CAPE Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 18 minutes ago, Amped said: When combinend with the 50/50 low there's a NW flow and it's hard for the low to pump up moisture. Yeah I'll go with that vortex moving southward under the block being the bigger issue than the ridging to the SW of the wave. Freaking buzz saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 39 minutes ago, Ji said: well that sucks...next. 3-5 in March is like 1-2 in January Since we aren't really looking for anything substantial until after March 5th, I would think that anything before that would be a nice appetizer. Besides, in Fairfax County, we haven't had more than 3 inches of snow at a time this season, so I will take 3-5 if that's all I'll get. I am holding out hope for a March Coastal though. A March HECS would be fantastic! I would like like to say that I appreciate all discussion, even if it is a little early to really know much until the pattern changes Every bit gives me a glimmer of hope for some actual snow before the season is over. Optimism is much more helpful in this forum than pessimism. I'm learning a great deal from the wealth of knowledge around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Since we aren't really looking for anything substantial until after March 5th, I would think that anything before that would be a nice appetizer. Besides, in Fairfax County, we haven't had more than 3 inches of snow at a time this season, so I will take 3-5 if that's all I'll get. I am holding out hope for a March Coastal though. A March HECS would be fantastic! I would like like to say that I appreciate all discussion, even if it is a little early to really know much until the pattern changes Every bit gives me a glimmer of hope for some actual snow before the season is over. Optimism is much more helpful in this forum than pessimism. I'm learning a great deal from the wealth of knowledge around here. I’d be happy to track something for a long time that delivers. Maybe the block will do something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2018 Author Share Posted February 21, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Heaviest snow from your yard through DC to Annapolis though. 5" Lock it up? march 1999 was an analog i kept seeing on EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ji said: march 1999 was an analog i kept seeing on EPS CPC analogs have been showing the Ash Wed analog for 3 days straight. lol. Some other notable March periods as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: CPC analogs have been showing the Ash Wed analog for 3 days straight. lol. Some other notable March periods as well. Any auto-updated analogs are overrated imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2018 Author Share Posted February 21, 2018 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CPC analogs have been showing the Ash Wed analog for 3 days straight. lol. Some other notable March periods as well. i would be okay with a March 1999 appetizer followed By ash wednesday and concluding with March 1958 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 '93? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 22 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Any auto-updated analogs are overrated imo. I disagree. The cpc superensemble analogs have added solid value when looking at the long range and judging opportunity. CIPS analogs have added solid value with med to short range stuff. The correlation is imortant becuase a loose fitting group of analogs doesn't carry much weight but when the correlation is above .90 and three of the top 5 produced snow within a 3 day centered mean then it's meaningul and useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, Dan76 said: '93? March 1993 was a triple phased superstorm. I don't think this pattern is at all similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I disagree. The cpc superensemble analogs have added solid value when looking at the long range and judging opportunity. CIPS analogs have added solid value with med to short range stuff. The correlation is imortant becuase a loose fitting group of analogs doesn't carry much weight but when the correlation is above .90 and three of the top 5 produced snow within a 3 day centered mean then it's meaningul and useful. Why are so many different years generated with each update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Moving this conversation to the new thread... 5 hours ago, psuhoffman said: The one thing that most of the March blocking wins had in common was ridging west or southwest of Alaska in the WPO domain. We seem to have that this time too. Most of the total fail blocks had troughs there. I've done no deeper study or readings into it it's just what sticks out when looking at all the analogs that are essentially similar over the Atlantic and N Am and trying to say "so where is the difference" and it's the only thing that stuck out with any consistency. Could be a coincidence though. Thought it was worth noting and see what others think. Looks about right. Here's a composite of the good years you listed. And here's a composite of the bad ones. And here's the GEFS from March 4th to 9th this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Why are so many different years generated with each update? Probably because there is a large sample pool it's drawing from. Small changes in patterns can yield a different selection of analogs pretty easily - especially if you add a ton of potential analogs to the mix in the "available pool" - the atmosphere is complex - it's not going to be a rock solid list at long leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, cae said: Moving this conversation to the new thread... Looks about right. Here's a composite of the good years you listed. And here's a composite of the bad ones. And here's the GEFS from March 4th to 9th this year. How do you look at the old maps like that? Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: How do you look at the old maps like that? Link? https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 21 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Why are so many different years generated with each update? Cpc is for getting an idea of specific sensible wx during a specific period of time. The years aren't analogs in their entirety. Just the 2-3 days before and after the specific date stamp. When you start seeing notable past storms falling within 2-3 days of the date stamps it means things are ripe. Conversely, when an op run shows a big storm but cpc analogs don't show any storms then the op run is an unlikely scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Ji said: march 1999 was an analog i kept seeing on EPS Who has EPS analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2018 Author Share Posted February 21, 2018 Who has EPS analogs?@ian on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: I’d be happy to track something for a long time that delivers. Maybe the block will do something good. As I've gotten more familiar with tracking our winter wx around here...I'm realizing how much a gift January 2016 was in that regard, lol I mean how often do you see all models in agreement from like 8 days out like that? (It's kinda rare, isn't it? Or was it more of a product of the textbook look we had with that one?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: As I've gotten more familiar with tracking our winter wx around here...I'm realizing how much a gift January 2016 was in that regard, lol I mean how often do us see all models in agreement from like 8 days out like that? (It's kinda rare, isn't it? Or was it more of a product of the textbook look we had with that one?) Both. Mostly gift. Never again that easy my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 30 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Both. Mostly gift. Never again that easy my opinion. How was it in the 2009-10 season? Were any of those storms slam-dunk tracking? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: How was it in the 2009-10 season? We're any of those storms slam-dunk tracking? Lol also curious on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Both. Mostly gift. Never again that easy my opinion. Don't tell that to the 1993 Storm of the Century. That was well modeled at range. It happens and will happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: also curious on this. The larger the potential, the greater the lead time imo. Feb 2010 had a 7 day lead time for the big one iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: How was it in the 2009-10 season? We're any of those storms slam-dunk tracking? Lol Dec 09 was good from what I recall. Rare that we get textbook for more than 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: How was it in the 2009-10 season? We're any of those storms slam-dunk tracking? Lol I think the Dec 2009 storm didn't lock in until 3 days before. Feb 2010 was very well forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Yeah, it would be nice to see this fill in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Paq Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: How was it in the 2009-10 season? We're any of those storms slam-dunk tracking? Lol I seem to the first February storm being pretty well dialed in by about 5 days out, but I'm certain one of our more diligent members recalls better than I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 93' was nailed a solid 6 days out easy that I can remember. That's what they say on its Documentary too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 93' was nailed a solid 6 days out easy that I can remember. Tracking over the years I have followed storm signals with distinct 2-3 day windows from 10+ days out. Where they initially were a weak signal and strengthened as they neared in time. The number that actually verified is not an insignificant number. And yet they get forgotten because either did not produce snow for our region or they were not what would be considered major newsworthy storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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