coast there is no cold for a while. The euro showed cold about 10 days ago. Remember it had a west track but it it somehow gave us like 8 inches due to CAD

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

for sure...this storm on Friday is being affected by the -NAO....but as you said..there is no cold. Even when it transfers to the coast there is no cold for a while. The euro showed cold about 10 days ago. Remember it had a west track but it it somehow gave us like 8 inches due to CAD

It wasn't seeing the strength of the ridging.  Both the GEFS and EPS missed the ridging that is popping up again after this storm as well.  That ridge just WANTS to be there... if the models are messing that up again then our day 10-15 window will evaporate too.  But this time other indicators do favor troughing in the east...but we will see.  Bob has the right idea here...just let it play out. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It wasn't seeing the strength of the ridging.  Both the GEFS and EPS missed the ridging that is popping up again after this storm as well.  That ridge just WANTS to be there... if the models are messing that up again then our day 10-15 window will evaporate too.  But this time other indicators do favor troughing in the east...but we will see.  Bob has the right idea here...just let it play out. 

Should i be concerned that we lasted in MJO phase 8 and Phase 1 for like 19 seconds. Look how long we stayed in phase 7. Everything that can possibly go wrong this year is going wrong. 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Should i be concerned that we lasted in MJO phase 8 and Phase 1 for like 19 seconds. Look how long we stayed in phase 7. Everything that can possibly go wrong this year is going wrong. 

I am more concerned that we are in the middle of "cold" phases with a pretty high amplitude wave right now and it has done us absolutely no good.  I will be honest I busted with that.  The MJO waves have correlated with our temperature cycles all season so when we started to head back into cold I bought in...and of course this time there seems to be no response. 

There was something JB pointed out a few days ago I think about how the SST's have evolved in the eastern PAC.  The warming there actually isnt good... you want the tropical forcing located further west.  West based Nina's and east based Nina's are better for us.  No matter the base state we want the warmer anomalies to the west.  I do wonder if that is hurting us right now.  But of course in typical JB fashion it throws out a good reason why "cold wont work" but then goes with cold and snow anyways lol.

He did that last year also when he pointed out how the solar qbo combo wasn't good for cold in the east...then rode with his winter forecast as it was busting straight down the drains anyways.  It's why I think he isnt biased but is actually lying to people.  He sees the evidence...he even points it out...then ignores it.  I don't think he is that stupid.  I think he slips in a nugget of truth here and there...so he can use is as the "why his forecast was wrong" later...but then says what everyone wants to hear to keep them coming back for more. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Trough in the SW always goes further southwest as we get closer., this is the model trend of last 10 years. Odds of this going out to sea are very slim because of persistence of Atlantic ridge. Maybe it comes back SW but it's a blizzard setup... (1st storm) probably 2nd storm too. Also unlikely the low goes so far north because of moisture and initial low placement. it might bomb moving SE, jackpoting us and Philly, pretty much missing NYC and SNE. That's my call  

[Interstate]

Well let hope the March 2nd storm becomes our 50/50... it keeps gaining latitude.

 

Doesn't look like it... I guess it is wrecks everything else

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

564-576 NAO block north, underneath amplified Atlantic tropical ridge